First Impressions - MLB Opening Day 2020 Fantasy Notes

I can't remember being more excited for an Opening Day than this one. Although Thursday, July 23 was technically the first day of the 2020 MLB season, Friday is when 28 of the 32 teams took the field for the first time for regular-season play. Never have I been happier to fire up MLB Extra Innings and soak up all the baseball I could get.

Of course, as a fantasy analyst, it goes beyond simply enjoying the games. I spent the better part of the evening scanning the lineups, monitoring pitch counts, and evaluating the box scores once all was said and done. It is ultimately just one of 60 games for each team, but some players made distinct first impressions and some managerial decisions were eyebrow-raising, to say the least. As a result, I feel compelled to share my thoughts on the first full slate of MLB action to juxtapose our collective preseason expectations with the current reality.

Before getting to the games, I have to give a nod to Ellis Canady and his Daily Slivers of the Fantasy Soapbox series, which you can find here on RotoBaller. Ellis provides a similar daily roundup of the most relevant fantasy notes each and every day. Except his is much funnier.

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Mets 1, Braves 0

• Those of us who knocked Freddie Freeman down a peg in preseason rankings are now regretting it. He didn't pick up a hit (hey, it was Jacob deGrom on the hill) but he looked just fine hitting out of the three-hole behind Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies.
• Yoenis Cespedes lives! He was definitely worth a late-round flier and is going to be a popular waiver add in week one. Get ahead of the game and make your claim now.
• It appears Edwin Diaz is in fact the closer for the Metropolitans. Any undue concern was largely overblown. Seth Lugo is still worth owning - relief win #1 is already in the books.
• If you were expecting Tyler Flowers or Travis d'Arnaud behind the plate, the sight of rookie Alex Jackson was a surprise. Both players showed symptoms but didn't test positive for COVID, according to announcers. That should mean they join the team after this series, so don't make too much of it. Clearly this is meant for the NL-only crowd.

 

Reds 7, Tigers 1

• Matthew Boyd wasn't particularly sharp in his season debut, giving up four runs in five innings with two strikeouts compared to two walks. This was one of the tougher offenses on the schedule and the toughest ballpark he'll pitch in this year. Keep the faith (for now).
• The opposite goes for C.J. Cron. I'm sure he'll get his share of homers but this game was in Great American Ballpark and he'll play half his games in cavernous Comerica. Just saying - keep expectations in check. The Tigers weren't able to muster a single run other than his solo shot.
• Nick Senzel got the start in center field! But he went 0-for-4 with a K and stranded three runners... He's a player to stash, but not start just yet.

 

Marlins 5, Phillies 2

• Earning the nod as Miami's Opening Day starter didn't do much for Sandy Alcantara's fantasy value. We had him ranked 283 overall and his NFBC ADP was 267 in July. He struck out just 18% of batters last year and wasn't projected for much more. All he did in his first start was strikeout seven Phillies, including Bryce Harper twice. He has elite velocity and four pitches he can use effectively. He just 59% rostered right now - maybe he deserves more attention.
• Jorge Alfaro was a last-minute scratch, being placed on the IL for undisclosed reasons. Francisco Cervelli won't provide much power but if you're in a two-catcher league (why???) then he's worth a look.
• It was a little disappointing to see Scott Kingery batting eighth. His multi-position eligibility and spot in a potent lineup made him a nice asset in fantasy drafts but his counting stats might be lacking if he doesn't move up.
• It's easy to overreact to a home run in game one of the season but Jesus Aguilar in Miami is going to be a match made in heaven. Milwaukee jerked him in and out of the lineup last year and his peripherals weren't as bad as you'd think. Buy/add now.
• Jon Berti wasn't in the lineup but second baseman Isan Diaz went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and Jonathan Villar showed off his stone glove by muffing a routine fly ball in center field. He should see plenty of at-bats as the season progresses to replace Diaz's bat if he keeps struggling or to keep Villar off the field.

 

Blue Jays 6, Rays 4

• I said Yoshi Tsutsugo would be a thing this year. Two-run shot in his MLB debut - it's happening already. He was batting third and playing third, which both work in his favor.
• Charlie Morton wasn't the only ace to get knocked around today. The Jays have a potent offense and this is just one game, so don't make too much of it.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. moving to first base knocked Rowdy Tellez out of a position but not out of the lineup. He could be the regular DH, as he was in this game, so there's still hope for a breakout...

 

Twins 10, White Sox 5

• Jose Berrios and Lucas Giolito combined for 12 ER allowed before the fifth inning. Say bye to those ratios.
• It feels like I'm in the minority by believing that Tim Anderson can replicate last year's success. He went 2-for-5 with a pair of runs scored and bats atop a dangerous lineup. What's not to like?
• Revised ATC projections for a 60-game season had Luis Arraez winning the batting title. He started the season with two hits, two RBI, and a run scored. Just sayin'....

 

Cubs 3, Brewers 0

• Kyle Hendricks. That's all you need to know about this game. We thought complete game shutouts were a thing of the past, but he dished a gem against a potent offense, striking out nine without a single walk. Bravo.
• Brandon Woodruff didn't have a bad outing, lasting five innings and allowing two runs on four hits. Corey Knebel looked to be back in form, tossing a scoreless inning.

 

Cardinals 5, Pirates 4

• Kwang Hyun Kim indeed earned the save on Opening Day but looked shaky in the process, giving up two runs and nearly blowing it. Ryan Helsley might be the better bet but don't forget that Giovanny Gallegos is likely to return soon.
• Kolten Wong is the starting second baseman and leadoff hitter for St. Louis. He hit .285 and stole 24 bases last year. He's only 48% owned in fantasy. There's a disconnect here.
• I feel like Pittsburgh's offense will wind up being greater than the sum of its parts. In other words, they won't be the worst but there just aren't many individual players worth your time in fantasy outside of Josh Bell and Bryan Reynolds.

 

Red Sox 13, Orioles 2

• Are we trusting Nathan Eovaldi on the strength of this performance? Six innings of one-run ball is solid, but it was the Orioles. It'll take more than that before I add him anywhere.
• Jose Peraza's four-hit game will get attention but Kevin Pillar drove in three and could wind up being the stronger fantasy pickup.
• Chris Davis was hitless in three at-bats. The streak begins anew...

 

Rangers 1, Rockies 0

• It was all-or-nothing for starting pitchers and Lance Lynn was no exception. He wasn't super-efficient, throwing 108 pitches in six innings, but he didn't allow a run and struck out nine. He may never be considered a frontline fantasy starter, but he's pretty damn close.
• David Dahl was the only Colorado player to register a hit, collecting four total bases on the night. Maybe he likes the leadoff spot after all.
• If you're in a Holds or SV+HLD league, take a hard look at Jesse Chavez. He drew the seventh inning in this win, but could be next in line for saves if Jose Leclerc goes down.

 

Indians 2, Royals 0

• If you waited to get an ace and wound up with Shane Bieber as your SP1, congrats. He won't strike out 14 batters every game, mainly because he won't face the Royals every time out, but it's a helluva start to the year. FWIW, he should face KC twice more this year.
• Not to take anything away from Bieber, but he wasn't the only one inducing whiffs. The Royals struck out 18 times on the night, with Nick Wittgren and Brad Hand each inducing two in an inning of work. With players like Adalberto Mondesi, Jorge Soler, and Ryan McBroom in the heart of the order, there could be plenty more games like this in store.

 

Padres, 7, Diamondbacks 2

• Eric Hosmer is the early RBI leader with six and Tommy Pham is the SB leader with two. Enjoy it while it lasts. Hosmer is typically a fast starter but he won't provide enough power to be a regular starter in fantasy.
• If I was the betting type, I'd have put money on Chris Paddack to win the Cy Young award. He was pulled after six frames and 81 pitches, but that might be the norm this season for starting pitchers.
• Jurickson Profar batting cleanup? Not sure if that will last but regardless, he could post nice R+RBI totals in this lineup wherever he hits.

 

Astros 8, Mariners 2

• The time off definitely helped Justin Verlander get healthy. He looked sharp as ever, striking out seven while giving up one walk and three hits in six IP. Of course, two of those hits were long balls. His 1.45 HR/9 was 13th-highest in the majors last year. It doesn't look like that number will go down if this is what happens against the worst team he'll face all year.
• Kyle Lewis paid off for those who made him a trendy preseason sleeper with an Opening Day homer. He could clear a double-digit HR total easily. Just expect 20 RBI along with it.
• Jose Marmolejos had his contract purchased a day ago and started in LF rather than Jake Fraley, Braden Bishop, or Jarred Kelenic. He went hitless in three AB with two strikeouts, so let's see how long that lasts.

 

Dodgers 9, Giants 1

• It would have been nice to know Clayton Kershaw was going on IL before all my drafts so I could have taken Ross Stripling. Seven innings of one-run ball with 7 K and 0 BB is impressive, even if it was against the Giants.
• Don't worry about being that guy who overreacts to a small sample size. If Kike Hernandez is the regular second baseman for the Dodgers and bats fifth, he has to be owned.

 

Athletics 7, Angels 3

• Andrew Heaney pitched well (1 ER, 2 H, 6 K, 0 BB in 4.2 IP) but was given a quick hook after just 67 pitches thrown. If he stays healthy, he can be effective but he may not pitch deep enough into games to earn many victories.
• Liam Hendriks has a blown save after his first outing of 2020. The A's have had a different save leader for six straight seasons. Will it be seven?

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