PGA DFS Vegas Report - Players Championship (Premium Content)

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Welcome back to the PGA DFS Vegas Report. I just wanted to take a quick second to thank everyone who has signed up for the premium section here at RotoBaller. We have a great team in place with Joe Nicely, Josh Bennett, Tommy Bell and myself, and if you haven't had a chance to yet, be sure to check out the lineup optimizer and research station that can be found in the premium tools section.

While I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a DFS or betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter. There are a lot of golfers that barely miss out on my final card released here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye.

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2020 Players Championship

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

TPC Sawgrass

7,189 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda

TPC Sawgrass has always been a tough nut to crack. Typically walking a fine line between challenging and sadistic, the event played as a shootout last season in its first showing during March since 2006. Conditions will always be the ultimate decider of how difficult of a week we are going to get, but it does seem likely that the two-month move will help golfers receive a venue that is more well-equipped to find success.

In my opinion, TPC Sawgrass was initially created to be played in colder weather conditions. As we approach summer in May, dormant Bermuda grass can quickly turn the venue into a firm/fast test that isn't conducive for the shot shapes needed on holes. Before last season, one of the only ways to stop your ball on the putting surface would be to hit a run-up shot. Unfortunately, many holes at the facility aren't designed to be played in that fashion, causing GIR percentage to plummet from certain angles. However, all of that changes in March. The overseeded rye is favorable to how the property is set up and allows players to fly it and stop it with greater ease.

With all that being said, scoring will still be tricky at times. TPC Sawgrass features some of the smallest putting surfaces on tour, and because of the restricted space, strokes gained around the green will be amplified. The 17 water hazards and 88 bunkers provide trouble at every turn, but it is worth noting that the rough is not very penal. My biggest piece of advice would be to take some of the statistical breakdowns you read this week with a grain of salt. We don't have a significant sample size of the disparity between May to March, and there should be some skepticism when it comes to what is expected.

Players Championship

#1 - Bryson DeChambeau - 22/1

DraftKings Price: $9,100 / FanDuel: Price $11,300

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 18.1%

I find the betting board we were given this week to be a little disappointing. The Players Championship is one of the biggest tournaments of the season, and casinos released prices that equal roughly 150% in implied probability. To break that down into terms that would be a little easier to understand, correct odds for an outcome will always range somewhere between zero to 100 percent. You get to the outer end of each spectrum when the game is finally complete, but you will never be able to exceed 100 percent for obvious reasons.

Sports betting is slightly different. If casinos released wagers that totaled 100 percent win probability when taking into account all possible sides, places wouldn't be able to make money, and they would run a considerable risk of getting put out of business rather quickly. It is the reason why we see a vig of roughly 10 cents applied to start every matchup bet, and it becomes greatly enhanced when dealing inside the futures market. Some books take more of the hold than others, but I'd say 125% is typically standard for some of the more significant golf tournaments of the year. You will see that number deviate from place-to-place, but it helps explain why most losing gamblers are taking inferior prices that can't achieve long-term success.

Frankly, there is a lot of give and take when it comes to this concept. The top of the board typically gets the majority of the mispricing since casinos know that is where the public is most likely to place their bets. Sometimes we can receive an uptick deeper on the list if we do our research properly, and there is always a chance that our calculations don't coincide directly with what the books are releasing either, which can allow value to be found anywhere. Unfortunately, those opportunities begin to decrease significantly if too much of the hold is being taken upfront. All of that is fine and well since places need to protect themselves and make a profit long-term, but we run into massive issues as knowledgable gamblers if we are given betting boards that are nearly impossible to beat for a profit over any duration of time. It is unfortunate that route was taken this weekend because it wasn't needed with the amount of volume that comes from a tournament such as this, and we can chalk it up to greed.

All of that puts us in a slightly precarious spot this weekend. I do think that Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas received a decent percentage of the increased win probability that they accounted for in their totals, but that 25/1 to 40/1 range got somewhat short-changed themselves by being clumped together. On the surface, I don't believe we were given great value on too many selections in this area. Tommy Fleetwood, Webb Simpson, Sungjae Im, Patrick Reed and Rickie Fowler look extremely short by my math, and I was hoping to acquire a better price on golfers such as Adam Scott or Hideki Matsuyama. I am not surprised either man was rated where they were, but it does take them off the board for me based on nothing other than poor win equity.

The first player that is extremely close to being considered value is Bryson DeChambeau. His opening price of 25/1 was nearly spot-on for where I had him in the market, but the three-point move has decreased him to about a half percent overvalued at his new 22/1 price. I typically will bypass anything that doesn't yield a number where I can expect profit over time, but I can make a pretty rationale case for why my initial estimates might have underestimated DeChambeau.

I run my models to incorporate a longer duration of time than most. I'm not a massive fan of overvaluing the present because a lot of the current form is already baked into the prices we receive, and it defeats the purpose in attempting to locate an edge. With all that being said, I am not sure if books are even properly evaluating where Bryson's game is at right now. The American bulked up during the off-season, adding extra muscle to his frame, and the results have been intoxicating from a driving standpoint. From January 1st to now, DeChambeau is recording the second-best season in PGA Tour history off the tee and gained more than two strokes in three different rounds at last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

DeChambeau is going to be one of the most popular wagers this weekend, and I never love going down that road, but the casinos adjusting his price to account for the action they are receiving is positive that they are taking their exposure to him seriously.

#2 - Dustin Johnson - 28/1

DraftKings Price: $10,000 / FanDuel: Price $11,800

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 10.0%

Just because we receive a price on a player that we aren't accustomed to seeing, it doesn't mean that golfer is value. It oftentimes can be a trap set by the casinos to look like a fancy steak on the table and ends up being nothing more than a bait and switch TV dinner that steals our money.

Nevertheless, there are situations where sportsbooks make mistakes. They may be errors that are done on purpose because the public won't be interested at a lower price, so they try to drive a little buyback by increasing the value of the wager, but it also can be nothing more than an oversight on their part. I don't want to jump to conclusions for which avenue I believe this circumstance falls under, but I am more than willing to grab what I believe to be an incredibly generous price on Dustin Johnson.

Johnson is in the midst of one of his worst statistical seasons since turning pro in 2008, but it isn't all doom and gloom for the fifth-ranked player in the world. The American has gained strokes off the tee in his previous six events, around the green in his last two and has shown improvement with his irons as of late. For whatever reason, Johnson's ability to hit shots from inside 125 yards has become suspect, but he should be able to avoid that distance at TPC Sawgrass.

There are certain players on the tour where I don't need to see weekly progression that is obvious to all involved to become interested, and Johnson is one of those golfers. He is more than capable of winning anytime he enters an event, and the 35-year-old has finished inside the top-10 in three of his five worldwide starts this year. The lazy narrative is to point to his performance in Mexico or his Sunday implosion at Pebble Beach as to why something is still wrong with the big-hitter from South Carolina, but he was in contention to win the Pro-Am before his meltdown and was undone in Mexico by losing over six strokes on the greens. If we don't get either of those two outcomes, we are looking at a golfer that could be as low as 10/1 in this field. TPC Sawgrass has the potential to turn into a bomb and gouge show if the winds remain calm, and there aren't many in the world that play that style of golf better.

#3 - Xander Schauffele - 30/1

DraftKings Price: $9,400 / FanDuel Price: $11,200

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 11.7%

I'm going to recycle some of the words I used this week while writing about Xander Schauffele in my DraftKings article here at Rotoballer. I was going to restructure it and word it differently, but I believe the way it was written initially best helps to get the point across for why Schauffele is incredibly underrated entering the Players Championship.

I took a deeper dive into Xander Schauffele this week and looked at what exactly has transpired for him in his past few events. From a statistical standpoint, Schauffele always looks impressive. He hits a ton of greens in regulation, and you aren't going to find too many weaknesses in his game. However, there was an interesting trend that kept popping up over and over again. If we exclude Schauffele's victory at the 2019 Tournament of Champions - an event that saw him gain the fifth most strokes putting I could find for him on record - most of his success tends to come at facilities that feature smaller green complexes.

I believe part of the reason behind that is due to Schauffele's more conservative nature on his approach shots. Yes, the 12th-ranked player in the world gains strokes with his irons consistently all over the globe, but the majority of that total comes from hitting a high percentage of greens in regulation. We then see Schauffele tend to lose strokes with his putter because of nothing more than the sheer length he is leaving himself on his first putt. Birdie opportunities are too far for us to expect him to make them with any regularity, which increases his chances of three-putting on larger surfaces. But a venue like TPC Sawgrass alleviates those concerns. When Schauffele takes a more conservative route at a site with smaller greens, his birdie putts tend to come from a shorter distance than he is accustomed to having. I don't have a great answer for why he has struggled recently around the greens, but his 0.769 strokes gained on Sunday at the API will hopefully get him back on track.

I've heard it expressed multiple times so far this season that Schauffele is a one-hit-wonder from last year and doesn't deserve to be in this same range as his counterparts, but we are once again dealing with sloppy information. There is no arguing that the 26-year-old doesn't look quite as crisp as we became accustomed to seeing in 2019, but when did four straight top-24 finishes and a second-place showing at the Tournament of Champions become less than ideal? A venue such as TPC Sawgrass requires golfers to provide a complete game to find success, and you aren't going to find many who are more sound with what they render from an ability standpoint.

#4 - Paul Casey - 60/1

DraftKings Price: $8,200 / FanDuel Price: $10,100

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 9.5%

When I was speaking earlier about the 25/1 to 40/1 range being clumped together, it did provide a boost to players behind them in the market. When we look at a golfer like Patrick Reed, he enters the week as the 16th highest priced option on DraftKings at $8,500 and is 33/1 in the betting market. Nothing sticks out as being overly outlandish from either of those two numbers, but it does become jarring when we drop down just $300 to Paul Casey. The Englishman's $8,200 price tag places him 19th overall for DFS purposes, but his futures price soars to 60/1.

Some of that explanation could be chalked up to there being a mispricing on DraftKings; however, I believe we can alleviate those concerns when looking at the distribution we have been given in the futures market. Eleven golfers enter the week rated somewhere between 22/1 to 35/1, but only six come in between 40/1 to 55/1. What we can derive from that analysis is that casinos placed the bulk of their exposure prevention towards the top of the board, allowing a handful of names to slip through the cracks. None of that is abnormally different than most weeks, although the precipitous decline from one range to the next does show books were forced to find a cutoff point where they would be forced to increase outright prices. Placing additional golfers inside the 40/1 to 55/1 range would only further enhance their hold percentage, and it reaches a point where they are creating a board that isn't even worth investing within if they go that route.

Casey has a few weaknesses that are apparent on the surface. Putting will always be a problem for the 24th-ranked player in the world, and his lack of an around the green game does provide extra concern if he finds trouble at TPC Sawgrass. You are never going to receive a perfect painting when handicapping this far down the board, but Casey does bring to the table his fair share of lavish brushes. Ranked inside the top-15 of my model both off the tee and with his irons, the 42-year-old adds to his impressive statistical resume by also placing inside the top-10 in ball striking, par-five birdie or better percentage and greens in regulation. The Englishman has been out of sight and out of mind for the past few weeks, and what should have been a 45/1 outright number has ballooned up to 60/1 after the likes of Tyrrell Hatton and Marc Leishman slotted their names into that section after a good showing at the API.

#5 - Tony Finau - 60/1 

DraftKings Price: $8,100 / FanDuel Price: $10,200

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 7.7%

There is no getting around the fact that Tony Finau was an unmitigated disaster last weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 16th-ranked player in the world found a way to be horrendous with every aspect of his game, and it showed with one of the worst 36 hole stretches I have ever experienced from the American.

Perhaps that outcome should have been expected with Finau finding it difficult to locate his footing early in 2020 from a statistical standpoint, but if I am going to make a case that TPC Sawgrass has a chance to play as a bombers course because of the move from May to March, it would be nonsensical not to consider the 30-year-old.

It is tough to determine what has been wrong with Finau on par-fives as of late, but this week's venue has the potential to lessen the importance of driving accuracy if the big-hitter can miss to the correct side of the fairway, and he appears to check the boxes for most of the vital statistics you would be hoping to find in a potential longshot. Finau is 25/1 to win this year's Masters in one month but nearly 2.5 times the price at the Players Championship. Sure, we could blame course fit as one of the proponents behind this difference, but I am willing to stand behind my belief with how the venue will play, which begins to gravitate right into Finau's wheelhouse. A mere made cut last weekend would most likely have placed the Utah native at 35/1 this weekend, and while there are reasons to be concerned, I am willing to let bygones be bygones and remove his previous performance from my mental Rolodex.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Off The Tee 15%
• Par-Four Average 15%
• Ball Striking 15%
• Par-Five BOB% 12.5%
• Strokes Gained Approach 12.5%
• Proximity From 125-175 Yards 10%
• Proximity From 175 Yards+ 10%
• Strokes Gained Around The Green 10%

Head-to-Head Play of the Week

We are going to take one more week before coming back to our premium head-to-head selection. I am still in the midst of reconfiguring my betting model, and the Players Championship typically has more volatility than I would care to see.

2020 Head-to-Head Record (9-4-1)

+5.09 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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