RADIO
The Week 15 wide receiver matchups article was not the greatest. The only positives were Robert Woods who finished as WR-7 and Terry McLaurin who had 14.7 fantasy points. Allen Robinson appeared to be on his way to a decent showing with four catches for 83 yards off of just five targets, but David Montgomery crushed the Vikings Defense on the ground as the Bears offense went primarily through him. Gabriel Davis was a dud as Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley hogged all of the targets during the Bills' route of the Denver Broncos and Matthew Stafford ended up playing for Detroit so the Danny Amendola-angle didn't work out. Lynn Bowden Jr. led the Dolphins in catches last week with six, but Tua Tagovailoa only needed to throw the ball 26 times as the Dolphins controlled the game against the Patriots, limiting his upside. Jalen Reagor hurt his ankle in-game which limited his production, Christian Kirk was only targeted four times and Donovan Peoples-Jones never really had a chance because the Giants weren't competitive which meant the Browns didn't need to push the ball through the air.
Nothing is more important than evaluating matchups when making lineup decisions. From a yardage standpoint, the Jaguars, Lions, Jets, Texans and Falcons Defenses are giving up the most yards-per-pass which means they aren't great against the pass on a per-play basis. The Falcons, Vikings, Seahawks, Lions and Bengals Defenses have given up the most explosive pass plays in the league which means big-play wide receivers are likely to have good games against those defenses. Through 15 weeks of the season the Seahawks, Falcons, Titans, Lions and Cowboys Defenses are giving up the most fantasy points to wide receivers which makes them units you want to exploit.
Now, here are the top WR vs CB matchups for Week 16. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge in the DFS games.
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Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
$5,200 FanDuel / $3,300 DraftKings - vs Nik Needham
Hunter Renfrow plays primarily out of the slot which means he will avoid Byron Jones and Xavien Howard in coverage against the Dolphins this week. Instead, Renfrow will see Nik Needham in coverage on the majority of routes he runs. Needham has been giving up a 68% catch-rate and 1.47 yards-per-route covered and given the matchups, the Raiders passing game will likely run through Darren Waller and Renfrow this week.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins
$6,400 FanDuel / $5,500 DraftKings - vs Trayvon Mullen
DeVante Parker should be returning to the lineup for the Dolphins this weekend and he figures to do so against a Raiders defense that's been struggling against the run and the pass. Since Week 11, the Raiders have given up at least 13 fantasy points to Jalen Guyton, Tyron Johnson, T.Y. Hilton, Jamison Crowder, Calvin Ridley and Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins have been a run-heavy team since Tua Tagovailoa took over as their starting quarterback, but as we saw in Week 15, the Raiders may sellout to stop the run and force the Dolphins to throw the ball. If that happens, Parker will be the No. 1 target in the Dolphins passing game against a secondary that's struggling badly.
UPDATE: DeVante Parker has been ruled out.
Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
$9,400 FanDuel / $9,000 DraftKings - vs Isaiah Oliver
Atlanta has been absolutely terrible against the pass this year and have given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. In Week 15 alone, the Atlanta Defense surrendered 13.6 fantasy points to Chris Godwin, 17 to Mike Evans and 20.3 to Antonio Brown. Since their bye in Week 10, the Falcons have given up at least 13 fantasy points to nine different wide receivers. The Falcons have also given up 55 explosive plays through the passing game which is second-most in the NFL this year. The last time I checked, Tyreek Hill is explosive and he has a quarterback that can get him the ball deep, making him extremely dangerous against this defense.
Pivot: Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs - $5,100 FD / $3,900 DK – vs Kendall Sheffield
The Falcons Defense is bad against the pass in general and it's very likely that multiple Chiefs pass-catchers come through in this contest. Tyreek Hill will play but he was on the injury report this week with a sore hamstring. If the idea of playing Hill in DFS makes you uneasy, Demarcus Robinson will see Kendall Sheffield in coverage who surrenders 2.16 yards-per-route covered which is the second-worst mark in the league.
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
$6,000 FanDuel / $5,900 DraftKings - vs Rock Ya-Sin
While the Colts Defense has been fairly solid against the pass this year, they have given up 47 explosive pass plays which is eighth-most in the league. Chase Claypool is Pittsburgh's deep-threat so he may be able to take advantage of the Colts vulnerabilities. Claypool figures to see Rock Ya-Sin in coverage this weekend who has been the weak-link in the Colts secondary, giving up 1.7 yards-per-route covered which is sixth-worst in the NFL. The Steelers may have looked bad on offense over the last few weeks but they need to have a good showing and win to stay in first place in the AFC North with the Browns right behind them. The Steelers struggling running game won't have any success on the ground against the Colts who give up just 3.8 yards-per-carry, so they will be throwing a lot in this contest.
Cooper Kupp, L.A. Rams
$6,800 FanDuel / $6,600 DraftKings - vs Ugo Amadi
In Week 10 the Rams defeated the Seahawks 23-16. While Cooper Kupp had a modest game with just five catches for 50 yards, the Rams did have success against the Seahawks through the air as Jared Goff threw for 302 yards. Seattle has been better defending the pass over the last few weeks, but they're still vulnerable against slot receivers which makes Cooper Kupp appealing. Another positive for Kupp and the other Rams receivers is that no running backs have really been getting it done against the Seahawks Defense on the ground unless they score or catch several passes, which means the Rams offense should go through their receivers this week.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
$6,000 FanDuel / $5,300 DraftKings - vs Nickell Robey-Coleman
The Eagles Defense has been struggling but they are capable of shutting down the run, as they did in Week 14 against the Saints. The Eagles give up just 4.2 yards-per-carry which is 11th-best in the league, compared to 7.7 yards-per-pass which is seventh-worst in the league, leading us to believe that the Cowboys will have success throwing on them rather than running. Darius Slay is back at practice and is set to make his return this week which means he will likely cover Amari Cooper for most of the day. This leaves Nickell Roby-Coleman, who has given up an 81% catch-rate and 1.33 yards-per-route covered, to cover the explosive-rookie CeeDee Lamb.
Keke Coutee, Houston Texans
$6,100 FanDuel / $5,400 DraftKings – vs Mackensie Alexander
Earlier this season the Bengals defense was considered the worst run defense in the league. However, in recent weeks, the Bengals have sold out to stop the run and are now giving up 4.6 yards-per-carry which is down about a half-yard from where they were earlier this year. The Texans struggle to run the ball as it is, which means they will need to throw. Brandin Cooks should draw coverage from William Jackson which means Keke Coutee should be heavily involved in the passing game because he will be facing Mackensie Alexander who gives up a 72% catch-rate.
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