RADIO
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! The weekend is here. We bounced back on Sunday, cashing both of our plays. I've had a decent week thus far just keeping it light, but hope to have a big weekend. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, June 17, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Featured Promo: Want a free RotoBaller Premium Pass? Check out these sports betting promo offers from the top sportsbooks! All new sign-ups get a free bonus offer on their first deposit, and a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Sign Up Now!
LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 32-38-1, -13.55 units
- Sides: 25-26, -10.56 units
- Totals: 6-12-1, -4.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Cubs
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CHC +146
ATL: Charlie Morton | CHC: Keegan Thompson
I'll head out to the Windy City for our first play of the day, as the Braves and Cubs open up their weekend series. The Braves have been absolutely dominant of late, winning 14 (!!!) straight ball games. This has to come to an end soon, but I won't be picking a side here. I'll be looking at the over in this one, as the Braves and Charlie Morton (4-3, 5.67 ERA) takes on the Cubs behind Keegan Thompson (6-2, 3.67 ERA).
Charlie Morton has struggled all season, as his ERA indicates, though his xFIP does show signs of potential positive regression at 4.21. Nevertheless, he's still allowing 27.5% hard contact on the year, and I have the Cubs projected for 33.35% hard contact today. On the other hand, Thompson comes into this one due for regression, given his 4.53 xFIP and 28.8% hard contact rate. That regression may very well come against Atlanta, as the Braves project for 36.85% hard contact today.
While I really would have LOVED this play at 7.5, I have no problem taking it at 8, especially at -112 odds. The over is an astonishing 11-1 in Charlie Morton starts this season, and has hit in seven of Thompson's last ten appearances. All trends are pointing to the over here, so I have no trouble riding it, especially considering my model gives this game a 59.41% chance of going over.
Pick: Braves/Cubs OVER 8 (-112) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Sports Betting Promo Offers
All new sign-ups also get a free year of RotoBaller's all sports Premium Pass ($450 value)!
| Sportsbook | Bonus Offer | Promo |
| Caesars | Risk-Free First Bet Up To $1,500 | CLAIM OFFER |
| PointsBet | 2 Risk-Free Bets Up To $2,000 | CLAIM OFFER |
| BetMGM | Risk-Free First Bet Up To $1,000 | CLAIM OFFER |
| FanDuel | Risk-Free First Bet Up To $1,000 | CLAIM OFFER |
| DraftKings | Deposit Bonus Booster Up To $1,000 | CLAIM OFFER |
Featured Promo
Offer is only valid for new users
All new sportsbook sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller Premium access ($450 value)!
1. Just sign up for a new account
2. Make a minimum deposit of $20 and place any bet
3. Be sure to claim your bonus offer from the sportsbook
4. Email us at info@rotoballer.com with your new account details
5. Boom - that's it! We'll email you with your year-long RotoBaller Premium Pass
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL +130
TB: Shane Baz | BAL: Dean Kremer
I'll head out to Baltimore for our second play of the day as the Rays and Orioles open up a divisional weekend set. I'll be backing the road team in this one, as I think the Rays are slightly undervalued here, with Shane Baz (0-1, 19.29 ERA) on the mound. He'll take on Dean Kremer (2-2, 3.86 ERA) and the Orioles this evening.
While Baz struggled in his season debut, allowing five earned runs on just three hits as well as three walks, this is uncharacteristic of the 23-year-old righty. He walked just four batters in 13 innings in AAA before making his debut and was stellar with a 2.03 ERA with the Major League club in 2021. On the other hand, Dean Kremer has pitched well given his ERA this season but is due for some massive regression given his 5.21 xFIP.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us -154 odds on Tampa Bay, good for 60.63% odds. My model gives the Rays a 67.23% chance of winning this game. Despite the small sample size, I would still give the Rays the pitching advantage in this one. I fully expect Shane Baz to bounce back from his poor debut and shut the Orioles down. Should Baz only go 3-4 innings, I still have faith in the Rays' bullpen to get the job done. The Rays have dominated Baltimore, winning 44 of the last 58 matchups including 13 of 16 in Baltimore.
Pick: Rays Money Line (-126) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Friday!
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
More Fantasy Baseball Analysis
