Week 5 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Greetings, one and all, to the weekly column that puts my rankings under the microscope and gives me a chance to stand up for myself against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). My hope is to help you understand why I’m significantly higher or lower on players than the expert crowd. 

Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros out of ~125 last season and just scored seventh for Week 4 in 2018. I’m out to show that 2017 was no fluke and you’ve got a VIP pass. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, as the overall and flex tabs can simply get insane. I focus on QB, RB, WR, and TE -- feel free to holler if you really want K or DEF notes.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough chit-chat, let’s dance.

Week 5 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

If Rob Gronkowski plays then I think I’m rolling with Tom Brady as my No. 1 QB this week, but I may cede a few spots if I get bad vibes from Gronk’s pregame workouts. Brady is the No. 5 QB per ECR, for what it’s worth. No one is benching him, but I figured I’d mark the difference anyhow.

Guys with more actionable gaps are Patrick Mahomes, who I have at No. 7 and the ECR slides to No. 10 with Jacksonville’s stout defense on deck. Some of you in 10-team leagues might be doubting your Mahomes play if someone like Jared Goff is available, but I’d stay the course. Alex Smith, who has sadly slid back into a game-manager role with Washington thus far, is my No. 12 QB against an ECR of 15. I think Washington is going to need him to do more than he’s been asked so far and his modest rushing abilities give him some sneaky value.

I’m not much lower on anyone, at least to the point where the gap is wider than four slots across the QB10-12 gulf. But I will point out that I’ve got Goff at No. 11 (ECR: 9), Blake Bortles at No. 14 (ECR: 12) and Kirk Cousins at No. 16 (ECR: 14).

Week 5 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Running back is an interesting position in the pass-happy world of 2018, but I think that makes it all the more fun. I think Detroit is realizing what they have in Kerryon Johnson and have him at No. 13 against an ECR of 16, but that’s not too special. The seven-slot gaps of Jay Ajayi (14 vs. ECR of 21) and Aaron Jones (16 vs. 23) are more notable.

I like Philadelphia to control the game on the ground and am suspecting the Packers will need to lean on its RBBC with Randall Cobb (hamstring) and fan-favorite Geronimo Allison (concussion) dinged up and possibly out. The prospect of playing Marquez Valdes-Scantling is thrilling, don’t get me wrong, but I highly doubt the pass-run ratio stays unaffected should both WRs miss the game.

Deeper down I have both Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell roughly six slots above ECR around the RB30 range, as well as Alfred Morris up at No. 35 against an ECR of 41. I think the Jets look to control the clock against Denver and try to avoid Sam Darnold having to do the bulk of the work, though that plan could go awry quickly. Morris and Breida both get to face a Cardinals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to RBs thus far. They've given up seven rushing TDs while no one else has yielded more than five.

Folks I’m lower on are James White (my No. 19 RB against the ECR’s 14), while Dion Lewis and Mark Ingram are seven slots below ECR. I appreciate White's contributions thus far but I think Julian Edelman's return really lowers his range of outcomes. He's not a bad play, but unless Gronk is confirmed out then you've got Edelman working in some and Josh Gordon also likely increasing his snap count. Lewis simply finds himself in a game projected for under 40 points by Vegas so I'm tempering expectations, while Ingram is simply more of a variable. What is New Orleans really comfortable putting on his plate out of the gate? I can't vault him towards RB1 territory so easily, but I understand the desire.

Week 5 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

There’s little doubting the emergence of the Rams’ WR trio as a force that can sustain each leg of the tripod thanks to not contending with a tight end for looks. Sure, Todd Gurley will take over some weeks, but this is just my stating that each wideout is easily a top-20 option. This changes nobody’s opinion, but I’m truly enamored with them in today’s game.

Anyway, folks I’m markedly higher on are Doug Baldwin (23 vs. 30), Quincy Enunwa (27 vs. 34) and Ryan Grant (38 vs. 43). The Seahawks didn’t take it easy on Baldwin in his return to action, playing him in 76% of snaps while his seven targets paced the team. Baldwin should have the best matchup against the Rams secondary as his slot work should keep him away from Marcus Peters. And Seattle should have to throw...a lot.

Meanwhile, Enunwa hasn’t seen fewer than eight targets in any week and should be able to utilize his size against smaller Denver DBs. Grant is going to move the chains for Indianapolis with T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle out. Like the optics or not, he’s got a great shot at double-digit targets with Indy likely trailing New England on Thursday.

I’m “lower” on A.J. Green because of Xavien Howard, who is blossoming into a shutdown corner in the early going, but you still aren’t benching Green. He’s just unlikely to post a top-10 week is all. More practical fades will be Keelan Cole (36 vs. 27), who may still technically be the No. 1 receiver for Jacksonville, but is as involved as Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief. No reason to pay up for a similar framework. I also have Amari Cooper down five slots and Jordy Nelson down 12, as I think Jared Cook stands as Oakland's best receiver here against a Chargers defense that is better than the stats show so far. They've been burned by Tyreek Hill and the Rams trio -- a caliber of which neither Cooper nor Nelson belong to.

Week 5 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Tight ends are always a volatile bunch, but we’ve lost known commodities in Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker and even Tyler Eifert, while Rob Gronkowski enters Week 5 as questionable. I’ve still got Gronk as a top-3 play if he’s active, but you’ll need to accept a zero floor if you start him.

If you picked up Vance McDonald then you’re in luck, as I’ve got him at No. 6 compared to No. 9 per the ECR. The Falcons-Steelers tilt has the highest projected point total from Vegas and McDonald finally has health in his corner. Another plus goes to C.J. Uzomah, who I have at No. 15 compared to No. 24 due to Eifert’s injury and the stronger play of Andy Dalton thus far.

It’s hard not to love Eric Ebron’s setup as one of the last receivers standing in an Indianapolis uniform. While I’m not saying you bench him in a 12-teamer, I do have him at No. 11 compared to No. 7 from the crowd. New England is notorious for taking away a team’s best pass-catching option and Ebron himself is notorious for screwing himself out of production.

Dallas Goedert has an ECR of 15 on Tuesday night and 24 hours later it’s down to 18, but that’s still far too high for me. I’ve got him down at 27 until he shows that he’ll play more than half of Philly’s snaps with Alshon Jeffery back on the field. Sure, his Week 3 was nice, but Jeffery offers that offense a big body on the perimeter.

More Fantasy Football Analysis