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Hello everyone once again! We escape the Father's Day Break as the Ally 400 comes calling from Nashville, Tennessee. This is the 17th 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Martin Truex Jr. Over 40.5 Points. This is extremely volatile only because no one except the Truex Jr. crew and Truex truly know how his car is driving. However, he felt good enough, qualifying tenth, for Sunday evening's race in Nashville. The points do seem a bit low. He tends to run well but got a bit unlucky in last year's race. With whatever cloud over the No. 19 car gone, it appears the Joe Gibbs Racing car could be one to watch on Sunday.
Kyle Larson Over 55.5 Points. The reason is taking a risk even. Kyle Larson and his #5 car have been dominant at times but at Nashville, throttled the race last year. He led all but 36 laps. Even if he does not lead quite so many this year, Larson qualified third and that puts him in position to set some fast laps too. The 1.33-mile course is a hybrid track which acts like a short track in some parts and an intermediate in others. Larson mastered that well last year en route to victory. There is a reason why he is a favorite once more.
Ross Chastain Over 46.5 Points. This is the "TrackHouse Special" Sunday. Chastain is fast here and has the ability to lead some laps even qualifying in seventh. There is just this sense that Chastain is one of those Chevy racers that just maximizes speed at all costs. This means laps led and fastest laps which increase his floor play. If he does finish in the top ten, that may be just enough points. The thought process is he comes goes over 50 points which covers. The margin of error here should be better than expected. Chastain finished second here last year.
Bubba Wallace Under 46.5 Points. The Bubba Wallace story is intriguing. He has not enjoyed the best of seasons but Wallace does tend to race a bit better in testing at Nashville. Despite that, he qualified 30th and showed some troubling speed intervals in the practice session. There were some good sectors too. That is the dilemma here. Is the amount of points too many to try and take a shot on the over? The thought process is yes as Wallace should improve position-wise but it does not appear like that place-differential gain will be enough.
Kevin Harvick Over 29.5 Points. This could prove to work on Sunday. The fact that Kevin Harvick begins the 300-lap race in eighth is okay. That gives him room to wobble around the top ten. Even with some unfortunate results, Harvick's consistency on similar tracks is uncanny. The Stewart-Haas driver even finished fifth here last year without a good car. If one adds those points up, that comes out to greater than 30. That makes for an easy avenue to get to the over. Hence, it's a reasonable prop to add on to increase the legs of the "parlay".
Some Other Drivers to Look At
Kyle Busch (Over 67.5 points) -- Kyle Busch is being given the crazy amount of points this week which is troublesome. Simply, the back of the field qualifying helps at 36th. If fuel does not get loused up there, the over very well could hit which will surprise some people. This is the most dangerous prop of the week.
Aric Almirola (Over 27.5 points) -- Expect the unexpected I guess. Almirola begins 11th and if this becomes a fuel issue type race, that could aid Almirola once more. That could make the 30-point benchmark attainable. Again, the low margin of error is risky but could work.
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