Week 16 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Greetings to those of you still in the playoff hunt and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings up on a projector and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). I’m currently 11th in FantasyPros accuracy competition after finishing ninth (out of 130) in 2017.

I hope this piece gives you a glimpse into my rationale for deviating from the ECR, which might help you get another perspective for your championship push. Don’t settle for less and hold your advice to high standards. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough intro, let’s get to it.

Week 16 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

The only notable jumpers are Mitch Trubisky (My Rank: 10, ECR: 13) and Josh Allen (11 vs. 14), who I like for related reasons. They both run -- even if they aren’t designed runs most of the time -- and have an emerging set of weapons around them. Chicago’s arsenal is certainly deeper, but Buffalo did a great service to Allen and themselves by clearing out Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes to inject the next generation of Robert Foster and Isaiah McKenzie into their offense. The Bills were down to zero healthy RBs at points in Week 15 and yet Allen still delivered and didn’t turn the ball over in the 14-13 victory.

On the dark side was Cam Newton, but he and his fantasy owners seem to have been mercifully put out of their misery in 2018. That shoulder looked to be deteriorating at a terrifying pace. Anyway, the real downer for me is Dak Prescott (15 vs. 8), who I think is buzzing due to a matchup that isn’t all that green.

The Buccaneers defense was a laughing stock under ex-DC Mike Smith, but the Bucs haven’t given up a three-TD passing effort since canning him in Week 6. Since then, Tampa’s new DC has reportedly cut down on all the fluff and simplified the defense, which has led to stronger play. I’m not saying they’re good now, but don’t blindly read into the season-long numbers here.

Week 16 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

This isn’t necessarily a start/sit article, so I think it’s worth noting that I have Derrick Henry (6 vs. 10) and Marlon Mack (8 vs. 12) much higher than the ECR given their relative room to be raised. Henry has been single-handedly fueling the Titans offense and gets another stellar and easily-controlled matchup against a broken Washington squad. Mack gets a similar spot against a Giants defense that sorely misses Damon Harrison upfront and Landon Collins as a second-level presence.

Tevin Coleman (15 vs. 21) laughed in my face last week by ripping the Cardinals apart, though he also benefitted from Ito Smith’s knee injury flaring up. Smith is now on the IR and Coleman should get the bulk of the backfield's work in Week 16 against a Carolina defense that just gave up 130 yards to New Orleans' RB duo and has yielded a TD to running backs in six straight games, while also facing demoralization due a lost season and being put in terrible field position by Taylor Heinicke.

Then there’s Jamaal Williams (17 vs. 20), who is an easy RB2 for me if Aaron Rodgers suits up. I’d still project tons of volume for him should it be Deshone Kizer under center, but the chances of getting into the red zone would shoot down. On paper, the Jets run defense looks better of late, but their last two games have seen the starting RB going against them succumb to an early injury (LeSean McCoy in Week 13, Lamar Miller in Week 14). Their three previous games saw them yield an average of 155 rushing yards to opponents (BUF, NE, TEN), so I'm in on Jamaal.

Those I’m lower on are Dalvin Cook (13 vs. 9), James White (30 vs. 25) and Josh Adams (32 vs. 27). We all saw Cook steamroll the competition in Week 15, but did you know Latavius Murray got four red-zone opportunities while Cook had just one? I realize scoring from far out influences this, but I worry that Murray’s role needs reinforcing because Minnesota had been playing from behind in previous weeks. They should once again play from ahead on Sunday, so don’t be surprised if Dalvin isn’t in there when the Vikes get near paydirt.

White is more of a footnote, as he's played on 40% of New England's snaps in his last two games, cobbling together 65 combined yards from scrimmage in the process. Rex Burkhead has eaten into his ceiling and takes some red-zone passing work for himself, leaving White's range of outcomes in a sad state. The Patriots backfield is known for shenanigans so I understand throwing him out there and hoping, but I'm quite pessimistic here.

Adams looked to be a waiver-wire hero in Weeks 11-13, but has parlayed 22 carries into just 64 yards over his last two games (admittedly tough road matchups against the Cowboys and Rams) while Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles simply look fresher. Philly HC Doug Pederson didn’t shy away from a committee in the early season when Jay Ajayi was active and it seems we’re there again. Week 15 saw the follow snap counts for Philly’s RBs: Adams - 38%, Smallwood - 31% and Sproles - 31%. And now he has to deliver against Houston’s strong front seven on limited snaps? Meh.

Week 16 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

Anyone with Robert Woods (8 vs. 12) should feel confident in his carrying your team as a WR1. His working in the slot means he’ll avoid Patrick Peterson and with Todd Gurley possibly limited and/or out, Woods should be the Rams’ most consistent weapon to move the sticks.

Those needing to go deeper shouldn’t be afraid of the new Broncos, as Daesean Hamilton (36 vs. 48) and Tim Patrick (45 vs. 59). The Courtland Sutton takeover hasn’t occurred despite Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders vacating their roles due to trade and injury, respectively. Sutton has yet to top seven targets in a game while Hamilton saw 12 targets in Week 15 (and Patrick had eight). Mix in a date with Oakland, who seems to handle de facto No. 1 WRs well while secondary targets get to feast.

Might I also suggest Taywan Taylor (51 vs. 67), who has quietly seen one more target than Corey Davis over Tennessee’s last two games (13 to 12). It’s a dart throw in a game with a Vegas total of 37 and Marcus Mariota has a toe injury that could limit him, so I admit there are plenty of pitfalls, but it’s also just WR51 so relax!

Wideouts that I have pegged for disappointment are the aforementioned Sutton (35 vs. 29), Larry Fitzgerald (38 vs. 30) and Calvin Ridley (32 vs. 27). We discussed Sutton’s downside and lack of volume, so let’s move along. Fitzgerald is a legend, but even he cannot make Josh Rosen and/or Mike Glennon into a viable quarterback. Vegas currently has Arizona pegged for about 14 points against the Rams -- and that's with the home-field advantage bump -- which leaves this offense nearly untouchable outside of David Johnson.

Ridley was the apple of fantasy eyes earlier in the season as the TDs flowed, but his usual 60-70% snap share sits well behind Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, who regularly hang at 90%. Ridley also hasn’t seen a red-zone target since Week 12, despite four other WRs seeing one in Week 15 alone. That’s not to say he isn’t involved -- he’s just three weeks removed from a 13-target game but his 16 targets in three games since are disappointing. For context, the same three-game window has seen Jones garner 27 looks while Sanu has 18. Perhaps Atlanta schemes more three-wide sets with Ito Smith’s passing work gone, but I can’t bank on that.

Week 16 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

The tight ends entering relevance for me are Jimmy Graham (12 vs. 17) and Blake Jarwin (18 vs. 24). Graham is running alongside Randall Cobb as the preferred secondary options behind Davante Adams in the passing game, with 21 targets over his last three tilts compared to Adams’ 37 (!) and Cobb’s 18. As much as I enjoy Jamaal Williams’ prospects as lead RB, there’s no ignoring the downgrade for the rushing attack. As such, I’m weighing the passing options a bit more, so into the top-12 goes Graham.

Those needing a deeper TE dart should lean on Jarwin, who is one-of-three Cowboys to see seven or more targets in each of Dallas’ last two games. Well, it seems one target is disputed between sources, but you get it. He’s no Amari Cooper or Ezekiel Elliott, but the Cowboys have finally started utilizing their TEs instead of forcing Allen Hurns into being a thing. Once again, the Bucs defense isn’t the same laughable one that let TE Vance McDonald banish Chris Conte to the shadow realm, but they’re not a brick wall either and so Jarwin’s involvement makes him a TE2 factor.

Tight ends that I’m tighter on are Austin Hooper (14 vs. 11), Chris Herndon (16 vs. 13) and Kyle Rudolph (20 vs. 15). All three of those guys are hanging around the top-12 that I have a hard time trusting, and while the guys I like may still be lower than my negatives, it’s still important to discuss them in the context of the ECR because it provides lots of direction.

Hooper saw just one target in Week 15 and has just 17 over Atlanta’s last four games. He’s topped five targets just 33% of the time this season and I have a hard time buying into that low volume. Herndon showed improved chemistry with Sam Darnold in Week 15, but Herndon has just 11 targets over the last three games per AirYards.com -- same as Rudolph and just one more than Dallas Goedert and Demetrius Harris. Rudolph's snap share fell to a season-low 74% last week as he saw just three targets for the second time in Minny's last three games. Hard pass!

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