RADIO
Welcome back to another week of NFL DFS GPP Stacks! This is where I talk about the slate and give three stacks you should consider for your GPP lineups!
I generally make 3-5 lineups, because it is hard to nail every stack. I use a different stack for each GPP lineup and hope one of them pops to the top of the standings! If I win a GPP with one lineup and do not cash in the other few, I will still have a very nice day and win a good chunk of cash!
Before just diving into the picks for this week, some reminders about guidelines I use for stacks. I want games with high point-scoring totals. When looking for a stack, we want to have multiple pieces of a passing offense to score a lot of points. We want teams that can score a lot and will score a lot through the air. I generally want to fade a stack combination that is projected to be the most popular in the slate. This means I may choose to stack up that team different from the crowd, or I may do an outright fade. With that said, on to the picks!
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Wild Card Round DFS Slate Context
The way the slates are broken out makes for an interesting mix of contests. We have Saturday only, we have Saturday-Monday, we have Saturday and Sunday, Sunday only, Sunday afternoon, and Sunday Primetime. It's going to be really hard to cover all the bases in one article, but if there are questions feel free to hit me up on Twitter: @Mark_Kieffer.
My key advice if you are playing multiple slates this weekend is to treat each slate independently of the other slate. For example, let's say in the Saturday-Monday slate you stack up Dallas on a Saturday-Monday slate and then you decide to play the Sunday slate, don't feel like you have to fade Dallas since you have them before. If you treat each slate independently of each other and make the best decisions you can for your lineups, you will be better off than if you do not do that.
I am going to give my favorite stacks of each day of Saturday and Sunday and then I will give a ranking of them all if I were playing a Saturday-Monday Slate.
Wild Card Round DFS Stacks - Saturday
1) Las Vegas Raiders
I was going to call them sneaky but on a four-game slate, I am not sure how sneaky they are. They are implied for just 21.75 points, six less than Cincinnati and three less than Buffalo. What I like about this stack is (1) they will likely be behind in the fourth quarter, (2) Cincinnati has the No. 26 pass defense with the No. 5 run defense. You can go Carr-Waller-Renfrow or just pick one of Waller or Renfrow. I do not think both Waller and Renfrow will have a ceiling game at the same time, so it's better to probably just choose one of the two and have them more as a pairing than a stack.
2) Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen always has the ability to go nuclear and if you throw out the December 6th game, he had a very nice 314-yard passing game against New England. The fragility with stacking the Bills is that New England does have the No. 2 pass defense in the NFL and with playing each other a third time can New England find a way to slow them down? Price-wise, it will be easier to roster a Bills stack because the drop-off from Stefon Diggs is in the $4k-$5k range depending on what site you are playing at. Beasley will likely be the cheapest "No. 2" receiving option on the slate and will probably be over-owned. You will have to take a stab at Gabriel Davis or Emmanuel Sanders if stacking the Bills and hoping to win a GPP.
3) Cincinnati Bengals
In the last three weeks of the season, nobody passed the ball more than Cincinnati did (68.48% of plays). Cincinnati has the highest implied total on the day at 27.25 points and is facing the No. 13 pass defense in the league. I would think as far as stacks go, Burrow-Chase-Higgins would be the most popular double stack on the slate and too chalky for me. The fragility of this stack is the fact that Las Vegas has a bad run defense and Cincinnati still has a great running back in Joe Mixon. I am going to fade Cincinnati passing and roster Joe Mixon this week, in hopes he has a ceiling-type game while the majority of my opponents hold a Burrow stack.
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Wild Card Round DFS Stacks - Sunday
1) Kansas City Chiefs
They have the highest implied total (29.25 points), and this offense goes through Mahomes-Hill-Kelce. The flip side of the argument is that Pittsburgh isn't very good, how motivated will Kansas City be in this game, and if it does turn into a blowout how much run will Mahomes-Hill-Kelce get in the second half? As we get closer to Sunday, we will have a better sense of how popular they will be.
2) Philadelphia Eagles
Wait... Philadelphia? Here are the things Philadelphia has going for them. They are likely going to be down the entire game and Tampa Bay's pass defense is one of the worst of all the playoff teams: No 21. I think a Hurts-Goedert-Smith stack will go under-owned and have as much upside as any other stack out there. Even in a losing effort, they could potentially put up a lot of fantasy points.
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Losing Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin makes them less interesting to me as a stack. Leonard Fournette is coming back. If you are going to stack Tampa Bay, I would probably have it include Fournette as he was averaging 6 targets per game - more than some wide receivers. I'd stack either Rob Gronkowski or Mike Evans but not both and throw in Leonard Fournette.
4) Dallas Cowboys
I am low on the Cowboys offense this week and it could burn me. San Francisco has the No. 6 pass defense in the No. 7 run defense in the league. Yes, they are projected for the third-most points on the slate, but this could turn into a defensive slug-fust in my opinion. CeeDee Lamb has the ability to have a ceiling game for any game but outside of him, I don't see a ceiling game here out of Dallas going against a good defense.
Saturday-Monday Stack Ranks:
These are based on how I think they may perform relative to ownership
- Kansas City
- Philadelphia
- Los Angeles Rams
- Tampa Bay
- Las Vegas
- Dallas
- Buffalo
- Cincinnati
- Arizona
- San Francisco
- New England
- Pittsburgh
Thanks for reading, and I wish you the best of luck with your Wildcard Round DFS Stacks!
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