RADIO
Week 1 of the NFL season is here! If you aren’t pumped up that we are finally here well…. You probably aren’t reading this article! This will be a weekly feature where I go through three recommended stacks to consider for your GPP lineups this week. Before just diving into the picks, thought I should share generally what I am looking for when recommending stacks:
I want games with high point-scoring totals and close point spreads. The scoring part is obvious (more scoring = more fantasy points) but the game being close makes a bring-back player viable and keeps the team that is up playing with urgency throughout the game.
I generally want to fade a stack combination that is projected to be the most popular in the slate. This means I may choose to stack up that team differently than the crowd, or I may do an outright fade. With that said, onto the picks!
(1) Arizona or (2) Tennessee
It will be interesting here to see how popular this game is. It has the second-highest total on the slate and it has a tight point spread, meaning it has a chance to be the highest-scoring game on the slate and to be a shoot-out. I would be fine with rostering either side of this game. I imagine the Arizona side will be less popular. Arizona did have the third-fastest pace in the NFL last year, however, on the road, they were close to league average at 18th. This will be something to watch this season.
Tennesse’s cornerbacks are average in the league at best. DeAndre Hopkins will be facing Janoris Jenkins and Kristian Fulton the majority of the time in this game. Jenkins has been known to give up fantasy points and Fulton is a young corner getting experience in the league.
On the flip side, Arizona’s defensive backfield isn’t much better. They do have Byron Murphy Jr., who is one of the better young CBs in the league right now. Malcolm Butler is a liability and will be tasked with defending A.J. Brown and Julio Jones all afternoon.
The nice thing about a potential Tennessee stack is that Derrick Henry is often a popular play because of all the volume he commands. I do not think the casual crowd is up to date on the fact that the Titan's defense is going to be below average, which will force Tennessee to throw more. With the news of Tannehill missing time due to Covid (he is back now), people may want to shy away from Tennessee in Week 1. Additionally, do you think they would have traded for Julio Jones had they the intention of being very run-heavy?
If you stack Tennesee, it's Ryan Tannehill - A.J. Brown - Julio Jones. I'd consider either Deandre Hopkins (if you can afford it) or Christian Kirk for the bring-back player. A.J. Green is hard for me to get excited about at age 33. Hopkins was third in the NFL in target share at 29%. For an Arizona stack, it's Kyler Murray - Deandre Hopkins - Christian Kirk for me with one of A.J. Brown or Julio Jones as the bring-back player depending on what I can afford in salary.
(3) Buffalo Bills
While the 48 point game total isn't a stand-out on its own, Buffalo has one of the higher implied totals on the slate due to the larger spread. In 2020, Buffalo had the 11th highest pass play percentage at 61.71%. At the end of the season, they were nearly at 70%. Pittsburgh was second in pass play percentage at 65.48% and was 7th in offensive plays per game at 66.3%. We have a home favorite that is going to want to pass frequently, combined with a road underdog that passes even more frequently and will likely play at a fast pace. There is some potential with this game. Throw into the mix that Josh Allen has rushing TD upside, and having a Buffalo Bills lineup will be a necessity for me in Week 1.
As far as stacks go, I would go with Allen - Diggs - Beasley. Diggs was second in the NFL with a 29.7% target share and Cole Beasley was at a 19.9% target share. Diontae Johnson or JuJu Smith-Schuster would be who I'd want to have as my bring-back player. Last year when these teams faced off, Juju had six catches for 55 yards and one touchdown, while Johnson had 4 catches for 40 yards. The reverse could easily be true.
BONUS: Cincinnati Bengals
For a tournament in a situation when one is setting multiple lineups, this is my type of stack. The point total is 6th out of 13 games, nothing huge is standing out. We saw and heard of Joe Burrow’s struggles. There are concerns for the Bengals’ offensive line. There is this sense that because the Vikings have a defensive head coach in Zimmer that their defense will be good.
Here’s the thing though: Minnesota’s secondary isn’t good. Patrick Peterson isn't the same player as he used to be. It’s kind of crazy to think because we remember how great Peterson was in his prime. Bashaud Breeland is an upgrade for Minnesota and as of right now their best CB on the roster; he should be able to hold his own, but he is just one guy out of three talented receivers in Cincinnati.
This Cincinnati stack has fragility: Minnesota wants to run the ball first. If they get up a couple of scores, the pace of this game will slow down. Burrow hasn’t looked great this preseason coming back from injury as noted before. Cincinnati’s offensive line still isn’t good. If the game has the scoring and the spread true to the bookmakers, there will be some fantasy goodness. There is also a pathway to disappointment. Use this stack only in situations where setting multiple lineups in your tournament.
What About Kansas City Though?
Me leaving off the highest total and the highest implied total on the slate was not a coincidence. With Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce all being over $8k on both DraftKings and Fanduel, it is difficult to create a good stack and have enough leftover money to build a competitive lineup in my opinion. If you are able to do it, I would highly encourage you to do so. If you were to build with Mahomes, Hill/Kelce, and Mecole Hardman, is that a lineup you feel confident about?
Final Thoughts
To close, there are a lot of different directions one can go with stacks. There are potential options not listed but these are just a handful I wanted to mention based on what I am interested in playing. I encourage you to do your own research, play around with different lineup combinations on DraftKings and Fanduel and see how your lineups look with these various stacks in them.
Thanks for reading, and I wish you the best of luck with your Week 1 DFS Stacks!
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