RADIO
Last week was tough for fantasy running backs. David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott were both studs who disappointed. Austin Ekeler was unable to step in place of the inactive Melvin Gordon over in London and we lost both LeSean McCoy and Sony Michel to injuries early in their games. When you combine all of that with the number of timeshares that we have around the league then there are major issues at running back. However, there were some bright spots. Marlon Mack and Nick Chubb both stepped up big time and took advantage of their opportunities.
This is the time of the year when not just adding but also trusting guys like Chubb or Mack can really turn your team around and even turn into a potential league winner. Let's hope you grabbed one or both of these running backs last week or have been stashing them for some time because both of these guys may be just what your team needs to make a playoff run.
So without further ado let me break down why we are handing Nick Chubb a membership card to the RB1 club.
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The Pedigree
Chubb came into the league with a big reputation. You do not get drafted in the second round of the NFL draft without having put up decent numbers. Chubb played four years at Georgia and performed extremely well in a timeshare situation. In each of the three years he played more than six games he had over 1000 rushing yards and over rushing attempts. In his freshman year, he averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per rush while scoring 14 touchdowns.
He never scaled those combined heights again but his junior and senior years were impressive in their own right. In his junior year, he averaged five yards per rush and scored just eight touchdowns. However, in his senior year, he bounced back with an average of six yards per run and an impressive 15 touchdowns. His 44 touchdowns and 4,769 rush yards from college demonstrate he has the ability to make yards and find the end zone on a regular basis.
His issue in college was his pass catching. Chubb managed to catch just 31 passes in his entire time at Georgia, and 18 of them came in the freshman year. Over the two years which made up his Junior and Senior years he caught a total of nine balls for 116 yards and one touchdown. Therefore, his pass-catching is something that we will need to see improve in the NFL if he is to become a truly elite running back in all formats.
His Season So Far
This will not take long because prior to Week 7 Chubb had just 16 total touches. In those six games and 16 carries, he put up just 173 rushing yards. 105 of those yards came in a superb Week 4 performance against the Oakland Raiders where he managed that yardage total on just three rushes, including a long run of 63 yards. In addition, he scored both his touchdowns prior to Week 7 in that game. He was not seeing enough touches around the goal line to be a regular end zone threat. In fact, Chubb had just one rush attempt in the red zone in the first six weeks.
However, things changed in Week 7 after the departure of Carlos Hyde. In the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chubb had 18 rushes for 80 yards. In addition, he saw three red zone rushing attempts which he converted for his third touchdown of the season. This outing demonstrated that Chubb can carry the bulk and have success running the ball in the red zone in the NFL. That combined with the ability to hit a home run with the long rushing touchdowns from Week 4 makes for an interesting combination.
The only slight concern so far this season is that Chubb has seen just three targets and has yet to catch a single pass. As it stands Chubb will be a two-down running back in the large part, with Duke Johnson serving as the third down and pass catching back.
The Opportunity
With the departure of Hyde, there is a massive opportunity for Chubb to receive at least 15 and upwards of 20 touches per game. In his six games with the Browns, Hyde averaged 19 rushes per game with a high of 23 and a low of 14. Chubb looks likely to slot in directly as Hyde's replacement. Chubb demonstrated that he can have success in that role with his Week 7 performance.
Any hesitation as to why Chubb cannot be a running back one going forward should be removed when you look at the number of rushes in Week 7. Chubb ranked fifth when it came to total rushes and 10th when it red zone rushes. In fact, his 19 rushes would have seen him rank among the top-10 most in any of the seven games this season.
Finally, if you look back over the first seven weeks, the Browns lead running back has ranked among the top five in rushing attempts in five weeks and top-10 in a sixth week. Even with Johnson seeing the majority of the passing down work, Chubb should see plenty of touches in the run game and should end most weeks among the running backs with the most usage. At this point, it is hard to look beyond Chubb as a member of the #1 running back club for the rest of the season.
