RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Brooks Koepka looked healthy all of a sudden, and Justin Thomas avoided bogey after bogey despite misplayed shots on Sunday to claim his 13th career PGA Tour victory. It was quite the bunched, entertaining finish on Sunday, and it definitely got excited for another strong field with the PGA Championship coming up this week. The first major of the year sounds like it will play pretty difficultly, so we'll see which studs can make the best of the long ocean breeze, long Par 4s, and thick rough in San Fran.
Using my PGA DFS and betting research for both DraftKings and handicapping, I'll look into some of the Monkey Knife Fight prop bets for the PGA Championship to see which posted numbers make sense to take a stand on. You can use this advice to place your own wagers on MKF. As always, send any questions, comments, or banter my way on Twitter. You can find me @BellRoto.
Now let's get to some PGA Monkey Knife Fight prop bet picks for the PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park!
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Pick 1: More or Less (4x Prize)
Birdies or Better: Bryson DeChambeau MORE than 17.5
Bryson doesn't need Par 5s to rack up birdies in a hurry. The issue for him this week will be if he can keep his drives consistent enough to avoid bogeys from missed fairways. However, when he does hit fairways, his length will give him a huge advantage, allowing him to hit shorter irons into these greens and get better looks at birdie. 18 Birdies or Better is definitely doable for DeChambeau.
Birdies or Better: Jon Rahm MORE than 17.5
Rahm seems to excel in tougher settings, especially when long, accurate drives reward players handsomely. Like he did at Memorial, Rahm should be able to hit a lot of fairways, resulting in many greens in regulation. The blow-up spot is always possible with Rahmbo, but racking up birdies should not be an issue.
Birdies or Better: Webb Simpson LESS than 17.5
Time and time again, we see Simpson succeed at short, plodding tracks that require accurate drives to set up wedge shots into greens. However, TPC Harding Park will play a little longer than that, and Simpson won't have four Par 5s to exploit this week. I'll take the under on this one and bet against Webb's long irons again this week.
Pick 2: Rapidfire (4x Prize)
More Birdies or Better: Justin Thomas over Brooks Koepka (+1.5)
Despite his run at the title last week in Memphis, I'm not 100% sold that Koepka is all of a sudden back to his old self. He admitted to having knee issues despite his recovery from surgery prior to the return from the Covid layoff, and he's looked extremely inconsistent leading into the WGC event. Sure, he's a guy who always shows up for majors, but I am going to need to see it again if I'm going to buy in.
Meanwhile, JT's game is sharp right now. He's not the kind of player who will be complacent after a win last week, and this track sets up very well for his long, straight game with short game ability to boot. I think Thomas is in contention again this week, and I can't bring myself to believe that Koepka can do it again unless that knee is all of a sudden fine.
More Birdies or Better: Bryson DeChambeau (+0.5) over Patrick Cantlay
While Cantlay may beat Bryson on the leaderboard this week, I think DeChambeau will have shorter putts throughout the week when he does hit greens in regulation, hopefully leading to a few more birdies. Cantlay is a consistent ball-striker, but he doesn't have Bryson's length off the tee or the same ability to get scorching hot in a second. It's close, but I'll take DeChambeau and the half-Birdie.
More Birdies or Better: Jon Rahm over Webb Simpson (+0.5)
See analysis above...
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