Week 7 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Hey, everybody, and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings under the microscope and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). My hope is to help you understand why I’m significantly higher or lower on players than the expert crowd. Do note that the ECR is likely to shift a bit!

Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros (out of 125) last season and sit at 17th (out of 130) so far in ‘18. Decent, no? I’m out to show that 2017 was no fluke and you’ve got a VIP pass to the show. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, as the overall and flex tabs can simply get insane. I focus on QB, RB, WR, and TE -- feel free to holler if you really want K or DEF notes. I'm FantasyPros' third-most accurate on DEF and fifth for kickers!

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough chit-chat, let’s get to it.

Week 7 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

The Jameis Winston party isn’t stopping for me just because he isn’t facing the Falcons again. No, I think his aggressiveness mixes well with a date against the Browns, who defend the run decently as long as the opposing RB isn't a top-10 talent, but are susceptible through the air outside of Denzel Ward. The Bucs are three-point favorites at home with a 49.5 game total, which gives Tampa three or four touchdowns to spread out. Winston projects towards 300+ yards and a three TD day for me.

I also have Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz, and Joe Flacco two slots above the ECR, at No. 8, No. 9 and No. 13, respectively. I think T.Y. Hilton’s return will help a passing attack that Indy is leaning hard on with its ground game still reaching adolescence. Sure, Marlon Mack looked fine, but I doubt he fares well against a Buffalo defense allowing 77 rush yards per game to RBs. Wentz looks incredible out there, showing a strong arm and mobility like no ACL was ever torn. Flacco faces the Saints, ‘nuff said (we’ll touch on it later).

There’s some disagreement within my top-10, but things don’t get interesting until you see Drew Brees outside of my top-12 (No. 14), Baker Mayfield at 17 (No. 14 in ECR) and Deshaun Watson at a paltry 21 (ECR: 17). Brees on the road against a red-hot Ravens squad is far from ideal, so why not pivot elsewhere?

There are very few “must-start” QBs anymore, and Brees is not one of them. Mayfield hasn’t been great himself and his pass-catching corps is questionable at best. Watson only rushed twice for two yards last week with a broken rib and, reportedly, a partially-collapsed lung. He gets real-life points for gritting that out, but no fantasy points. If he can’t comfortably run and has to do it with his arm against Jacksonville then I’m waaay out.

Mayfield will likely draw the most eyebrow raises, but I remain skeptical of this entire offense. The 2018 first overall pick stole the hearts of many in his Thursday night comeback against the Jets in Week 3 but has been betrayed by inconsistent receivers and his own growing pains since. Barely completing 50% of his throws since then and facing a to-date terrible defense that could either turn itself around under a new defensive coordinator or slip further due to miscommunications with a new play-caller, it just makes for a wide range of outcomes that I can’t pin as highly as others are.

Week 7 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

There aren’t many huge gaps in my RB love, but I do have a few fellows of note sitting three slots above ECR. Kerryon Johnson (15 vs. 18), Tarik Cohen (21 vs. 24) and Kenyan Drake (22 vs. 25) should see lots of work in Week 7, with Drake’s outlook being the least certain. Miami knows it has a steady hand in Frank Gore, but Drake is far more dynamic and I doubt Brock Osweiler’s magic leads to a second positive game script.

On the other side of the ball, Vegas has bet Detroit up from one-point to three-point favorites on the road, which bodes well for Johnson and the ground game. Then there’s Cohen, who is easily outplaying Jordan Howard right now as Matt Nagy and company seem to be finding their up-tempo groove.

It’s easier to find RBs I definitely don’t like in Week 7, as Carlos Hyde is buried at No. 24 compared to a No. 11 ECR and Alex Collins and Mark Ingram are down a modest four slots as well. Hyde is trending way down, with an awful 34 yards on 14 carries in Week 6 as the buzz surrounding Nick Chubb continues to grow. He’s a TD-dependent RB3 for me.

Then there’s Collins and Ingram, who square off as decent flex plays around the RB20-25 range, but most are leaning on them for more. Collins is easier to understand, as he punched in two touchdowns in Week 6 to boost his 19 rushes for 54 yards into RB1 territory. But he’s averaging a lousy 3.6 yards per carry and has nine catches over six games. Worst of all, the Saints run defense is allowing a sick 49 rushing yards per game -- second-lowest is Philadelphia at 59.7. The Ravens are yielding 66.8 per game and have surrendered just one TD to an opposing RB thus far.

Week 7 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

We just covered how the Ravens ground game is apt to run into a brick wall up front, but New Orleans’ passing defense is a sieve and Joe Flacco has shown a willingness to let it fly in 2018. As a result, Michael Crabtree is my No. 20 receiver against a 24 ECR, which is noteworthy so high in the rankings. The Saints' pass defense is 32nd, dead last, against No. 1 and No. 2 WRs per FootballOutsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric. John Brown is an air yards darling, but Crabtree's 560 air yards are 14th -- right behind Robert Woods. Don't sleep!

Chicago’s Taylor Gabriel is also up to No. 26 from a 32 ECR mark, as I believe he’s shown good chemistry with Mitch Trubisky on deep balls and has Nagy’s trust in a fast-paced offense. New England shouldn’t ID him as a top weapon to “take away” as they so love to do and Chicago is going to need the points. The Bears defense will surely put up a fight against New England, but I'd wager the Bears need at least 27 points to win this bad boy.

Those trending down are guys like DeSean Jackson, Corey Davis and Will Fuller. We’ve yet to see DJax and Jameis Winston consistently look on the same page. From their Hard Knocks camp up through last week, the targets and air yards are knocking on the door but the volatility means he can’t be in my top-25.

Corey Davis is nearly unplayable for me, as 8-10 targets a week only go so far when Tennessee’s anemic offense can’t sniff the end zone. Will Fuller is dealing with a dinged QB, is dinged himself with a hip injury (he got a limited practice in on Wednesday and appears fine) and goes up against a formidable Jacksonville secondary in Week 7. Yes, the Jags got picked apart in Week 6 but it wasn’t by the perimeter receivers. There’s nothing to like here.

Week 7 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Avoiding the injury-related ECR swings of Evan Engram and Jack Doyle, I’m four slots higher on Kyle Rudolph (6 vs. 10) and also have James O’Shaughnessy up six slots, from 26 into the top-20. The Jags are down Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Niles Paul, leaving O’Shaughnessy with 75% of snaps in Week 6 and a solid floor volume for now. There are worse plays in 16-to-18 team leagues.

Rudolph is more intriguing, I’m sure, as Minnesota is favored by three on the road against the Jets, who just allowed two TDs to Indianapolis TEs. I realize that Adam Thielen is the apple of everyone's eye right now and Dalvin Cook looks poised to make his return, but Rudolph's 87.1% catch rate is well above his peers and his 2.12 fantasy points per target are fifth at the position (per PlayerProfiler). I'm here for it in Week 7.

Those in my “I Like Him Less” column are David Njoku, Trey Burton, Greg Olsen, and Charles Clay. Njoku falls prey to the aforementioned Mayfield shade, while Trey Burton will need to see more than four targets a game before I feel comfortable moving him much higher than No. 10. Olsen was on the sidelines for only one snap of his Week 6 return but remains limited over the middle due to Christian McCaffrey’s receiving work and is a re-injury risk. Clay has an ECR of 18, but I can’t imagine any scenario where I play him.

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