RADIO
Welcome back to another week of NFL DFS GPP Stacks! This is where I talk about the slate and give three stacks you should consider for your GPP lineups!
I generally make 3-5 lineups, because it is hard to nail every stack. I use a different stack for each GPP lineup and hope one of them pops to the top of the standings! If I win a GPP with one lineup and do not cash in the other six, I will still have a very nice day and win a good chunk of cash!
Before just diving into the picks for this week, some reminders about guidelines I use for stacks:
I want games with high point-scoring totals and close point spreads. The scoring part is obvious (more scoring = more fantasy points), but the game being close makes a bring-back player viable and keeps the team that is up playing with urgency throughout the game.
I generally want to fade a stack combination that is projected to be the most popular in the slate. This means I may choose to stack up that team different from the crowd, or I may do an outright fade. With that said, on to the picks!
Week 14 Slate Context
This is something I think is important to look at when considering stacks for your lineups. This is an 11 game-slate yet again. Bills-Buccaneers has the highest total by far at 53.5 points. The next highest is 49ers -Bengals at 48.5 points.
(1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Looking at the numbers, I would expect Tampa Bay to be uber chalky but I am not sure if they will be based on initial ownership projections. Tampa Bay is No. 1 in pass play frequency with 66.92% of their plays being passing plays. They are also No. 1 with 311.1 passing yards per game. Brady-Godwin-Fournette or Brady-Gronkowski-Fournette is the way to go. I am not certain whether people are catching on with the running back as part of the stack here, but Fournette averages 5.8 targets per game and provides a nice floor.
Buffalo has the No. 1 pass defense in the league, allowing 165.3 yards per game through the air. This stat might be driving popularity down for this game. I believe that Tampa Bay is matchup proof and I will have one Tampa Bay lineup this week.
(2) Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is always viable to stack every single week. They are No. 4 in pass play percentage (63.70%), and tied for No. 5 in passing yards per game (281.1 yards/game). Las Vegas has the No. 13 passing defense and Kansas City is in a great spot to put up fantasy points. The biggest deterrent to stacking them is their price. It will be easier to pair one of Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce with Patrick Mahomes vs. stacking up these three players.
This game has a 48 point total, which is one of the four or five highest totals. The downside here is Kansas City is a 10 point favorite. If they get up two scores at halftime, will they continue to be aggressive? I will take the chance, the opportunity to play one of the top passing offenses in the league on a slate they may be less popular than they should be, sounds like a potentially great spot to be in.
It is difficult to beat opponents in DFS tournaments by playing bad players that just have good games. It's much more simple to target good players that are being overlooked that have the upside to take you to the top, which is exactly what Kansas City is.
(3) Dallas Cowboys
It seems as if nobody is talking about Dallas much in the DFS circles. Dallas is No. 4 in passing yards per game (287.3) while being No. 14 in pass play percentage. This week they go against Washington, a team with the No. 3 run defense but the No. 30 pass defense. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard are banged up. The Cowboys signed Ito Smith this week. Who says they don't just decide to put the game in Dak Prescott's hands and throw the ball 50 times against Washington?
Prescott-Lamb or Prescott-Lamb-Cooper are very viable this week, especially with Amari Cooper being so cheap this week. This is a stack that will be below 10% rostered in tournaments and could be below 5% even depending on what contest you are in.
This game has a 48 point total, which is one of the higher ones on the slate. Dallas is favored by just four points at the time of this writing. If I am playing three or more lineups, I will have a Dallas stack in there.
Thanks for reading, and I wish you the best of luck with your Week 14 DFS Stacks!
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