RADIO
Down the stretch they come in the National Football League and Week 13 brings some critical games as teams battle for playoff positioning.
The marquee game of the week involves the San Francisco 49ers traveling to Baltimore to face the surging Ravens. The Sunday nightery could be a good one, too, with the New England Patriots going to Houston to face the Texans. The Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts will fight head-to-head for their playoff lives and the Oakland Raiders could bring the Kansas City Chiefs back to the pack in the AFC West.
Sunday’s schedule means lots of opportunities to play props and win so here are some angles to consider before making your Week 13 prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Jameis Winston OVER 290.5 PASSING YARDS – One of the most exciting players in the league, both good and bad, Winston has thrown for more than 300 yards in eight of the past nine games. Jacksonville’s pass defense is okay – 222.3 passing yards per game is a little better than average, and 7.6 passing yards per attempt is a little worse than average – but the Buccaneers have the receiving corps that Winston should be able to put up yards against just about any opposition.
Nick Foles UNDER 277.5 PASSING YARDS – Since returning from injury, the Jaguars quarterback has thrown 95 passes in two games. He’s put up 568 passing yards too but it’s not that impressive when accounting for just how much the Jaguars have thrown the ball in the past two games. In any case, Tampa Bay is allowing 289.9 passing yards per game, the second-highest average in the league, and yet it feels like Foles would need to throw another 40-plus times to get there and that doesn’t seem like the right plan of attack.
Sam Darnold OVER 267.5 PASSING YARDS – Until a couple of weeks ago, this would have looked like a clear under but Darnold has passed for 608 yards in the past two games and is facing a Cincinnati Bengals team that is allowing a league-high 9.0 yards per pass attempt. Even if the Jets jump out to a lead, it’s not unreasonable to think that Darnold might throw the ball 30 times and, based on the Bengals’ averages, that would be enough to hit the over.
Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 267.5 PASSING YARDS – Jimmy G hasn’t been chucking the ball with utmost effectiveness. In the past eight games, he’s thrown for more than 267 yards twice, which makes it difficult to project him for more going into Baltimore to face a Ravens team that has above-average pass defense.
Mike Evans OVER 83.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Although Evans has been held to 82 or fewer yards in three straight games, and has recorded more than 83 receiving yards five times in 12 games this season, Evans is also averaging 94.8 receiving yards per game – when he hits the over, he really hits the over! In any case, he’s been kept under wraps enough and can put up the necessary yardage at Jacksonville.
RAPID FIRE
D.J. Moore +0.5 receptions vs. Davante Adams – Adams is battling a toe injury, yet he is still Aaron Rodgers’ preferred target, when healthy. In his past four games, Adams has double-digit targets in each one and is averaging 7.8 receptions per game. Those are good numbers, but maybe not good enough to prefer Adams over Moore, the Panthers wideout who has been a more consistent producer, averaging 7.0 receptions and 10.7 targets over the past six games.
Nick Chubb +22.5 rushing yards vs. Christian McCaffrey – McCaffrey holds the best rushing yards per game average in the league at 102.1 but Chubb isn’t far behind at 101.5 rushing yards per game and he has run for at least 90 yards in five of the past six games. Chubb faces a Steelers Defense that is tougher against the run than the Washington squad that McCaffrey will face but it’s not enough to like McCaffrey by more than 22 yards.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 336.5 PASSING YARDS – Can Patrick Mahomes put up the numbers against Oakland to hit the over here? Sure, he could, but he’s also been held under 335 yards passing in four of his past five starts, not including Week 7 when he was injured after throwing 11 passes. At the same time, he threw for 443 yards the last time that he faced the Oakland Raiders, in Week 2, so the question is whether to play for Mahomes’ ceiling or go by recent trends.
Jared Goff UNDER 292.5 PASSING YARDS – Even with a full complement of receivers, the Rams quarterback is a risky pick because he’s been held under 290 passing yards in five of his past six starts. Arizona is allowing a league-high 297.5 passing yards per game but it’s getting to the point that it’s fair to expect Goff’s performance to be below average.
Kyler Murray OVER 19.5 FANTASY POINTS – On one hand, the Los Angeles Rams are an above-average pass defense and should have an edge on the Cardinals. On the other hand, Murray has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three straight games and he has thrown one interception in the past seven games. Figure that the Cardinals may have to play some catch-up in this game and that should give Murray ample opportunity to put up the yardage and/or the scores necessary to hit the over.
Tyreek Hill UNDER 92.5 RECEIVING YARDS – The Chiefs’ big-play threat has surpassed 92 yards twice in seven games this season and left Week 11 with a hamstring injury. Even if healthy, Hill may have a hard time putting up enough yardage against the Raiders.
RAPID FIRE
Cooper Kupp +0.5 receptions vs. Keenan Allen – Kupp has recorded at least six receptions in seven of 11 games this season, while Allen has put up at least six receptions in six of 11 games. It’s close enough to like Kupp as the underdog going against Arizona’s suspect pass defense.
Josh Jacobs -7.5 rushing yards vs. Melvin Gordon – He was held to a season-low 34 rushing yards against the Jets last week, but Jacobs is averaging 87.0 rushing yards per game. He’s going up against a Chiefs team that is allowing 5.1 yards per carry. Gordon is averaging just 52.7 rushing yards per game but has been better recently, averaging 85.7 rushing yards per game over the past three games. Still, Jacobs has been the more reliable option and the matchup against Kansas City is more favorable than Gordon’s matchup with Denver.
