RADIO
Welcome back to another week of NFL DFS GPP Stacks! This is where I talk about the slate and give three stacks you should consider for your GPP lineups!
I generally make 3-5 lineups, because it is hard to nail every stack. I use a different stack for each GPP lineup and hope one of them pops to the top of the standings! If I win a GPP with one lineup and do not cash in the other six, I will still have a very nice day and win a good chunk of cash!
Before just diving into the picks for this week, some reminders about guidelines I use for stacks:
I want games with high point-scoring totals and close point spreads. The scoring part is obvious (more scoring = more fantasy points) but the game being close makes a bring-back player viable and keeps the team that is up playing with urgency throughout the game.
I generally want to fade a stack combination that is projected to be the most popular in the slate. This means I may choose to stack up that team different from the crowd, or I may do an outright fade. With that said, onto the picks!
Slate Context
This is something I think is important to look at when considering stacks for your lineups. For the main Sunday slate, 11 games are being played. The highest total, Eagles vs. Chargers, is the highest total on the slate at 50 points, and after that, there are two other games at 49.5 points. I expect those games to be the most popular.
(1) Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City, sitting at 4-4, is trying to salvage their season. They will face a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers, and the game has a 48 point total. I do not expect this game to be very popular. Kansas City is a 6.5 point favorite, but given the tough start to the season and playing in front of their home fans, I could see them wanting to continue to put up points throughout the game. Tyreek Hill has a 28.13% target share, and Travis Kelce has a 22.5% target share. I imagine especially in Single Entry and 3-Max contests, most will look to roster teams in the 49.5-50 point total games. Kansas City is always a threat to be the top stack of the week and having the opportunity to have Kansas City when they are likely to not be in the top five rostered stacks, I am in.
(2) Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott is back and ready to take on a wounded Denver Broncos team. I am curious to see what the percent rostered will be in this game. The game has one of the highest totals on the slate at 49.5. At the same time, Denver is known for having a pretty solid defense and those that watched Sunday Night Football last week might believe Dallas has a strong defense as well (instead of realizing Minnesota was just inept).
The way to beat Denver, which Dallas is very likely to do, is through the air. Denver allows 234.6 passing yards per game, which is No. 17 in the league. Denver's rush defense is No. 9. Von Miller is gone, Bradley Chubb is still out, Dallas should be able to handle Denver's pass rush and have success on the day through the air.
The word of caution on this stack is Dallas is No. 25 in pass play percentage at 55.33%. If Dallas storms out to a large lead, they may abandon the passing game. If I run a Dallas stack, I will likely have Ezekiel Elliott in a different lineup to cover my bases here. I also like the Cowboys' defense in this one, as Garrett Bolles sat out of another practice and Denver will become predictable with increased chances of turning the ball over and getting sacked.
(3) Los Angeles Chargers
This game has the highest total on the slate once Aaron Rodgers was ruled out this week against Kansas City. This is another great place to go with tournaments. Typically the highest total game will be the most popular, but given the fact that Justin Herbert has struggled the past couple of weeks, it will likely drive people away from rostering Chargers. On the other side, Philadelphia has the No. 27 passing offense, averaging 216.4 passing yards per game. The Chargers are No. 7 in passing offense, averaging 271.9 per game. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler are all viable to be included in the stack.
Final Thoughts
About 25% of the games on the slate have a similar point total. The Chargers are probably not popular enough, based on projections as of this writing, because of their struggles the past couple of weeks. This slate overall is very strange, not a lot of competitive games. The best way to approach this week is to roster talented players and hope they come through, regardless of what they have done recently. I believe in the upside of Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert, and am wanting to go that direction this week, rather than try to rely on a volatile quarterback in my GPPs. Mahomes and Herbert are viewed as damaged or broken and that can create leverage opportunities as they are likely to be less popular than they should be.
Thanks for reading, and I wish you the best of luck with your Week 9 DFS Stacks!
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