RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 350
CURRENT ADP: ~401 overall
ANALYSIS: Sure, the 4.11 ERA doesn't look overly impressive. That being said, this is why, especially for relievers, you have to look past the ERA. With a 29% strikeout rate and a 5.4% walk rate, his K-BB numbers were quite impressive, leading to him generating a 3.37 SIERA last season. The 0.91 WHIP is going to regress with a higher BABIP allowed (.226), but it still likely is going to be quite low given his ability to consistently not walk batters.
Wells' curveball was largely ineffective when he did throw it last year, as was his sinker. By June, he was barely throwing either pitch. In 2022, I'd like to see Wells continue to lean less on his fastball, as he did towards to end of the season. His slider and changeup each induced whiffs 31.6% of the swings against it, as well as xwOBAs of .222 and .252, respectively. That being said, he has a strong three-pitch foundation to build upon.
Though Wells' BABIP allowed was very low, so was his 64.4% left-on-base rate. That should improve this season, while his batted-ball metrics (11% barrel rate) could improve with better command and simply better luck. The change in ballpark dimensions at Oriole Park is going to do wonders for him in terms of surprising home runs, and there isn't much competition on the active roster in terms of saves- Cole Sulser (eight saves) is the top competitor. The Orioles might not be the type of team to chase saves from, but when he has an average draft position (ADP) of 401, 15-20 saves could be extremely beneficial. As a late-round pick, you can't do much better.
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