ADP Showdown: Keston Hiura vs. Ketel Marte

Heading into 2020 drafts, we see that second base is a relatively deep position. Of course, in terms of elite options, there are roughly seven choices at second base at the top of draft boards. As a result, you want to make sure you choose correctly to get the best value for one of your early-round draft picks if you opt to spend that capital on a second baseman.

In this article, we will take a look at two top-end second basemen who are going very close together in the early rounds of drafts: the Milwaukee Brewers’ Keston Hiura (ADP 43, second base 5) and the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte (ADP 43, second base 6).

These two are being drafted almost interchangeably as noted by their ADP, but does one offer more upside and value than the other? We will take a look at each player closely to determine which of the two you should take around ADP 43.

Average Concerns But Sustainable Power

Prior to 2019, the Brewers 2017 first-round pick Hiura had hit only 17 home runs through 722 plate appearances in the minor leagues. In 2019, however, Hiura’s power production exploded. He hit 19 HR in 243 Triple-A plate appearances leading to a deserved promotion to the majors. Hiura did not disappoint. He produced an impressive line of .303-19-49-51-9 in 84 games played with the Brewers. The question now is, can Hiura repeat such production in his sophomore season?

Although Hiura’s pedigree and minor league history suggest a solid floor for batting average, his 2019 .303 batting average is likely headed for regression. First, his average was supported by a BABIP of .402. Although his minor league numbers reveal a tendency to hit for high BABIP, .402 is likely unsustainable even for Hiura. Secondly, Hiura’s 2019 xBA of .266, SwStk% of 17.5% and a strikeout rate of 30.7% would further suggest some average regression in 2020.

While Hiura may see a regression in average, the good news is that his power output in 2019 appears quite sustainable. In 2019 Hiura belted 38 HR over two levels including the majors. Supporting this output, Hiura posted an exit velocity on FB/LD of 95.1 MPH, an exit velocity which exceeds that of Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger (and was just behind Ronald Acuna in this metric). In addition, Hiura posted a 13.9% barrel rate with a launch angle of 16 degrees, similar to the launch angles of Ozzie Albies and Eddie Rosario. Hiura also, impressively, had an overall 50% hard-hit rate which was good enough for the top three percent in all of baseball, further lending support to the veracity of his power output.

As far as stolen base potential, much of it will depend on where the Brewers plan to bat Hiura in the order. At this point, Hiura is projected to bat cleanup for Milwaukee which will likely limit his SB output. Hiura’s sprint speed in 2019 was roughly league average, which likely means his nine stolen bases were about where he should have been in his 84 games played with the Brewers in 2019. Taking into consideration a middle-of-the-order spot, it is likely Hiura will land somewhere between 10-15 SBs over the course of a full season’s worth of games.

The 2020 Brewers lineup takes a hit from the 2019 version that posted the ninth-highest on-base percentage in all of baseball. With Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames and Mike Moustakas no longer with the club, the Brewers lineup is much less potent despite having acquired Avisail Garcia and Justin Smoak. Hiura is projected to hit cleanup behind Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich and in front of a Ryan Braun/Smoak platoon. As such, the cleanup spot should, arguably, still lead to solid RBI opportunities and protection for Hiura despite the Brewers’ personnel losses. That said, it cannot be understated that the overall production of the lineup is sure to decline with the loss of Grandal, Moustakas, and Thames and this could impact Hiura’s overall run totals.

Breakout Season Legitimate?

To say Marte broke out in 2019 is an understatement. In 2019, Marte put up a .329 batting average to go with 32 home runs, 92 RBI and 97 runs. The obvious question is whether this was a legitimate, sustainable breakout justifying a 43 ADP in 2020 drafts.

Throughout his time in the minors, and in his first four years in the majors, Marte was considered more of a contact hitter. He never boasted such lofty power numbers. Prior to 2019, although his career-best in home runs was 14, he was projected as a sleeper heading into drafts due to growth in various metrics over the course of his career.

Looking closely at Marte’s 2019 metrics, which took yet another step forward, we see that his power breakout was largely supported. Specifically, in 2019, Marte had a 9.3% barrel rate, a massive increase from his 2018 barrel rate of 5.0%, an overall 89.8 mph exit velocity, and a 40.0% hard-hit rate. Additionally, Marte’s exit velocity on FB/LD was 93.5 MPH, similar to that of Carlos Santana and Anthony Rendon. Marte’s launch angle was also 11.5 degrees, roughly six degrees greater than his launch angle in 2018.

In terms of Marte’s contact skills and average, they remained solid. Marte was right at league average in O-Swing% and he boasted a SwStr% of 7.8%, which was much better than the league average. His batting average was firmly supported by a .299 xBA, good enough for top-six percent of the league. In addition, Marte showed consistency all season after getting off to a slow start in April. He hit .311 before the All-Star break and .358 after the All-Star break. His splits were also, essentially, consistent against both lefties and righties and both at home and on the road in 2019.

Marte appears to be locked into the top-third of the Diamondbacks lineup once again for this upcoming season. The Diamondbacks have a much-improved lineup with the additions of Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun. This should lead to greater RBI opportunities with Marte hitting behind Starling Marte, who should hit leadoff. Marte also has valuable eligibility as an outfielder in most formats, which enhances his fantasy value for purposes of roster management.

On the downside, because Marte will be hitting behind Starling Marte it will reduce what modest stolen base potential he already has. In addition, Marte suffered a stress reaction in his back last September which cut his season short. As such, Marte comes into 2020 with a question as to how well that stress reaction has healed and whether it will sap any gains he made in hard-hit rates and exit velocity. Additionally, while supported by the metrics, expecting Marte to increase home run totals off of career-best numbers is not wise. It is likely that, despite the supporting metrics, some of those gains in HR will be returned.

Verdict

Overall, both players bring solid value to the second base position and are absolutely worth the ADP they currently have. You will not go wrong taking either player off the board around pick 43. That said, although Hiura will likely see some average regression, the potential for even more power production puts him in rarified air at second base. Also, despite some regression, he will still hit for an average that won’t wreck your ratios, based on his minor league and elevated BABIP history. He will also drive in a large number of RBI behind Cain and Yelich.

With regard to Marte, while he is also in line for an excellent season, we have likely seen his best in 2019 and should not expect further gains in HR, despite his supporting metrics. Marte’s HR numbers will slightly decline. Unless you want a safe average floor to go with 20-25 HR at or around pick 43, Hiura would be the better option. Hiura’s HR and RBI ceiling could be elite in 2020 despite the fact he may hit for a lower average than Marte. Accordingly, the upside is much greater for Hiura in 2020.

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