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Welcome to our fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, where we identify key players on each NFL team and project their fantasy value ahead of draft season. Today, we're going to look at the Las Vegas Raiders.
There is a lot of change in store for the silver and black this season. Not only did they make a blockbuster acquisition of wide receiver Davante Adams, they'll also have a new offensive scheme with former Patriots OC Josh McDaniels taking over as head coach. Will he mold this team into a West Coast version of the Pats replete with a full-blown running back by committee? Let's find out.
Below, you'll find a fantasy football breakout candidate, a fantasy football bust candidate, and a safe fantasy football pick for the Raiders based on early ADP for fantasy football drafts in 2022.
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Fantasy Football Breakout: Zamir White
Despite being a five-star recruit out of high school and playing for the national champion Georgia Bulldogs, White wasn't prominent in the minds of the fantasy football community until the NFL Combine. He ran a 4.4 and looked capable as a pass-catcher during drills, dispelling two major concerns about White among those who thought he was simply a between-the-tackles runner. White has always been a freakish athlete, earning the nickname Zeus, but he didn't put up huge numbers in college. That's part of the problem with going to a successful SEC program where you have to share time with guys like D'Andre Swift and James Cook.
Most Athletic RBs by SPORQ Score
[Last 5 NFL Combines]1. Saquon Barkley (99.5)
2. A.J. Dillon (98.1)
3. Christian McCaffrey (97.8)
4. Jonathan Taylor (96.4)
5. Breece Hall (94.9)
6. Antonio Gibson (93.7)
7. Zamir White (92.6)
8. Nick Chubb (90.4) pic.twitter.com/RFHes4VSvn— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 16, 2022
The Raiders took White in round four, which isn't exactly huge draft capital. It indicates that he will compete for, but is not guaranteed, playing time as a rookie. The twist here is that the Raiders seemingly didn't need a running back with Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake in tow but a new coaching regime is in town. A player selected by a coach might just have an edge over an incumbent, especially one on an expiring contract.
White might get off to a slow start in terms of involvement but we've seen lately that rookie RBs can take over midseason when it's least expected. Don't expect bell-cow numbers from any back in Vegas this year but bet on the guy who should get the ball most late in the season when it counts.
Fantasy Football Bust: Josh Jacobs
Cause, meet effect. If White was drafted to be the eventual starter at RB, then Jacobs will be phased out by the season's end. That's the key because, in fantasy football, late-season value trumps early-season value every time.
The thing is, it might not be long before Jacobs sees his touches go down.
Raiders expected to use a heavy committee at running back during the 2022 season https://t.co/8Axiwk9I9L
— Raiders Wire (@TheRaidersWire) June 19, 2022
Remember that Josh McDaniels is the one behind the New England Patriots offense. I'm not sure, but I think the Pats invented RBBC.
Jacobs has played well when on the field but new regimes like to have their own guys and they drafted White for a reason. Finances always play a factor in the NFL, especially at running back. White is on a team-friendly rookie contract as a fourth-round pick while the team declined an option for Josh Jacobs. That means both Jacobs and Kenyan Drake could be gone in 2023.
Barring anything unexpected, Jacobs will start the season as the RB1 in this committee but it's very possible that White overtakes him by the time fantasy playoffs roll around. This is partly baked into his ADP but he is currently among the top-20 RBs which is just too high for someone on thin ice.
Fantasy Football Lock: Davante Adams
It's not going out on a big limb to say that a player who has finished the last six seasons as the WR2, WR1, WR6, WR1, WR8, and WR10 in PPR scoring per game is a safe pick. There will be some questions as to how he will do without Aaron Rodgers for the first time in his career.
Fret not, he'll be fine.
It hasn't happened often but in games where Adams played without Rodgers, the drop-off was barely noticeable.
Motivation will hardly be a problem, as Adams will be giddy to wear silver and black. He's been wanting to be a Raider for years and now reunites with his college QB, Derek Carr. That worked out pretty well last time when he posted 1,719 receiving yards and 24 touchdowns in his sophomore year, the last before going pro.
Adams shouldn't see a drop in targets or red-zone opportunities. We can't look at last year's Patriots and say "McDaniels loves to run it near the goal-line!" They had a rookie quarterback and mediocre receivers. The strength of the Patriot offense was their physical O-line and Damien Harris has a nose for the end zone. This Raiders team isn't built the same way and as mentioned above, Josh Jacobs isn't that ideal goal-line back. Zamir White could be, but it's too soon to make that declaration. Expect Adams, Waller, and Renfrow to all be busy in the end zone this season.
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