Week 17 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Hello, you faithful Week 17 readers, and welcome to the final (unofficial) edition of my weekly rankings article where I stump for myself against the Expert Consensus Rankings. My hope is to help you understand why I’m significantly higher or lower on players than the crowd, but Week 17 is a bit different.

Since the ECR will fluctuate more than my weight around the holidays, I’m going to touch on those obnoxious resting scenarios and hopefully you can see within the tables who I'd prefer. That said, there are still some notable risers and fallers against the crowd. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough intro, let’s get to it.

Week 17 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Those in serious danger of not playing are Drew Brees and Dak Prescott, though I can’t advocate for playing Teddy Bridgewater or ____ at this time. The ripple effect for the Saints are obviously greater since they have more fantasy playmakers. You can only bench so many people, but it’s safe to say that no matter what, Brees cannot be relied upon. Prescott has stronger chances since Jerry Jones claims the Cowboys are going all-out against the Giants, who should appreciate being defeated for the higher draft pick.

Otherwise, I have Jameis Winston at No. 4 compared to an ECR of 11 as the Bucs host the Falcons in one of the two games Vegas has pegged for 50+ points. ATL-TB opened with a total of 49.5 and has bumped up to 51 at some books while OAK-KC opened at 54 but has fallen to 52 at several books. Even though Winston has dialed down the aggression and Peyton Barber has improved, Winston’s still a mobile QB with a subpar rushing attack. Since Winston regained the starting role in Week 12, Tampa Bay ranks 11th in both total plays run (316) and passing percentage (61%). Throw in Atlanta’s vulnerable secondary and we’ve got something.

The ECR loves Andrew Luck (My Rank: 9, ECR: 5) but I’m wary of propping up guys facing Tennessee’s defense, who have yielded just 18 passing TDs against 10 INTs. I also have Philip Rivers (16 vs. 10) and Baker Mayfield (21 vs. 17) well outside of QB1 territory, as all three of these guys face top-10 defenses re: fantasy points allowed to QBs. The Chargers have to travel into Denver, which typically isn’t great for anyone, but Denver’s offense is also terrible and is now down Phillip Lindsay. Yikes, I can see why the Vegas total is staying at 41.5.

Meanwhile, Mayfield traveling to Baltimore where that defense has playoff aspirations on the line is a horrific spot, and Vegas has Cleveland scoring just 17 points. The Ravens D continues to swarm and has allowed just 3,275 passing yards this season -- the third-fewest total -- and while Cleveland’s on the upswing, they’re still a young team that I can’t trust to overcome these odds.

Week 17 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

With James Conner practicing in full on Wednesday, I’m going to line him up as Pittsburgh’s starter in my ranks at No. 11. The Chiefs appear to have Spencer Ware (32 vs. 60) returning, and I imagine he picks up ~35% of the snaps alongside Damien Williams (16 vs. 7) and a smattering of Darrel Williams and Charcandrick West (neither are playable). As you can see, I still prefer Damien Williams and the crowd might feel Ware isn’t going to play, though I’d think KC wants Ware to see game action before the playoffs.

The Texans report Lamar Miller (33 vs. 44) will play in Week 17, which will help balance their offense since Alfred Blue just isn’t good and D’Onta Foreman can’t handle that many touches in his second game back. Miller’s a reinjury risk with perhaps 50% of the RB work as seven-point favorites over Jacksonville with a lousy 40-point total.

Then there’s New Orleans again, who may see Dwayne Washington be their leading rusher over Alvin Kamara or Mark Ingram. None of them are viable options. I’ll understand if you want to believe the aforementioned Jerry Jones, but Ezekiel Elliott (30 vs. 16) is going to sit in “barely flexible” territory from me. He’s a stud, but unless we hear something definitive from the coaches and players closer to the game then both Zeke and Rod Smith are DFS tourney plays only.

And while Elijah McGuire (24 vs. 15) helped many fantasy owners to a Week 16 win, I have a hard time buying into the Jets ground game since they’re 13.5-point underdogs and the Jets only run the ball 33% of the time when down by seven points or more. Luckily, McGuire is involved in the passing game as well, but New England held he and Isaiah Crowell to just 86 total yards in Week 12.

Further down the ranking tables, you’ll find Darren Sproles (47 vs. 37), who turned 12 touches into 108 yards and a touchdown in Week 16 and seems to have caught everyone’s attention too. The thing is, Sproles is the hurry-up receiving back that matched the crazy shootout that Philly was engaged in against the Texans, but a date against Washington should be much different. The Eagles are favored by a touchdown despite being on the road, which should lend itself more to Josh Adams as they power over a broken Washington squad.

Week 17 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I’ve put Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper and Odell Beckham Jr. in a cluster around WR40-42 but once again, they’re not trustworthy -- and if you must trust one, it’s Cooper against the Giants. Players that are lesser thought of such as Jordy Nelson (25 vs. 31), Mohamed Sanu (26 vs. 35), Jamison Crowder (31 vs. 39) and even Ted Ginn (33 vs. 81) are preferable. Nelson, Sanu and Crowder are all going against defenses worth attacking, but Ginn is the most noticeable beneficiary of the Saints benching studs after he slid right into eight targets after being activated from the IR last week. He easily overtook Tre’Quan Smith and company in the passing game and still has an incredible ceiling thanks to his speed.

I’m surprised to see everyone else so high on Broncos receivers. I have Courtland Sutton (34 vs. 28), Daesean Hamilton (35 vs. 25) and Tim Patrick (48 vs. 41) all considerably lower, as Vegas pegs this as a 24-17 road victory for the Chargers and Denver is coming off of an embarrassing loss to Oakland. No Lindsay hamstrings the rushing attack and decreases their chances at hitting the red zone, but also these guys haven’t performed against D’s such as LAC’s.

Denver’s faced Cincinnati, San Francisco, Cleveland and Oakland over their last four games. FootballOutsiders’ DVOA pass defense ranking for each team is respectively 28th, 23rd, 11th and 30th. The Chargers are seventh. Sutton hung 4-85-1 on CIN and 6-65-1 against OAK, but posted an ugly 2-14-0 at San Fran and 5-42-0 versus CLE. Hamilton found paydirt against SF and OAK, but the 7-46-0 line against CLE is more likely in this spot and he’s yet to top 50 yards in a game. But at least both get targeted in the red zone, as Patrick has only seen one RZ opportunity and that came back in Week 2.

Week 17 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Tight ends outside of Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz have been fickle all season long, and it won’t get easier in Week 17. Eric Ebron has been a red-zone machine but will need to clear concussion protocol in order to play. Evan Engram gets hammered with targets when Odell Beckham Jr. misses time, making him a top-six option. Jaylen Samuels becomes nearly impossible to trust if James Conner is active.

Looks like the Packers aren’t going down without a fight, and while Jimmy Graham (13 vs. 18) wasn’t a part of Week 16’s fun, he’s garnered 24 targets over his last four games and Green Bay stand as eight-point favorites over Detroit. While I love siding with Aaron Rodgers, I may wind up ranking Gerald Everett (14 vs. 17) over him by game time. The Rams could go up big early against the 49ers and Everett has turned into Jared Goff’s safety blanket, catching five passes in Week 16 (for only 28 yards) in his third straight week of six or more targets. Looks like that in an offense with this potential is worth a lot!

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