Ellis' Top 50 Running Back Rankings - PPR Fantasy Football Analysis

It's time to start ranking the most important position in fantasy. Running backs truly make or break your fantasy season, and unfortunately, there aren't many fantasy stars at the position. So no pressure releasing my rankings in May, right?

The landscape didn't really change during the NFL draft (outside of three teams). However, with all the quarterback and receiver movement, we have backs who are wearing the same jerseys but on completely new offenses. We also have RBs like Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, and Travis Etienne coming off of major injuries.

In this article, I break down my thoughts on the top-24 players and share my top-40 RB rankings. From love stories to fashion advice, it's a loaded rankings article. My name is Ellis, and I want to thank you all for checking out my work. Find me on Twitter @YoitsEllis_FF and let me know what you think!

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best NFL Series, MLB Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings (PPR)

May 2022 Update

1. Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR): Fooled me once, fooled me twice, why not go for the turkey here. I mean it, I’m going down with this ship even if we get a repeat of the last two seasons. Over the last two seasons, he has played 50% or more snaps in seven games; in these games, he averaged 27.7 fantasy points. Last season, that would have led all players across positions (Cooper Kupp led the league with 25.9 fpts/game in 2021). CMC is the most valuable player in fantasy when he plays regardless of quarterback or team, and that’s an advantage I don’t want anyone else in my league having.
2. Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND): He’s unstoppable. If you aren’t willing to take the risk with CMC, there is no reason Taylor wouldn’t be atop the list. Last season, he topped 1800 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. The icing on the cake was his 40 receptions, two receiving touchdowns, and 360 receiving yards. This team literally ran through Taylor, and with an upgrade at QB, he could be even better. The Colts have everything you want your fantasy RB to be associated with; a great offensive line, immobile QB, and the willingness to run the ball 20+ times a game. He’s as safe as it gets when it comes to fantasy picks.
3. Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC): Finally, Ekeler started to gain the fantasy respect he deserves. Much like Taylor above, there is nothing not to like about Ekeler’s situation (but for different reasons). He has a young QB, star-powered offense, good offensive line, a team that wants to go for it on fourth down, and we learned he can be the goal-line back. Matching Taylor’s 20 total touchdowns, Ekeler managed to be the RB2 despite failing to crack 1,000 rushing yards. His 70 receptions and nearly 650 receiving yards easily made up for that. As a result, he is a bonafide full PPR RB1, and for me, he ends the top tier for runningbacks.
4. Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN): Why does 2021 seem like a lost season for Dalvin Cook? The former superstar has run into some fantasy fatigue in leagues. Cook has always had elevated injury risk, and last season he missed four games. To make matters worse, touchdown regression hit him at the same time. Cook went from 16 rushing touchdowns (17 total) in 2020 to a mere six rushing touchdowns (eight total) in 2021. This was the perfect storm for Cook to have a down year and be under drafted in 2022. Playing the odds, he should have positive touchdown regression and avoid injury, making him once again a top RB in 2022.
5. Derrick Henry (RB, TEN): Henry was on an absolute tear last season, then he injured his foot. What’s wild is that he managed to finish as the RB22 despite missing nine games. Oh, and he did that in full PPR with 18 receptions. To be able to do that off of pure rushing is absurd. Henry averaged over a touchdown per game and over 100 yards rushing. Now, with star-wide-out A.J. Brown gone, somehow those stats could go up. Unfortunately, there is a possibility with age and workload that this injury was the first of many to come, but that’s the risk that lowers him to number five on this list.
6. Joe Mixon (RB, CIN): Do you remember when we were all waiting for Mixon to join the fantasy party? From the moment the controversial draft pick was made, it was frustrating to see his obvious talent sit on a below-average offense. Enter Joe Burrow. This team has completely flipped and now has one of the best offenses in the league. Mixon is the clear lead back on this team, with his only competition being a dynamic pass catcher and part-time Captain America, Chris Evans, and journeyman Samaje Perine. This proved not to be a worry as last season he had the third-most rushing attempts in the league. The Bengals have also done an excellent job restructuring their offensive line to protect Burrow under center and consequently help the run game.
7. Aaron Jones (RB, GB): I feel like this may be a “hot take," but I think the path is clear for Jones to return to fantasy glory. Over the last three years, Jones has been an RB1, with his highest being the RB2 in 2019 and his lowest being last season as RB11. For a player that is often assumed to be inconsistent, that’s three straight years of great production. Plus, last season, he missed three games. This opportunity led to the emergence of A.J. Dillon, who was very impressive as the starter and a complement to Jones. Dillon should see more work, but this is a perfect Thunder-Lightning backfield combination.
   The second key is Davante Adams leaving town. In the one game last year without Adams, Jones was targeted 11 times. There are two well-known's that increase Jones' appeal. The first is that when a star receiver leaves a team, there is typically an increase of targets to the running back position the following year. The second is that Aaron Rodgers throws to people he trusts (just look at last year’s playoff game against the 49ers where Jones and Adams combined for 18 of Rodgers' 20 completions), and currently, the people he trusts on the depth chart are not even close to as talented as Jones. Even with Adams, Jones had the sixth-most receptions and second-most receiving touchdowns at the position. These numbers can go up, making him a volume RB1 in full PPR, with the upside of his elite nose for the endzone.
8. D’Andre Swift (RB, DET): I think people forget that going into the 2020 NFL draft, Swift was scouted to be a better all-around back than Jonathan Taylor. As a result of NFL statistics and landing spot, Taylor has clearly made the most of his talent. Swift on the other hand has only shown glimpses of his potential. Right out the gate, he demonstrated his ability in the receiving game, with only one game having less than three receptions. Last season, the addition of Head Coach Motor City Dan Campbell (HCMCDC) made it clear that Swift is the workhorse of this team, averaging 12 rushing attempts and six targets per game. In full PPR, Swift is the classic case of workload and talent supplanting situation. I also could see a world where he scores the bulk of the Lions' total touchdowns, which would raise his ceiling to potentially top-five.
9. Leonard Fournette (RB, TB): Much like high-waisted jeans, Fournette has had a career resurgence. From getting released by the Jaguars to becoming a Super Bowl champion, Fournette has come back from the dead. He had an excellent season in 2021, finishing as the RB6 despite barely reaching 800 rushing yards and missing three games. He did this as a result of building Tom Brady’s trust and having the third-most targets at the position. He also did this despite scoring a pedestrian 10 touchdowns. On this high-powered offense, with Tom Brady leading the charge, plus the removal of Ronald Jones II, Fournette could have another great season and possibly lead the league in rushing touchdowns.
10. David Montgomery (RB, CHI): This is probably one of the higher rankings for the young back, proving that he continues to be disrespected. Last season was a lost season as he missed four games to injury and was on one of the most dysfunctional offenses in the league. Despite this, he averaged 15 fantasy points a game which over a full 17 game season would have put him as the RB-six (tied with Fournette) in 2021. His usage was also elite, with a 17-game pace of 294 carries and 55 receptions, which would have been the third and fifth most at the position respectively. Unfortunately, I can not predict health, but this extrapolation does put his production into perspective. Although the team is still a mess, a new head coach and Justin Fields’ second year provide some hope. With no substantial additions to this offense, Montgomery is the best weapon they have.
    We also know that the team trusts him as the lead back, as he jumped right into a full workload after his injury despite Khalil Herbert performing well in his absence. In the past, Montgomery has been a great fantasy weapon with a large workload, and in 2020, we finally saw some elite fantasy numbers. His workload and talent should give you the confidence to draft him as a late RB1.
11. Najee Harris (RB, PIT): This is most likely lower than his consensus ranking, and I’m okay with that. I love Najee Harris both as a person and a player, and I hope he has an excellent season. But I don’t think this year will be pretty. In 2021, the rookie broke out purely off of talent and workload. He finished tied for the most targets at the position and had the second-most rushing attempts, totalling a ridiculous 501 opportunities. His workload should still be atop the league, but I would be surprised if it remains anywhere near the 500 mark.
    Whether you want to say that is because they will have a QB that can throw farther than 10 yards, or because the team wants to protect their young star, regression should come. If that is the case, the Steelers still have one of the worst lines in the league, which led Harris to be near the bottom in every efficiency metric. If the work decreases, he’ll need a substantial jump in efficiency to return value. If the workload continues, injury risk is terrifying. That’s not a situation I want to buy into.
12. James Conner (RB, ARI): What a resurgence from James Conner last season. The once left-for-dead Steelers’ RB went to Arizona and dominated the red zone. In 2021, Conner finished as the RB5 overall, and to make things better, Chase Edmonds is now in Miami. So, why do I have him down at 12? After all, this is Conner’s backfield and there’s no disputing that. I think what gets overlooked is his touchdown proficiency in 2021 and Murray’s injury. It’s no surprise that his 18 touchdowns in 15 games will regress, but I think it will be more than people are expecting.
    My thought process is largely due to having a fully healthy Kyler Murray. After scoring one rushing touchdown in each of the first three weeks, Murray only scored a rushing touchdown in Week 13 after that. As a result, he had six fewer rushing touchdowns than the previous year, opening the door for Conner to have the second most carries inside the five-yard line in the league. I think with a healthy Kyler Murray and Conner’s injury history, he is one of the riskier RB1s in the league.
13. Josh Jacobs (RB, LVR): Just when everything looked to be full steam ahead for Jacobs, news broke that the team will not pick up his fifth-year option. This came as a surprise as he had delivered for the team, scoring 21 rushing touchdowns over the last two years. Last season, from Weeks 10 on, Jacobs averaged the fourth-most points per game. The offense has recently gotten a lot better, adding Davante Adams and the breakout of Hunter Renfrow. This may take some targets away from the position, but thankfully that was never a large part of Jacobs' NFL game. The decrease in passing work should easily be offset by an increase in endzone opportunities. In the end, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jacobs posts another underwhelming top-12 performance.
14. Alvin Kamara (RB, NOS): 2020’s RB1 has changed his tune over the last season. It all started with the departure of the notorious check-down king, Drew Brees. That led right into the Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill experiment where despite missing four games, Kamara finished 2021 as the RB8. Kamara was the engine of this team and averaged a combined 24 opportunities per game. Even without Sean Peyton, the return of Michael Thomas, and the addition of Chris Olave, it’s no secret that Kamara is still THE guy. Unfortunately, Kamara is currently under investigation for an altercation that happened at the Pro Bowl and could lead to a possible start of season suspension. Who knows where that will lead, and I am using this ranking more as a placeholder than anything. If he is not suspended I would place him ahead of Mixon as my RB6.
15. Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL): Zeke has been a top-10 back for four consecutive years. Not going to lie, that surprised me. If you rostered him last year, I imagine you feel the same. In 2021, Elliott barely cracked a thousand yards rushing even though he had the seventh-most attempts in the league. The good thing is that you can always count on Zeke for a heavy workload. On top of his rushing work, he was tied for the seventh most targets at the position. This offense will be as potent as ever and the line is still in the top half of the league, making Zeke an excellent RB2 or low-end RB1. There is optimism that his fantasy decline was a result of his injury last season, but either way, I’m worried his top-10 days may be coming to an end.
16. Cam Akers (RB, LAR): A miracle of modern medicine. Against all odds. Truly remarkable. These were all phrases to describe Akers’ return from a torn Achilles last season. The injury happened before the season and Akers managed to return to an NFL field in time for the playoff run. Many were surprised to see him on the field before the return of J.K. Dobbins, and rightfully so. It’s no secret that torn Achilles can be devastating, especially for running backs.
    It was clear that when Akers returned, he seemed to be less dynamic than he used to be, but was still the leader of this backfield. As I see it, just having him on the field was a treat, so I’m not looking at his playoff performance and efficiency too much. Instead, I am banking on a full offseason of rehab and practices to get him back to the tackle-breaking star we all know and love. On this offense, the sky is the limit and it should be the Akers - Darrell Henderson Jr. show for years to come.
17. Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG): What has happened to Barkley? Mr. Generational has seemingly disappeared right before our eyes. Still, there’s no denying the elite talent. His disappointing production has been largely due to injuries, plus he is stuck on one of the worst managed teams in the league. Thankfully, that seems to be turning a page this year, after the Giants brought in a new coach and drafted arguably the best O-lineman in the 2022 class. With all of this, can Barkley get back to form? I’m wary.
    Firstly, I don’t expect this offense to be electric, limiting his touchdown upside. Secondly, in his rookie year, a lot of his value came from the passing game, averaging nearly six receptions per game. Since then (and since Daniel Jones has taken over), he has averaged 3.5 receptions per game. Say what you will, but this offense is full of solid pass catchers; Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Kadarius Toney, and rookie Wan'Dale Robinson. For his fantasy success, Jones needs to use him in the passing game, and he needs to avoid injury. Both of these seem like a big ask to me.
18. Nick Chubb (RB, CLE): You could argue that Chubb is the best pure rusher in the league. The thing is, that doesn’t help much for PPR fantasy. We’ve been waiting to see that monster season from the veteran back, he just hasn’t seemed to find it yet. Over his first four years, he has eight or more rushing touchdowns each year and is a lock for nearly 200 rushing attempts. Now with Watson under center, the offense will be even better. Despite this (much like James Conner), I think Watson will vulture some rushing touchdowns and ultimately limit Chubb’s exclusive rushing upside.
    He’s solidly outside of my top-12 with the decrease in touchdown upside, but I have no issue with anyone who has Chubb higher. I personally am looking to shoot for a higher upside option like Saquon Barkley and his potential passing work, or the guaranteed volume of David Montgomery or Zeke, especially in PPR formats.
19. J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL): Now into May, Dobbins is still not fully healthy. This is surprising since he missed the entire 2021 season with a torn ACL. For this reason, I am concerned that there may be some complications with his injury, but that is just speculation. The team has come out and said they do not expect any setbacks for the young back. The anticipation for him to return as the main back will skyrocket his value as soon as Twitter gets a hold of a workout video. Dobbins flashed as an efficient rusher, averaging six yards per carry in his rookie season, and managed to score nine rushing touchdowns over a 15-game span.
    What limits Dobbins is his minimal pass-catching work and the other offensive weapons. Of course, Baltimore is one of the best rushing offenses in the league, but with Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards rushing as well, Dobbins may struggle to see a large volume. The good thing is that he may return as the efficient back we saw as a rookie, meaning he’ll still be great for fantasy. Personally, I am going to wait until we get clarification that he will be fully healthy in Week One before drafting him in any leagues (in case of any unknown complications).
20. Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS): Another back who surprised me for fantasy, Gibson has finished both of his seasons as an RB1. Last season, he did this despite rushing for under 70 yards in 11 of 16 games (six of which had fewer than 50 yards). What saved his fantasy value was that the team committed to the run game, giving him the fourth-most carries in the league. This work would suggest a clear vote of confidence from the team’s management, but this offseason has said the opposite.
    After retaining their pass-catching specialist J.D. McKissic, the team also went and drafted Brian Robinson Jr. in the third round. Head Coach Ron Rivera has already discussed the backfield of Robinson and Gibson to be similar to his infamous committee of D’Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart back in Carolina. In conclusion, Gibson could be a value, but if the team’s actions mean anything, it’ll be tough for him to find another RB1 finish.
21. Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX): He’s back. In one of the most devastating injuries of 2021, the first-round running back missed his entire rookie season with a Lisfranc injury. This foot injury is nasty and does raise concern for reinjury, making him a risky draft pick in 2022. Unfortunately, this was not the only devastating injury in 2021, as undrafted star James Robinson tore his Achilles late in the season and will miss most if not all of the ‘22 season. This leaves Etienne as the clear lead back and by far the most talented on the roster.
    Assuming that he will be back and healthy for Week 1, Etienne will try to jumpstart one of the worst offenses in the league. The team is looking to bounce back and with their new free-agent acquisitions as well as Etienne’s return, they might have the boost they need to revitalize college superstar Trevor Lawrence. I’m excited to see what this electric back can do with full control of this backfield.
22. Breece Hall: (RB, NYJ): The first love story is dynasty’s 2022 rookie darling. Hall is expected to do big things this year right out of the gate. I never thought I would say this, but the Jets seem to be going in the right direction and could give Hall some substantial upside. Coming out of college as a true all-around back, Hall will most likely dominate this backfield from Day One. However, I think pass-catching specialist Michael Carter may play a little spoiler.
    Head Coach Robert Saleh comes from the 49ers, who always seem to incorporate multiple backs in their schemes. I’m not saying that this will be identical to that offense, but I do think Carter will get more touches than the fantasy community would like. In the end, on a middling offense, Hall should find a way to workload his way into RB2 territory for his rookie season.
23. Javonte Williams (RB, DEN): Our second love story is Williams. The young back is like that long-term crush who finally breaks up with their partner, leaving you with a “this is my time” mentality. But, right when you are about to pull the old 80's romance play, dusting off your boom box and going to their house, you get a call that they are going to try and make things work and get back together. That’s what Williams and the Broncos did to the fantasy community when they re-signed Melvin Gordon. The love for Williams was wild, with some analysts ranking him as a top-five RB after the signing of Russell Wilson. Then Gordon came back into the mix and crushed his top-five potential.
    In real football, this was a great addition for the Broncos as they made an excellent one-two punch last season. Williams will be the main guy in this duo, but last season, we saw that didn’t mean much as it was as close to a 50-50 committee as it could be. Personally, I would view him as an outstanding RB3 or low-end RB2 in 2022.
24. Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE): For the second time in the last three years, Hunt only played eight games. We have seen what he can do with a full season, crack the top-10 backs in 2020. This shows the wide range of outcomes for Hunt, but you know if he is playing, he’ll find a way to provide fantasy value. He rounds out arguably the best backfield duo in the league and is the primary pass catcher. Now that Deshaun Watson is in town, his role is a little cloudier, most likely having fewer targets for the position. Despite that, he could very well have increased touchdowns and crack the top-20 backs in 2022.
    I am personally concerned about injury and the rushing split between Watson, Chubb, and Hunt, and would not like to rely on him as my weekly RB2. Despite this, he might be one of the best flex/RB3 options in fantasy.
25. AJ Dillon (RB, GB)
26. Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL)
27. Rashaad Penny (RB, SEA)
28. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
29. Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
30. Damien Harris (RB, NE)
31. Melvin Gordon III (RB, DEN)
32. Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF)
33. Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
34. J.D. McKissic (RB, WAS)
35. Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
36. Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
37. Chase Edmonds (RB, MIA)
38. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
39. Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB, LAR)
40. Raheem Mostert (RB, MIA)

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