RADIO
In Week 7, a good number of the wide receivers that registered top-12 production were not the usual cast of characters. The No.1 wide receiver on the week was Marvin Jones who turned four of his 10 catches into touchdowns. Zach Pascal scored two touchdowns finishing as the No. 2 receiver on the week, while Alex Erickson had the best game of his career, finishing as the No. 8 wide receiver. Studs such as T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas and Allen Robinson all had solid games and finished in the top-12 as well, but we have grown to expect WR1 production from those receivers unless they have prohibitive matchups.
Cooper Kupp had an incredible matchup in Week 7 against a terrible Falcons secondary, but he came up small with just 11-PPR points. Kupp's poor performance resulted, in part, because Jared Goff's pass touchdowns went to Gerald Everett and Todd Gurley. It's also worth noting that the Rams blew out the Falcons 37-10 which meant Goff didn't need to put the ball in the air very much, which contributed to Kupp's lack of volume. Both Larry Fitzgerald and Damiere Byrd came up extremely small in Week 7 as the Cardinals controlled the ball on the ground and only threw the ball 21 times. Although Byrd put up a stinker of a game (1 catch, 4 yards), he did play 80% of the snaps in his second game back from injury, which is an encouraging sign for his future outlook. Here is a complete statistical recap of the Week 7 recommendations:
- Cooper Kupp - 8 targets, 6 catches, 50 yards
- Pivot: Brandin Cooks - 7 targets, 4 catches, 59 yards
- T.Y. Hilton - 11 targets, 6 catches, 74 yards, 1 TD
- John Brown - 6 targets, 5 catches, 83 yards, 1 TD
- Golden Tate - 11 targets, 6 catches, 80 yards
- DJ Chark - 4 targets, 3 catches, 53 yards
- Larry Fitzgerald - 3 targets, 1 catch, 12 yards
- Pivot: Damiere Byrd - 2 targets, 1 catch, 4 yards
In Week 7, I also highlighted several low-end options that had a chance to have big games. Dante Pettis and Terry McLaurin had terrible games while playing on a sloppy playing surface, while Adam Humphries had a modest four-catch effort in his first game with the Tennessee Titans new starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Chicago Bears wide receiver Anthony Miller had a decent day, hauling in five catches for 64 yards off of nine targets, but most of that production came in garbage time. Now, let's move onto the current week and find the best matchups to exploit for DFS tournaments and cash games.
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Week 8 WR/CB Matchups to Exploit
Kenny Golladay ($6,700 FanDuel / $6,400 DraftKings) vs DeAndre Baker
The Giants Defense is giving up 8.9 yards-per-pass so far this season, which is second-worst in the league. The Giants have also given up 30 pass plays of 20+ yards which is also second-worst in the league. Kenny Golladay should see a lot of DeAndre Baker in coverage this weekend. On the season opposing quarterbacks have a 144.6-passer rating when throwing in Baker's direction. Baker has also been burned for 409 yards while in coverage which is fifth-worst in the league. Even if Golladay sees Janoris Jenkins in coverage, he has a six-inch height advantage over Jenkins and should be able to get it done against him. Remember, in Week 3, Mike Evans, who stands 6'5" had eight catches for 190 yards and three touchdowns against the 5'10" Jenkins. With running back Kerryon Johnson on IR, the Lions may lean more on the passing game to get it done in this matchup that has an over/under of 49, which means points will be scored.
Tyler Lockett ($7,200 FanDuel / $7,000 DraftKings) vs Damontae Kazee
The Falcons have given up an NFL-worst 17-pass touchdowns so far this season, along with 274 yards-per-game through the air which is fifth-worst in the league. The Falcons have also been vulnerable to the big play, giving up 28-pass plays of 20+ yards. The Seahawks are without tight end Will Dissly which should create more targets for the wide receivers. This game has an over/under set at 54 and Lockett should get it done as the Falcons can't stop anybody on defense.
John Brown ($5,900 FanDuel / $5,900 DraftKings) vs Jalen Mills
The Eagles secondary has been terrible so far this season, giving up 14-pass touchdowns and eight pass plays of 40+ yards which is second-worst in the league. John Brown is the Bills deep threat and he has a quarterback in Josh Allen that can get him the ball deep. The Eagles Defense only gives up 3.7 yards-per-carry on the ground which forces opposing teams to beat them through the air, which they have, as the Eagles surrender an average of 270.6 pass yards a week. Considering the matchup, this game is setting up very well for Brown who could have a career day. It is worth noting, however, that there may be rain and wind during the game on Sunday, so monitor the situation and pivot off of Brown if the winds are above 20 mph.
Pivot: Tyrell Williams ($5,900 FanDuel / $5,500 DraftKings) vs Johnathan Joseph
The Texans Defense has surrendered an average of 275.6 pass yards per game which is fourth-worst in the league. The Texans have also surrendered the fifth-most pass touchdowns this year (15) which is good news for Tyrell Williams, who has scored in every game he's played in 2019. Monitor Williams status throughout the weekend because it's still not a lock that he plays on Sunday, but if he does, fire him up.
Corey Davis ($5,500 FanDuel / $4,400 DraftKings) vs Carlton Davis
Corey Davis figures to see Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis on a majority of his routes in Week 8, but Corey Davis moves around the formation and Carlton Davis doesn't shadow. Carlton Davis is the most-targeted cornerback on the Buccaneers Defense (42), but out of all the Buccaneers cornerbacks, he has actually surrendered the lowest QB rating (71.8) when targeted. Regardless of who Davis sees in coverage on Sunday, he will have a beatable matchup because teams beat the Buccaneers through the air, not on the ground. The Buccaneers give up and NFL-worst 304.5 pass yards-per-game and an NFL-best 2.9 yards-per-carry on the ground. This one sets up really well for Davis who will actually be able to exploit the matchup now that he has an accurate quarterback throwing him the ball in Ryan Tannehill.
Courtland Sutton ($6,000 FanDuel / $5,300 DraftKings) vs Pierre Desir
The Broncos have moved on from Emmanuel Sanders which opens up the door for other Broncos wide receivers to see the field, but it should also mean more targets for Courtland Sutton. Pierre Desir should shadow Sutton on Sunday but the matchup is not prohibitive for Sutton's outlook. Sutton is averaging two red zone targets per game which gives him a decent chance to score. The Colts are surrendering 4.9 yards-per-carry to opposing running backs so far this year, but that number is a little skewed because they were without their star linebacker Darius Leonard for several games which left their run defense vulnerable. The over/under is set at 43.5 points and the Colts are favored by 5.5 which means the Broncos should need to throw the ball plenty in this one.
D.J. Chark ($6,300 FanDuel / $6,000 DraftKings) vs Trumaine Johnson
Brian Poole is the only Jets cornerback that has surrendered an opposing QB rating under 100 on the season (68.5). Poole primarily plays the slot, which is bad news for Dede Westbrook, but it's good news for DJ Chark. Whether Chark sees Darryl Roberts or Trumaine Johnson in coverage on the outside, he should be able to shine in this one. It's worth noting that the Jets Defense only gives up 3.3 yards-per-carry to opposing running backs, so if Leonard Fournette struggles to get going on the ground this weekend, Chark could have a big game.
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