RADIO
Welcome back to another week of NFL DFS GPP Stacks! This is where I talk about the slate and give three stacks you should consider for your GPP lineups!
I generally make 3-5 lineups, because it is hard to nail every stack. I use a different stack for each GPP lineup and hope one of them pops to the top of the standings! If I win a GPP with one lineup and do not cash in the other six, I will still have a very nice day and win a good chunk of cash!
Before just diving into the picks for this week, some reminders about guidelines I use for stacks:
I want games with high point-scoring totals and close point spreads. The scoring part is obvious (more scoring = more fantasy points) but the game being close makes a bring-back player viable and keeps the team that is up playing with urgency throughout the game.
I generally want to fade a stack combination that is projected to be the most popular in the slate. This means I may choose to stack up that team different from the crowd, or I may do an outright fade. With that said, onto the picks!
Slate Context
This is something I think is important to look at when considering stacks for your lineups. For the main Sunday slate, 12 games are being played with just two games having points totals above 50 points. What we could see is consolidated percent rostered and perhaps some good leverage opportunities.
(1) Los Angeles Rams
If you are not rostering Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp every single week, then you have not been playing NFL DFS correctly. Yes, the numbers are crazy. Kupp has a 33.6% target share and he has 45% of the wide receiver targets. Houston has a better pass defense than Detroit, allowing 246.3 passing yards per game but is still just No. 18 in the league in pass defense.
If looking to get away from Kupp, I do not think it is bad to pair Stafford with Woods instead of Kupp, especially in large-field GPPs. In a small field GPP, I would rather pair Stafford with Kupp and look for leverage somewhere else. Because Kupp is now getting so expensive, his percent rostered will be kept at bay more than it was when he is in the $7k range, so you might be leveraged enough by using that pairing alone.
(2) Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen always is viable because of his rushing ability to provide a high floor along with a high ceiling. Stefon Diggs quietly has a 27% target share which is good. He was at 29.1% last year and was an absolute fantasy stud. Miami had a good passing defense in the past, but I am not certain that people have picked up on the fact that their pass defense is not good this year. Miami is No. 30 in opponent passing yards per game, allowing 297.1 passing yards per game.
The only potential downside to this game is Buffalo has been more run-heavy than they were last year. In 2020, Buffalo passed the ball 61.71% of the time, and in 2021 they are passing the ball 57.28% of the time. Miami's run defense is No. 19 in the league, so it is possible Buffalo is run-heavy and has success against it. If Buffalo builds a lead early on the ground or from their defense, this stack will fail.
As far as pairings and stacks go, I'd consider Allen-Diggs, Allen-Diggs-Beasley, Allen-Diggs-Sanders. I do not think a bring-back is necessary for this game. I believe this game has blow-out potential and by stacking the Bills we are hoping the blowout comes in the form of production from Allen and the receiving corps.
(3) Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati also plays at a slower pace than most like to target as they pass the ball just 55.29% of the time, which is No. 24 in the NFL. Ja'Marr Chase is also getting more expensive: $8.2K on FanDuel and $7.5K on DraftKings. Coming off a 15 target week last week, being priced in the mid tier, I anticipate Tee Higgins to be more popular than Chase.
Chase has more upside and is the better talent and is a good way to leverage on a field that might have Higgins in their lineup as a one-off. I do not anticipate this stack being popular as the game total is just 43 points. The total is being suppressed by the Jets having an inept offense. I think Cincinnati can score four or five touchdowns in this game. The Jets are No. 25 in both pass and run defense, and with a likely blowout, there is a risk that the run game is the way the Bengals score.
I would not stack Cincinnati if I was playing just one lineup, but I would consider them if I was making at least three lineups on the slate, and this is the type of stack I would play in a large field GPP. I would consider Burrow-Chase, Burrow-Chase-Higgins or, I would also consider Burrow-Chase-Boyd if trying to get away from a chalky Higgins.
Final Thoughts
There is a small percentage of games that are above 50 points, so a way to get different from the field is to target games in the 40s and to target good players that are being less rostered because they are expensive. Stafford and Kupp have a high chance of being the best pairing on the entire slate, however, due to price they are not going to be as popular to have as others. A similar thing can be said about Allen and Diggs. Both of these players are capable of breaking a slate or at least having a big game from a fantasy scoring perspective. Because they are expensive they will likely not be as popular as they have been in the past.
If I am going to get different from the field in a tournament, I would rather do it by spending up on players in the stack than to punt a stack and hope it hits.
Thanks for reading, and I wish you the best of luck with your Week 8 DFS Stacks!
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