Week 12 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Howdy, and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings front and center and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).  Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros out of 125 last season and currently sit at 15th in 2018.

You take the time to read our articles and make decisions informed by our analysis, so why wouldn't you check how we're doing? Some advice may come in very entertaining packages, but that doesn't make it good. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

Week 12 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

I know the floor is low -- being benched after turning the ball over three or four times -- but Jameis Winston (My Rank: 4, ECR: 6) is a top-five play. I’m sure many of you have seen the whole “composite TB QB” is the second-ranked QB behind Patrick Mahomes, but you’d have to guess which is playing! While Peyton Barber looked good against the Giants in Week 11, the Bucs are still an air-raid style passing offense with a terrible defense that will launch them into a shootout. Anyway, I remain fully on board this pirate ship.

Of more intrigue to speculators is Russell Wilson (10 vs. 13) and Lamar Jackson (12 vs. 14). What can I say? I’m a sucker for a mobile QB and while I wish Russ wasn’t playing at Carolina, I believe he’ll be needed and Seattle’s RB trio won’t get them through this. Then there’s Jackson, who is a candidate for 100 yards rushing any time he hits the field and expressed a desire to throw more. He won’t tally 27 rushes again -- he can’t if he wants to survive in the NFL -- but anyone with those rushing chops will sniff QB1 territory. Bonus points because he’s facing Oakland’s insulting excuse for a defense.

On the other side of things, you’ll find Aaron Rodgers (11 vs. 8) and fellows like Philip Rivers (13 vs. 11) Ben Roethlisberger (14 vs. 12). The Packers are facing a Vikings squad that held him to 281 yards and one touchdown in Week 2 and haven’t surrendered more than 200 passing yards in either of their last three games despite facing Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford and Mitch Trubisky.

Then there’s Rivers, who faces a Cardinals defense that hasn’t given up over 250 passing yards in five straight games, and Big Ben, who has to push on through Denver’s altitude after tossing three interceptions last week. Denver ranks fourth in passing Defense-adjusted Value Over Average per FootballOutsiders while checking in at 16th against the run. For what it's worth, the Cardinals are fifth against the pass (15th against the run). The Chargers are 12-point favorites at home (44 total) while Pittsburgh is favored by three on the road (47), which speaks to more of a run script in both with the Chargers defense potentially scooping a score on Josh Rosen.

Week 12 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

It’s hard to keep Matt Breida out of RB1 territory (11 vs. 13) going into a dream date with the Buccaneers, as I’m sure San Francisco would prefer to minimize Nick Mullens’ responsibility and let Breida run all over a struggling defense. He put the Giants on their buns two weeks ago (with a 60% snap share, his highest since Week 4) and now the oft-injured RB is coming off of a bye week against a Bucs defense that let Saquon Barkley have his way with them. Count me in. Very in.

The same goes for Josh Adams (21 vs. 26), who gets to face said Giants defense that has broken on the ground since trading Damon Harrison away. They’ve given up lines of 26-149-1 (Adrian Peterson, Week 8), 17-101-1 (Matt Breida, Week 10) and 18-106-1 (Peyton Barber, Week 11). AP and Breida also had receiving touchdowns, which makes Adams -- who just posted a 55% snap share in Week 11 -- a favorite of mine. Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement aren't moving the needle and Darren Sproles isn't ready for action, so let's roll with Adams with Philly favored by 5.5 points.

Those trending down are Adrian Peterson (24 vs. 20), Jordan Howard (26 vs. 23) and Tarik Cohen (30 vs. 27). These running backs share a common thread: dealing with a backup QB. Peterson was able to float his Week 11 rushing line with two touchdowns, but Colt McCoy will need to perform a miracle behind an already-ailing offensive line and sketchy WR corps to consistently bring Washington into the red zone. Ditto Chase Daniel, as Howard will likely need Khali Mack to strip sack Matthew Stafford on the two in order to get an inside-the-five carry.

Week 12 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

It’s cheating to note that A.J. Green (12 vs. 45) is way above the ECR, right? Ok, ok. How about guys like Chris Godwin (34 vs. 39) and Marquise Goodwin (35 vs. 41) stepping into the WR3 ranks? Godwin was questionable all week but still managed 50 receiving yards while playing on 32% of the snaps. With Tampa Bay unable to roll out a frightful two-TE set anymore, Godwin should be a bigger factor in the red zone.

And I know what I said about Breida getting loads of work, but no one on the Bucs can match Goodwin’s speed and just one slant pass could lead to the house. He tallied an 84% snap share in Week 10 that trailed only Kendrick Bourne (95%) with Pierre Garcon out and Goodwin's ~5 targets a week is enough for me given his ceiling per look. This setup is why I recommended Christian Kirk last week and that turned out well!

I can’t sit Kenny Golladay (17 vs. 12) anywhere, but Detroit being without Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones really hurts their chances at getting towards the red zone against a stout Bears defense. Another sinker is Tre’Quan Smith (31 vs. 23), who I simply find hard to trust on a bad foot and his low floor.

Though he’s still ahead of Courtland Sutton (33 vs. 28), who has averaged five targets per game all season long with no change following Demaryius Thomas’ trade. He also hasn’t seen a red-zone target since Week 5. I don’t want to trust Case Keenum to suddenly elevate him against the evidence.

Week 12 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

How about Cameron Brate (6 vs. 9) becoming the man of the TE hour for Tampa Bay now? O.J. Howard is on the IR and Jameis Winston is back at QB, which bodes doubly well for Brate, who has shown great rapport with Winston in the past. I have several players two slots above the ECR, but Jonnu Smith (17 vs. 21) is the biggest jumper.

After being content with three targets a game, Smith tallied eight targets in Week 12 for a 6-44-0 line after catching a TD in Weeks 9 and 10. He faces a Houston defense that has given up a 10-83-1 line to Jeff Heuerman in Week 9 and a 7-71-1 line to Jordan Reed in Week 11. There are far worse darts to throw, even if Marcus Mariota doesn’t play.

Then we’ve got Trey Burton (12 vs. 8) and Evan Engram (18 vs. 14), who I find extremely hard to trust. I noted Burton’s low target volume last week and he turned in a season-low one target as a reward, and now his QB is likely downgraded. Those in PPR leagues can take some solace in an inexperienced QB leaning on a big-target TE, but most should look elsewhere. Okay, but perhaps not in the Giants locker room.

Engram’s plus athleticism obviously remains, but he’s seen four, nine, five and two targets in his last four games. Laugh all you want at the Eagles recent struggles, but they’ve surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to TEs in 2018 and no one has topped 41 yards against them since Week 2. Here are the Giants red-zone opportunities thus far: Barkley (31), Odell Beckham Jr. (19), Sterling Shepard (14), Wayne Gallman (6) and Evan Engram (5). I know he’s missed a little time, but still. Yikes.

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