Week 14 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

6 years ago by Ben Rolfe

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5. More Fantasy Football Analysis

This feels like the first time in ages we have not lost a fantasy gold mine type team to Thursday Night Football. Seriously can one of the Jaguars and Titans play in that slot every week? Their current brand of football suits it so well! What that does mean is that entering the fantasy weekend we have all our favorite fantasy offenses available. However, there is some bad news. The three best offenses, Rams, Chiefs and Saints, all have circumstances which make them tough plays this week. The Chiefs and Rams face two of the best defenses around right now, and the Saints could be playing in a thunderstorm in Tampa. That means we are potentially relying on the Steelers and Chargers to beat up on bad defenses to give us a fun points-filled Sunday afternoon!

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

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Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Patrick Mahomes	12	336.72	28.06	7.13	20.93	35.19	0.25	138.45
2	Philip Rivers	12	236.62	19.72	3.55	16.17	23.27	0.18	129.2
3	Cam Newton	12	262.96	21.91	5.03	16.88	26.95	0.23	117.34
4	Russell Wilson	12	239.14	19.93	4.87	15.06	24.8	0.24	101.47
5	Aaron Rodgers	12	238.96	19.91	5.59	14.32	25.51	0.28	90.81
6	Ben Roethlisberger	12	263.2	21.93	7.74	14.19	29.67	0.35	84.08
7	Andrew Luck	12	246.6	20.55	6.8	13.75	27.35	0.33	82.62
8	Matt Ryan	12	264.62	22.05	8.68	13.38	30.73	0.39	78.1
9	Tom Brady	12	212.88	17.74	5.68	12.06	23.42	0.32	73.15
10	Baker Mayfield	10	168.26	16.83	5.52	11.3	22.35	0.33	68.07
11	Jared Goff	12	258.76	21.56	10.16	11.4	31.73	0.47	67.31
12	Drew Brees	12	265.08	22.09	10.91	11.18	33	0.49	66.84
13	Kirk Cousins	12	229.9	19.16	7.78	11.38	26.94	0.41	66.34
14	Deshaun Watson	12	236.74	19.73	8.5	11.22	28.23	0.43	65.5
15	Dak Prescott	12	213.1	17.76	6.79	10.97	24.55	0.38	64.21
16	Carson Wentz	10	181.44	18.14	7.35	10.8	25.49	0.41	62.94
17	Alex Smith	10	140	14	4.01	9.99	18.01	0.29	62.92
18	Eli Manning	12	176.32	14.69	4.51	10.18	19.21	0.31	62.53
19	Mitchell Trubisky	10	215.06	21.51	12.2	9.31	33.7	0.57	59.42
20	Joe Flacco	9	139.22	15.47	5.51	9.96	20.98	0.36	58.91
21	CJ Beathard	5	80.98	16.2	6.25	9.94	22.45	0.39	58.15
22	Jameis Winston	7	129.54	18.51	8.66	9.85	27.17	0.47	58.05
23	Jimmy Garoppolo	3	46.02	15.34	5.76	9.58	21.1	0.38	56.19
24	Ryan Fitzpatrick	8	165.84	20.73	12.47	8.26	33.2	0.6	55.2
25	Andy Dalton	11	174.54	15.87	6.66	9.21	22.52	0.42	53.7
26	Matthew Stafford	12	180.04	15	5.97	9.03	20.98	0.4	52.7
27	Nick Mullens	4	63.68	15.92	7.53	8.39	23.45	0.47	49.58
28	Case Keenum	12	164.22	13.69	5.22	8.47	18.9	0.38	49.57
29	Derek Carr	12	183.58	15.3	7.84	7.46	23.14	0.51	45.16
30	Blake Bortles	11	173.42	15.77	8.88	6.89	24.64	0.56	43.76

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through thirteen games from largest to smallest. As always I do not have a huge amount to say about the quarterback position. If you are a Rivers owner, beware the potential he gets pulled in the fourth quarter. I am not sure what you can do about it and chances are if he is pulled he has already done well, so you are still starting him whatever.

Baker Mayfield could be in for a nice week against a Panthers team which is falling apart all over the place. Defensive the Panthers have struggled to shut teams downs, and Mayfield should be able to have some sort of bounce back after a tough first half last week.

I wrote about Andrew Luck this week, and if I have a viable alternative on the bench or available to stream, then I am going to look that way. I like Dak Prescott to have a good week against a bad Eagles secondary, and hopefully, we see Mitchell Trubisky back against a meh Rams defense.

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Todd Gurley	12	325.9	27.16	6.56	20.6	33.72	0.24	139.57
2	Melvin Gordon	10	247.5	24.75	5.76	18.99	30.51	0.23	131.04
3	Saquon Barkley	12	302.6	25.22	7.29	17.93	32.5	0.29	112.47
4	Darren Sproles	2	15.4	7.7	0.71	6.99	8.41	0.09	91.55
5	Christian McCaffrey	12	298.6	24.88	10.3	14.58	35.18	0.41	85.01
6	Ezekiel Elliott	12	268.3	22.36	8.51	13.85	30.87	0.38	81.08
7	Alvin Kamara	12	284.7	23.73	11.71	12.02	35.43	0.49	71.8
8	James Conner	12	267.6	22.3	10.72	11.58	33.02	0.48	68.68
9	Kareem Hunt	11	231.2	21.02	9.85	11.17	30.87	0.47	65.87
10	James White	12	234.8	19.57	8.32	11.25	27.89	0.43	65.58
11	Joe Mixon	10	172.1	17.21	7.02	10.19	24.23	0.41	59.39
12	Phillip Lindsay	12	191.6	15.97	7.27	8.7	23.23	0.46	51.05
13	Alex Collins	10	115.6	11.56	3.5	8.06	15.06	0.3	49.75
14	Marshawn Lynch	6	79	13.17	4.92	8.24	18.09	0.37	48.39
15	Leonard Fournette	5	88.8	17.76	10.58	7.18	28.34	0.6	47.57
16	David Johnson	12	192	16	8.19	7.81	24.19	0.51	47.27
17	Kerryon Johnson	10	142.4	14.24	6.2	8.04	20.44	0.44	46.94
18	TJ Yeldon	12	172.3	14.36	6.82	7.54	21.18	0.47	44.6
19	Devonta Freeman	2	14.1	7.05	1.34	5.71	8.39	0.19	44.04
20	Lamar Miller	11	146	13.27	5.79	7.48	19.06	0.44	43.7
21	Tarik Cohen	12	196.4	16.37	10.21	6.16	26.57	0.62	42.61
22	Aaron Jones	10	153.1	15.31	9.04	6.27	24.35	0.59	41.25
23	Adrian Peterson	12	168.3	14.03	7.97	6.06	21.99	0.57	38.71
24	Theo Riddick	10	92.2	9.22	3.05	6.17	12.27	0.33	37.11
25	Kenyan Drake	12	167	13.92	8.69	5.22	22.61	0.62	36.2
26	Chris Carson	10	120.1	12.01	6.26	5.75	18.27	0.52	35.06
27	Dalvin Cook	7	83.6	11.94	6.45	5.5	18.39	0.54	34.07
28	Tevin Coleman	12	150.5	12.54	7.49	5.05	20.03	0.6	33.54
29	Mark Ingram	8	105.2	13.15	8.52	4.63	21.67	0.65	33.45
30	Jalen Richard	12	125.2	10.43	4.87	5.56	15.3	0.47	32.78
31	Austin Ekeler	12	143.6	11.97	7.15	4.82	19.12	0.6	31.99
32	Marlon Mack	8	110.3	13.79	10.53	3.26	24.32	0.76	31.84
33	Jay Ajayi	4	43.4	10.85	5.69	5.16	16.54	0.52	31.55
34	Matt Breida	12	146.3	12.19	8.1	4.09	20.29	0.66	30.54
35	Sony Michel	9	106.9	11.88	8.08	3.8	19.95	0.68	29.35
36	Dion Lewis	12	134.3	11.19	7.24	3.95	18.43	0.65	28.5
37	Jeff Wilson	2	26.5	13.25	11.53	1.72	24.78	0.87	28.48
38	Isaiah Crowell	12	141	11.75	8.34	3.41	20.09	0.71	28.3
39	Jordan Howard	12	116.8	9.73	5.19	4.54	14.93	0.53	27.97
40	Nyheim Hines	12	126.6	10.55	6.72	3.83	17.27	0.64	27.1
41	Chris Thompson	6	71.3	11.88	9.64	2.24	21.53	0.81	26.53
42	Nick Chubb	12	150.7	12.56	11.88	0.68	24.44	0.95	25.83
43	Bilal Powell	7	62.3	8.9	4.93	3.97	13.83	0.55	24.97
44	LeSean McCoy	11	109.8	9.98	6.66	3.32	16.64	0.67	24.94
45	Kenneth Dixon	2	15.7	7.85	3.61	4.24	11.46	0.46	24.94
46	Peyton Barber	12	115.6	9.63	6.07	3.56	15.7	0.63	24.92
47	Ty Montgomery	9	68.3	7.59	3.55	4.04	11.14	0.47	23.82
48	Ty Montgomery	9	68.3	7.59	3.55	4.04	11.14	0.47	23.82
49	Royce Freeman	10	77.5	7.75	3.89	3.86	11.64	0.5	23.17
50	Giovani Bernard	8	81.2	10.15	8.3	1.85	18.45	0.82	22.56

It was nice to see Sproles get back on the field last week but from a fantasy point of view he is only an option in really deep leagues because of a low ceiling based on the timeshare in that backfield. James Conner is out this week and Jaylen Samuels steps in as a must play against a bad Raider defence. Lamar Miller has been riding high recently but the Colts defence has not been a push over this season. I am still trusting him given his recent form but he is a player that never inspires confidence.

Chris Carson has been limited in practice this week so his Saturday practice availability will be key ahead of the Monday Night Football game. However, there are now quite a few mouths to feed in that backfield, so given the injury questions, it will be hard to trust him. We are starting to see the Austin Ekeler star fade and the Justin Jackson stock rise. As the lead back you still have to start Ekeler against the woeful Bengals defense, but Jackson could also have flex appeal this week.

Just to finish on Peyton Barber who has a matchup against one of the toughest run defenses in the league in terms of yards surrendered. However, the Saints defense has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season, and Barber has three in his last three games.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Antonio Brown	12	255.8	21.32	5.32	16	26.64	0.25	106.72
2	Davante Adams	12	262.5	21.88	5.79	16.08	27.67	0.26	104.48
3	Adam Thielen	12	271.6	22.63	6.64	15.99	29.28	0.29	99.74
4	DeAndre Hopkins	12	243.8	20.32	6.16	14.15	26.48	0.3	87.3
5	Julian Edelman	8	129.8	16.23	3.81	12.42	20.03	0.23	85.37
6	Julio Jones	12	240.4	20.03	7.74	12.29	27.77	0.39	71.9
7	Odell Beckham Jr	12	223.1	18.59	6.86	11.73	25.45	0.37	69
8	Brandin Cooks	11	194.7	17.7	6.54	11.16	24.24	0.37	65.61
9	Keenan Allen	12	220.1	18.34	7.31	11.03	25.66	0.4	64.34
10	Robert Woods	12	205.3	17.11	6.51	10.6	23.61	0.38	62.1
11	Tyler Lockett	12	175.1	14.59	4.72	9.88	19.31	0.32	59.74
12	Michael Thomas	12	253	21.08	11.67	9.41	32.75	0.55	59.18
13	Stefon Diggs	11	214.7	19.52	9.62	9.89	29.14	0.49	59.1
14	Tyreek Hill	12	258.7	21.56	13.21	8.35	34.77	0.61	56.74
15	JuJu Smith-Schuster	12	218.7	18.23	8.72	9.5	26.95	0.48	56.3
16	AJ Green	9	158.4	17.6	8.17	9.43	25.77	0.46	55.5
17	Emmanuel Sanders	12	194.1	16.18	7.27	8.9	23.45	0.45	52.15
18	Mike Evans	12	212.1	17.68	9.08	8.59	26.76	0.51	52.07
19	Tyler Boyd	12	200.1	16.68	8.16	8.52	24.83	0.49	50.76
20	TY Hilton	10	167.7	16.77	8.56	8.21	25.33	0.51	49.61
21	Trey Quinn	2	22.5	11.25	3.32	7.93	14.57	0.3	49.33
22	Cooper Kupp	8	135.1	16.89	10.49	6.4	27.38	0.62	44.07
23	Will Fuller	7	108.3	15.47	8.55	6.92	24.02	0.55	43.46
24	Kenny Golladay	12	171.2	14.27	7.1	7.17	21.36	0.5	42.94
25	Curtis Samuel	8	97	12.13	5.01	7.11	17.14	0.41	41.45
26	Josh Gordon	10	124.2	12.42	5.33	7.09	17.75	0.43	41.37
27	Keith Kirkwood	4	30.3	7.58	1.7	5.88	9.27	0.22	41.33
28	Willie Snead	11	113	10.27	3.47	6.8	13.74	0.34	40.69
29	Golden Tate	11	161.3	14.66	8.34	6.32	23.01	0.57	40.44
30	Geronimo Allison	5	62.3	12.46	5.98	6.48	18.44	0.48	38.42
31	Chris Godwin	12	147.6	12.3	5.86	6.44	18.16	0.48	38.11
32	Isaiah McKenzie	3	24.1	8.03	2.21	5.83	10.24	0.27	37.3
33	DeSean Jackson	11	150.5	13.68	8.04	5.64	21.72	0.59	36.96
34	Jarvis Landry	12	156.3	13.03	7.42	5.6	20.45	0.57	35.89
35	Marvin Jones	9	116.8	12.98	7.51	5.47	20.49	0.58	35.4
36	Brandon LaFell	4	37.5	9.38	3.38	5.99	12.76	0.36	35.35
37	Cameron Meredith	3	26.4	8.8	3.01	5.79	11.81	0.34	34.51
38	Adam Humphries	12	148.7	12.39	7.28	5.11	19.67	0.59	33.49
39	Corey Davis	12	159.8	13.32	8.84	4.47	22.16	0.66	33.37
40	Allen Robinson	10	126.3	12.63	7.96	4.67	20.59	0.63	32.68
41	Mohamed Sanu	12	121.5	10.13	4.62	5.51	14.74	0.46	32.33
42	Devin Funchess	11	123.6	11.24	6	5.23	17.24	0.53	32.27
43	Alshon Jeffery	9	119.2	13.24	9.31	3.93	22.56	0.7	32.08
44	Dede Westbrook	12	132.3	11.03	5.91	5.11	16.94	0.54	31.59
45	Christian Kirk	12	126.5	10.54	5.35	5.19	15.89	0.51	31.3
46	Calvin Ridley	12	166.4	13.87	11.09	2.78	24.95	0.8	31.21
47	Anthony Miller	11	112.4	10.22	5.04	5.18	15.26	0.49	30.94
48	Albert Wilson	7	90.7	12.96	9.55	3.41	22.5	0.74	30.55
49	Paul Richardson	7	59.1	8.44	3.23	5.21	11.67	0.38	30.52
50	Sterling Shepard	12	139.5	11.63	7.17	4.46	18.79	0.62	30.48

Wide receiver is a little like quarterback in terms of the best guys are where you expect them to be. Tyler Boyd as the lead back in Cincinnati could see plenty of targets but I just do not trust Jeff Driskel to get it right consistently. Kenny Golladay has really stepped up as the number one in Detroit but they have another reasonably tough matchup against the Cardinals.

Adam Humphries has been a recent star for the Buccaneers and seems to have a real rapport with Jameis Winston. He has receiving touchdowns in his last three games and will remain the number three receiver with DeSean Jackson out this week. It is sad to see Christian Kirk done for the year but it has been hard to trust him, and the Detroit secondary has some nice pieces, so he was not a huge loss this week.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Games	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Travis Kelce	12	241.2	20.1	10.65	9.45	30.75	0.53	58.03
2	Zach Ertz	12	228.8	19.07	9.5	9.57	28.57	0.5	57.33
3	George Kittle	12	172.3	14.36	6.26	8.1	20.62	0.44	47.3
4	Eric Ebron	12	182.9	15.24	7.9	7.34	23.14	0.52	44.65
5	Tyler Conklin	2	3.3	1.65	0.07	1.58	1.72	0.04	40.15
6	Hakeem Valles	2	3.1	1.55	0.07	1.48	1.62	0.05	35.53
7	OJ Howard	10	124.5	12.45	6.99	5.46	19.44	0.56	34.62
8	Jordan Reed	12	123.8	10.32	4.42	5.9	14.73	0.43	34.42
9	Jared Cook	12	160.9	13.41	9.18	4.23	22.59	0.68	33
10	Austin Hooper	12	137	11.42	6.72	4.7	18.14	0.59	30.82
11	Jack Doyle	6	62.5	10.42	5.33	5.09	15.75	0.51	30.78
12	Rob Gronkowski	9	100	11.11	6.48	4.63	17.59	0.58	30.16
13	Tyler Eifert	4	38.9	9.73	4.65	5.07	14.38	0.48	30.05
14	Kyle Rudolph	12	107.3	8.94	3.87	5.07	12.81	0.43	29.59
15	Vance McDonald	11	105.2	9.56	5.53	4.03	15.09	0.58	26.11
16	Greg Olsen	9	83.1	9.23	5.66	3.58	14.89	0.61	24.3
17	Jimmy Graham	12	109.6	9.13	5.57	3.56	14.71	0.61	24.1
18	Geoff Swaim	8	56.2	7.03	3.11	3.92	10.13	0.44	22.92
19	Evan Engram	7	62.7	8.96	5.93	3.03	14.89	0.66	22.49
20	Chris Herndon IV	10	83.5	8.35	5.01	3.34	13.36	0.6	22.25
21	Mark Andrews	12	76.4	6.37	2.6	3.77	8.96	0.41	21.97
22	David Njoku	12	107.9	8.99	6.27	2.72	15.26	0.7	21.89
23	Trey Burton	12	114.8	9.57	7.97	1.6	17.54	0.83	21.05
24	Anthony Firkser	5	36.4	7.28	4.28	3	11.56	0.59	19.66
25	Lee Smith	4	20.9	5.23	1.9	3.32	7.13	0.36	19.57
26	Ben Watson	9	71.3	7.92	5.51	2.41	13.43	0.7	19.31
27	CJ Uzomah	12	78	6.5	3.73	2.77	10.23	0.57	17.82
28	Will Dissly	4	35.6	8.9	8.98	-0.08	17.88	1.01	17.72
29	Cameron Brate	11	70.1	6.37	4.28	2.1	10.65	0.67	15.87
30	Jake Butt	3	16.5	5.5	3.04	2.46	8.54	0.55	15.44

If you can start one of the top three in any format then you simply have to do it. Eric Ebron has been on the injury report this week which is a huge concern but if he is active the Titans had been having problems with the tight end position. Austin Hooper seems to keep finding value every week and has become an almost impossible guy to ignore. Matt Ryan seems to trust him and we have reached a point where so should you.

It's been tough sledding for the likes of Evan Engram, David Njoku and Trey Burton. Engram and Njoku have never fully seemed healthy this season, and Burton has been hampered lately by the loss of Trubisky. If Njoku is good to go he has a nice matchup against the Panthers defense this week. Equally, if Trubisky is back, then Burton becomes an interesting start this week.