Infielders Ready to Break Out Late

Finding value is crucial on draft day and finding just one or two players later in drafts that provide better numbers than projected can give you a significant edge on the competition as you bid for fantasy glory.

All too often, we look for the new shiny object in drafts thinking they’ll come up to the Majors and dominant straight away. While some do, we need to remember that development isn’t linear and while some players will be stars at 22, some players take a bit longer to show their real talents.

That’s where we will be focusing our attention now, looking at three infielders who are aged between 26-29 years old and are set to break out after having a so-so career to date.

Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL)

26 years old

I was surprised that Swanson was 26 years old, thinking he was still around 23. After being drafted No. 1 overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2015, Swanson made his Major League debut a year later for the Atlanta Braves following a trade that saw Shelby Miller move to the desert. But we won’t open old wounds for Diamondbacks fans here. Swanson had already established himself as the Braves starting shortstop for the 2017 season and has stuck there since.

Swanson currently has an ADP of ~244 in NFBC drafts and is the 24^th shortstop being drafted. It’s widely considered that shortstop is the deepest position in fantasy this year but 23 shortstops going before Swanson still seem excessive.

If we take a look at his numbers the last three seasons, we can see the growth in his hitting and remember, he’s yet to reach his peak years which are generally considered being 26-28 years of age.

For 2020, Swanson is currently projected for 24 homers, 11 stolen bases, 81 RBI, 83 runs and with a .262/.327/.482 slash line. That falls in line with how he’s improved year on year but is there room for even more growth in 2020? A look at his expected statistics last season, courtesy of Statcast, suggests that he could have had a better year in 2019 than he did so 2020’s projections are about what he should have had last year if luck wasn’t against him.

If you consider that Swanson’s xWOBA of .347 ranked him tied-74^th among the 250 qualified hitters on Statcast last season and was higher than Nolan Arenado (.344), Gleyber Torres (.341) and Trevor Story (.339), it paints a picture of someone being undervalued.

A further look at Swanson's Statcast profile for last year further corroborates the notion that he should be going earlier in drafts.

It shows us that Swanson ranked around the top third in hitting but the sprint speed jumps out. We should all know by now that speed doesn’t translate into stolen bases, but being in the 88^th percentile should equate to more than the ten steals he’s had the last two years. In a shortened season, managers might throw a bit more caution to the wind and with 445 Major League games under his belt, Swanson should have developed enough of a read on pitchers to maximize that speed on the basepaths.

Heading into future drafts for the 2020 season, you will see people panic after missing out on the top-tier of shortstops and feeling obligated to take one earlier than necessary. Swanson is currently going as a late middle-infielder but should take a big enough step forward in his age 26 season to warrant being your team’s shortstop if you don’t draft one in the early rounds.

Luke Voit (1B, NYY)

29 years old

Voit didn’t make his Major League debut until 2017 as a 26-year-old. The New York Yankees saw enough in him to make a trade and instill Voit as a regular feature of their lineup. That faith was repaid with 14 homers in 39 games. Last year, Voit started the season as the Yankees first choice first baseman but injuries limited Voit to 118 games.

Voit still managed to hit 21 homers and put up a .263/.378/.464 slash line while predominately hitting second or third in the order. Hitting second or third in any lineup holds value but even more so in the Yankees order. Yet his NFBC ADP of ~192 seems to disregard much of what he’s capable of.

I’ve seen some people saying Voit’s an injury risk, but last year’s two IL-stints were linked (sports hernia and abdominal strain) and he hadn’t hit the IL as a Major Leaguer before last year. Granted, an injury in 2020 will have a greater fantasy impact than before as a minimal 10-day stint is now over 10% of the season rather than 5%, but there’s nothing to suggest Voit will be a higher risk than the norm.

So why should Voit suddenly breakout out as a 29-year-old? Firstly, look at his Statcast profile.

What immediately hits you is that Barrel% being in the 91^st percentile. Voit ranked 22^nd in Barrels per Batted Ball Event (Brls/BBE%) with 13.2%. If you don’t know, that means Voit barrelled the ball in 13.2% of his plate appearances which ended in a batted ball event. In the simplest terms; when put bat on ball, it came off the sweet spot more often than all but 21 other hitters. His whiff rate being in the 4^th percentile does mean he swings and misses far too often and his 27.8% strikeout rate is testament to that.

Voit’s xwOBA is also impressive being in the 86^th percentile. If you don’t know what wOBA is, it measures the quality of contact and incorporates factors such as walks and strikeouts. Voit’s .365 xwOBA (expected wOBA) ranked him 37^th overall last year. These two factors alone tell us that Voit puts good wood on the ball.

The other striking statistic from Voit’s 2019 is his walk-rate which was 13.9% last year. That was 15^th best in the Major League for all hitters with 400+ plate appearances. We’re now looking at a hitter who gets on base, hits it well when making contact and hits in a prime spot in arguably the most potent offense in the league.

There are 17 first base eligible hitters going ahead of Voit in NFBC drafts, yet Voit is primed to put up top-12 numbers at the position. Even in an 82 game season, Voit looks like a breakout ready to happen and looks like a light version of Joey Gallo. In standard leagues, he can be drafted with complete confidence earlier than his current ADP and in leagues counting walks has even more value.

Christian Walker (1B, ARI)

29 years old

Similarly to Voit, Walker flashed his potential last year as the Diamondbacks everyday first baseman following Paul Goldschmidt’s departure. In 152 games, Walker hit 29 homers with a .259/.348/.476 slash line. And similarly to Swanson, Walker was a little unlucky last season with his expected stats better than his actual numbers.

Already impressive power numbers, they could have been even better. It’s still a little early to know the impact of the Arizona Humidor but it’s not something which is sapping all the power out of hitters so there shouldn’t be any concern with that. If we also look at Walker’s Statcast profile, you may wonder why he’s going later than Voit in drafts with an ADP ~197 in NFBC drafts.

Although he had a lower walk-rate than Voit, his 11.1% BB% was still 44^th best among the 207 hitters who had at least 400 plate appearances last year. You can see Walker’s whiff and strikeout rates are still higher than you’d like them to be but neither is prohibitive in rostering Walker.

His hard-hit rate of 48.4% was 16^th overall last year according to Statcast, higher than more notable infielders such as Jose Abreu (48.2%), Rafael Devers (47.5%) and Josh Bell (47.1%). His Barrel-rate was also in the top-tier, with 8.1% of plate appearances ending in a barrelled ball, 35^th in baseball.

In a full season, I would expect Walker to top the 30 home run mark and even get up near 40 given his batted ball profile. He should be at his peak in terms of power now aged 29 and the Diamondbacks have strengthened their lineup this year after acquiring Starling Marte (and to a lesser extent Cole Kalhoun) and has the advantage of hitting in the clean-up spot boosting those counting stats. Walker is a great later round option at first base as well as or instead of Voit. Walker also managed to get eight steals last year so he has the capability of being a 5-category contributor primed to put up numbers much better than his ADP suggests he will.

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