Category: PGA Golf DFS DraftKings

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In his 10th season on the PGA Tour, Jason Kokrak was finally able to hit the lottery out in Las Vegas for his first career title. The 35-year-old entered the week as one of just a few players that had played Shadow Creek in the past, and it showed to be an advantage that helped propel him over the finish line.

Kokrak provided a complete effort that saw him rank eighth in strokes gained tee to green, but it was his astronomical 10.293 shots gained putting over the field that helped him put up a tournament-leading 26 birdies. The victory qualifies Kokrak for the 2021 Masters, and we will also see him tee it up at Augusta in November after punching his ticket earlier in the year.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - ZOZO Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

ZOZO Championship - PGA DFS Overview

Sherwood Country Club

7,006 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

The Chevron World Challenge, now known as the Hero World Challenge, took place at Sherwood Country Club from 2000 to 2013. The event consists of only 18 players, so it is difficult to gauge too much from the past, but we have seen the average winning score hover right around 16-under par. With a field that will have nearly five times the number of participants this go-around, I'd anticipate we see that number boosted, but it is important to realize what you see is not exactly what you get in the yardage.

Playing as a par-72 that measures under 7,100 yards, added distance won't do as much as it might seem like on paper. Don't get me wrong, proper accuracy with distance is never a negative, but this is a ball-strikers venue that will reward second shots. It is one of the reasons why we have seen Tiger Woods win here five times in the past, and players will be tested with approach shots from various ranges.

Bunkers come into play both off the tee and around the greens, and we will get a unique situation with their being five par-five holes for the week. There are two additional par-fours that play under 400 yards, and we will see most of the scoring come during this seven-hole stretch.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Sherwood	Tour Average
Driving Distance	N/A	281
Driving Accuracy	N/A	62%
GIR Percentage	N/A	65%
Scrambling Percentage	N/A	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	N/A	0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Xander Schauffele at 11/1 and Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas at 12/1.

 

Key Stats

• Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 20%
• Ball Striking 20%
• Weighted Proximity 15%
• Strokes Gained Approach 15%
• Bent Putting + Scramble (Weighted) 10%
• Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance (Weighted) 10%
• Sand Save Percentage 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Xander Schauffele ($11,200)

It was somewhat jarring to see Xander Schauffele listed as the man to beat on DraftKings, but it isn't easy to make that strong of a case against it being factual. The 26-year-old has finished inside the top-five in his last three events and hasn't ended a tournament worse than 25th since the Travelers Championship in June. I believe we get a slight decline this week in ownership because of him being listed at the top of the board, and I don't mind buying back in at $11,200 when a lot of the industry is still frustrated with Xander being unable to close out events.

Jon Rahm ($11,000)

We are going to have to use ownership, stats and other factors to decipher where we want to go for the week between our big four golfers. All have upside for victory and shouldn't be entirely discounted, but that doesn't provide the answer to what is proper. If you are playing a plethora of lineups, I don't mind spreading out my exposure a little more than usual, but DFS players that only play a few games will need to make some tough decisions. Personally, I prefer Schauffele over Rahm, but we are talking about fractions of a percent.

Justin Thomas ($10,600)

Early returns have Justin Thomas as the projected highest owned player for the ZOZO Championship, but can you really blame anyone? The 27-year-old gets a venue that will reward second shots and par-five scoring, and Thomas ranks first compared to the field in both categories. You might not be able to handpick a better venue than Sherwood Country Club for the 13-time PGA Tour winner, and I believe he should have been listed as the highest-priced player on the board.

Rory McIlroy ($10,400)

As much as I want to keep going down the Rory McIlroy road, it eventually becomes counterintuitive to keep gaining negative-EV performances out of him from a DFS perspective. McIlroy hasn't paid off his salary in quite some time, and while he is technically adequately priced for the week, I wouldn't play him as much more than a contrarian option in the $10,000 range. I'd like to see a top-five performance before buying back in right now.

Tyrrell Hatton ($10,000)

Tyrrell Hatton brings with him two consecutive top-three results after finishing last weekend in a share of third place, but there is no other way to say it; this increase is too much. Hatton should be in the low-$9,000 range, and I will let him beat me if it comes down to it.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Collin Morikawa ($9,800)

We saw some life from Collin Morikawa last weekend at Shadow Creek for the first time since his victory at the PGA Championship. Morikawa's 12th place result was aided by him gaining nearly six shots with his irons, and he receives the perfect venue to keep the momentum rolling again. Ownership always wants to get back onto the young American, so I doubt we get a version of him that is under 15%, but his upside is about as good as anyone in the field.

Webb Simpson ($9,700)

This general interpretation of Webb Simpson's skillset just isn't fair. The American has transformed himself into a statistical monster in 2020, but we continue to believe that it can't be possible for him to maintain this level with the way he is priced. There are only 78 players in this field, which will push Simpson into being very popular, but I have a hard time justifying Rory McIlroy or Tyrrell Hatton being above him in salary. Simpson should be considered value.

Viktor Hovland ($9,200)

If approach play is an expected benchmark needed to find success at the ZOZO Championship, Viktor Hovland might be the poster boy for the tournament. Hovland is ranked inside the top-10 in strokes gained approach compared to the field, and he is impressively grading out first in weighted proximity - a number you can find in my DFS model.

Daniel Berger ($8,900)

I keep mentioning this point about Daniel Berger, but it hasn't stopped the carpet from slowly being pulled from underneath him when it comes to his price tag. Right before and after the restart, Berger was playing like a freight train that looked like he might be the best golfer in the world, but we knew that wasn't exactly sustainable. As a result, his four more recent finishes between 17th to 34th place have been viewed as a disappointment, but it is fair to say that negative regression across the board has hit his game at once. If we want to move the American back into the $8,000 range because of a few subpar results by his standards, it is going to mean that I find myself significantly overweight to the field. Berger is perfectly suited to find success in California.

Joaquin Niemann ($8,400)

We have beaten the drum the last few weeks that Joaquin Niemann was underpriced, and we finally get a correction on the Chilean. Still, though, Niemann is someone I have properly priced in the high $8,000 section, and I believe there is still value to be had on the explosive youngster.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Abraham Ancer ($7,800)

After a run that looked like Abraham Ancer was closing in on his first PGA Tour title, things sputtered for the 21st-ranked player in the world for two months. Ancer could only provide one top-40 result in that time frame, but he seems to have regained some of his form with two top-30 finishes in Vegas - including a fourth place at the Shriners Open. The 29-year-old has the ball-striking acumen to keep his momentum rolling at Sherwood Country Club and should be considered a potential longshot to capture the title.

Brian Harman ($7,300)

Brian Harman hasn't finished outside the top-40 in his last seven starts but gets priced as the 33rd choice on DraftKings. The shorter venue should play into his quality short game, and I believe he is one of the better cash-game options on the board because of his recent success and price tag.

Cameron Smith ($7,200)

Similar to what I just said about Brian Harman, Cameron Smith has provided six straight top-40 finishes and enters the week priced at only $7,200. Even in a no-cut event, the safer routes will hold value in cash-game builds, and it isn't as if either player mentioned doesn't have the potential to crack the top-10.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,200)

The second-rated golfer in my model when it comes to inequality in price differential, Sebastian Munoz is quickly beginning to transform himself into a player to be reckoned with weekly. The Colombian has contributed five top-27 finishes over his last six events and continues to add to this region of lower-priced options with safety and upside.

Kevin Na ($6,900)

Nearly four strokes gained off the tee at the Shriners mixed with about 1.5 with his irons at the CJ Cup has Kevin Na trending in the right direction for the ZOZO Championship. Na is the fourth-ranked player in my model when looking at Bentgrass putting and scrambling, and his overall proximity totals should add another level of optimism. We have seen in the past that the 37-year-old is a threat to win when located at any price, and this week is no different.

Adam Hadwin ($6,700)

I understand the pricing for Adam Hadwin. His most significant advantage typically comes because of his ability to make the cut, and the lack of that in California takes away some of the reason to play him. However, there is a hidden upside available to the Canadian that some might be overlooking. Hadwin ranks inside the top-25 in proximity, sand save percentage and Bent putting, as well as being inside the top-10 over his last 24 rounds around the green. None of those statistics necessarily guarantee him to score, but I do think his overall nature of consistency makes him hard to ignore at $6,700.

Corey Conners ($6,600), Kevin Streelman ($6,600), Brendan Steele ($6,500)

There are a few options lower than this in price that will still be playable, but the bottom of the board starts to shrink up rather quickly. None of that means we can't take our chances with a Danny Lee, Mark Hubbard or Carlos Ortiz if we need to open up some salary elsewhere, but I do think we lose some of the win equity present once we bypass this area. Conners, Streelman and Steele all should be viewed as hit-and-miss options, but a ball-strikers course firmly places them in a territory of being under consideration.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 🔥🔥🔥

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.

More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Martin Laird captured the first leg of the Vegas stretch on Sunday at TPC Summerlin, defying physics with a few of his shots during the final round. Not only did Laird find a way to make eagle from a buried lie near the lip of the bunker, but he proceeded to get up-and-down at the par-three 17th after looking like double-bogey was in play.

While we didn't pinpoint Laird in our article last week, I am incredibly pleased with what transpired. Justin Suh, who was our longshot value at TPC Summerlin, took home a top-10 result at just $6,200, and it helped matters out that one of our biggest fade recommendations (Collin Morikawa) missed the cut on Friday. We will look to keep the momentum going for the second consecutive week in my hometown, so let's roll the dice once again.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - CJ Cup

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

CJ Cup - PGA DFS Overview

Shadow Creek

7,527 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

We are going to have an uphill climb in what to expect for the CJ Cup this week. I wish I had more information about the venue since it is located in my city, but Shadow Creek is one of the most exclusive clubs in the country, and I can't say I have much first-hand knowledge when it comes to the ins-and-outs of the property.

Originally designed and opened by Tom Fazio in 1990, you may remember Tiger Woods/Phil Mickelson holding their original match at the venue in 2018. It is tough to decipher too much from a matchplay contest where neither man played their best golf, but we still can take a few things away from what we witnessed.

At 7,527 yards, we should expect distance to be an advantage, which is emphasized by three of the par-fives stretching over 570 yards. Long iron proximity becomes something that we can target in our research, and we might want to add some around the green numbers because of the length of second shots. On weeks where it isn't easy to know what to forecast numerically, I like to keep things steady with basic modeling that doesn't get overly complex. The cream typically rises to the top in these shallow field events, and I wouldn't expect much of that to change in Vegas.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Shadow Creek	Tour Average
Driving Distance	N/a	281
Driving Accuracy	N/A	62%
GIR Percentage	N/A	65%
Scrambling Percentage	N/A	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	N/A	0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm lead the way at 10/1 and are followed by Justin Thomas at 12/1 and Rory McIlroy/Xander Schauffele at 14/1.

 

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Off The Tee 20%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better 20%
• Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
• Driving Distance 15%
• Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
• Bent Putting + Scrambling 10%
• Overall Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Jon Rahm ($11,300)

Six players located above $10,000 should give us some semblance of how tightly priced casinos and DFS sites view the top of the board to be for the CJ Cup. I can't deviate too much from the narrative since I have the big five participating in this event as the deserving five choices (in not necessarily the same order), but it does give us a more complex handicapping strategy to consider. Early returns are suggesting that Rahm and Rory McIlroy might be your two lowest owned players in this range, but I do believe it is important to not get caught up entirely in a strategy that tries to fade the chalk. With that being said, Rahm and McIlroy would have been my preferred options in a vacuum situation, which will only help push me into owning a slightly larger portion of the duo.

Dustin Johnson ($11,100)

In a week where we aren't sure how many players have prior first-hand experience at the property, Dustin Johnson enters the contest as the clubhouse leader with his course record of 66. That number only takes into account rounds since the Fazio restoration in 2008, but it might surprise some to see six-under par as the best round on record over the last 12 seasons. I don't want to go down this path of making Shadow Creek sound as if it is a test that is going to mimic what we just saw transpire at Winged Foot since the exclusivity of the property doesn't exactly allow tons of rounds from quality golfers, but I do believe the comparison to TPC Summerlin is not fair in the sense that this week could see a winning score that is closer to what we would expect at a venue that isn't yielding birdies in bunches. We know Johnson plays slightly more challenging courses well, and I would expect that we see him use his driving prowess to provide another quality effort.

*** DJ has withdrawn from the event because of COVID.

Justin Thomas ($10,800)

The cat has been out of the bag for years with Justin Thomas' results in no-cut tournaments, and that alone is going to inflate the American to perhaps being the most owned player on the slate. It seems likely that the winner will come from within this range, so I wouldn't necessarily overthink ownership totals to try and be contrarian. However, the decision will have to be yours. I don't have many negative things to say about this group, and you are going to have to figure out what bothers you while trying to separate the fivesome.

Rory McIlroy ($10,600)

We haven't seen the best out of Rory McIlroy since the restart, but I am finding it difficult to ignore his three consecutive top-12 results. I realize it is hard to write home about a 12th and a seventh during two tournaments that featured subsided fields, but that portrayal is exactly what makes me believe the Irishman is undervalued for the week. His eighth-place result at the U.S. Open came at a venue that didn't exactly highlight his preferred course difficulty, and I think we see him use his added length to compete for a title this weekend in Vegas.

Xander Schauffele ($10,300)

When the GIR percentage in a tournament goes down, we typically see Xander Schauffele take some steps above the rest of the field. Schauffele is arguably the best golfer in the world when it comes to hitting greens, and the added distance of second shots should only increase his advantage. The no-cut narrative will boost his ownership, but I can't find too many alarming factors to use against him in Vegas.

Matthew Wolff ($10,000)

BOOO! Matthew Wolff landing inside the $10,000 range means I have to talk about him. For those that follow this article closely, you will know that I don't discuss the American often. I essentially live by the mindset that he is playable when distance and scoring will be manageable and out of play when he can get himself into trouble off the tee. That didn't work perfectly when we saw Wolff come second at the U.S. Open a few weeks ago, but I hate to admit that the youngster does seem to be morphing into a much steadier player. The 21-year-old is still marginally overpriced because of his recent success, but I don't think it is as pronounced as it used to be in the past.

 

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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Daniel Berger ($9,300)

Daniel Berger has provided a handful of respectable finishes in a row, but it is a far cry from what the 13th-ranked player in the world was generating right before and after the restart. I do think it is fair to say that some regression to the mean has taken place for the American, but what should we consider a suitable price on Berger? For me, somewhere in the mid $9,000 range is the correct going rate, and I believe we are saving a few hundred dollars at $9,300.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200)

Hideki Matsuyama burned the industry a week ago at TPC Summerlin and should see some reduced ownership across the board at Shadow Creek. I'm less worried about his missed cut than usual since we are guaranteed four rounds out of the Japanese sensation, and Matsuyama tends to be a golfer that can exceed his finishing position on DFS sites because of his ball-striking acumen.

Viktor Hovland ($9,000)

Off the tee success, quality long irons and the ability to score on par-fives is a relatively simplistic overview of what Viktor Hovland does well, and it should help that Shadow Creek appears like it will demand similar traits to find success. The 23-year-old has struggled early in his career around the greens, but we have seen a slight improvement as of late in that area of his game.

Scottie Scheffler ($8,800)

Let's try to erase Scottie Scheffler's missed cut at the Shriners Open out of our memory bank. We can't take much away from a golfer firing a six-under par through two rounds and missing the cut, and it shouldn't be a deterrent while making your builds. Scheffler has shown some flashes of brilliance over his last two events and should be able to find a better rhythm in his third consecutive start since recovering from COVID.

Sungjae Im ($8,700)

It may come as a surprise to some, but Sungjae Im, not Bryson DeChambeau, led the Shriners Open in strokes gained off the tee at TPC Summerlin. Im added to his resume by ranking first in accuracy and greens in regulation, and any improvement with his putter might turn the South Korean into a threat to exceed the expectation level around him at Shadow Creek.

Paul Casey ($8,000)

A lack of perceived upside typically keeps Paul Casey's ownership down in more significant events, and it looks to be the case once again this weekend. The Englishman's $8,000 price tag is low enough so we don't have to worry about what his exact win equity is for the tournament, and it gives us a golfer that should have a decent shot to exceed his salary on DFS sites.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Justin Rose ($7,800)

Ranked fourth in my model compared to the field in par-five birdie or better percentage, Justin Rose's volatility should be viewed as a positive in this no-cut event. Rose has been known to come out of left field in the past, and the combination of long iron proximity and Bentgrass greens should only add to the allure around the Englishman.

Shane Lowry ($7,600)

After leading through two rounds during last week's BMW PGA Championship, Shane Lowry fired a final round 73 on Sunday to slip into 13th place. It was a disappointing culmination to the Irishman's event, but it should help keep him under the radar at Shadow Creek. Lowry is currently projected to be just two percent owned on DraftKings, and there will be contrarian value to be had for those that are willing to take a gamble.

Bubba Watson ($7,300)

I'm not sure if Bubba Watson's finishes are telling the complete story of how well he is striking the ball. Watson has gained a combined 22.2 strokes off the tee and with his irons over his last four events, and it has just been a poor putter that has held him back each weekend. Perhaps Watson could take a page out of Sergio's book and try putting with his eyes closed, but I wouldn't be shocked if we see it all come together for him soon.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,000)

I am pretty surprised to see Sebastian Munoz projected to carry under 10 percent ownership for the CJ Cup. It has been seven events since Munoz has missed a cut, and while that isn't something he will need to worry about this weekend in Las Vegas, his five top-27 finishes in his previous six events will go a long way. The 27-year-old is a threat to fall within that qualifying zone once again and should be considered a bargain at his going rate of $7,000.

Ryan Palmer ($6,700)

We have grown accustomed to volatility while rostering Ryan Palmer, but an event like the CJ Cup naturally lends itself to taking a more aggressive approach. Palmer is a quality par-five scorer who gains strokes tee-to-green, and it is going to be challenging to find more upside than he presents in this $6,000 range.

Dylan Frittelli ($6,600)

A ranking of 12th off the tee compared to the field over his previous 24 rounds is enough to give Dylan Frittelli a second look, and the picture becomes a little clearer when we peek at his ability to save par around the greens, as well as score on par-fives. The South African has generated six top-34 results in his last eight events, which means we should be viewing him as someone who is underpriced.

Cameron Champ ($6,400)

It is tough to like much about the form Cameron Champ is bringing to the event, but if firepower turns into the name of the game at Shadow Creek, there aren't many players in the world that possess more of it than the American. Champ is a GPP-only option that becomes less intriguing as the ownership rises, but I could be convinced to purchase a share or two at the right total.

Joohyung Kim ($6,400)

Joohyung Kim entered the beginning of 2019 ranked 2006th in the world but has turned in four worldwide victories and an additional 12 top-6 results in his last 31 events. All of this has moved him up to 117th in the 'Official World Golf Rankings,' and have I mentioned that he is only 18 years old? Kim doesn't have enough concrete statistical data in my model to provide confidence of what exactly he is as a player quite yet, but there are a ton of interesting categories that are showing him to be a potential phenom.

Harry Higgs ($6,300)

Ranked inside the top-30 of my model compared to the field in both driving distance and strokes gained off the tee, Harry Higgs is a golfer that can quickly move up this leaderboard if we get handed a course that is moderate in difficulty. Higgs has bounced back and forth between top-15 finishes and results outside the top-50 in his last four events, but his ability to gain strokes with his driver should come in handy.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 🔥🔥🔥

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.

More PGA DFS Analysis

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy golf articles and weekly analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Did anyone see the possibility for Sergio Garcia to regain some putting form at the Sanderson Farms? If you answered no, you probably weren't much different than the Spaniard, who was putting with his eyes closed throughout the event.

While it almost sounds like an outlandish story that can't be true, Garcia admitted after his round on Saturday that this is a strategy he has deployed numerous times throughout his career, including during his only major championship victory at Augusta. Sometimes seeing is believing, and who am I to question the now 11-time PGA Tour winner.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Shriners Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Shriners Open - PGA DFS Overview

TPC Summerlin

7,251 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

The PGA Tour brings a star-studded field to Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, which is a welcoming sight after a few substandard contests in a row. Measuring in as a 7,251 yard par-71, Bobby Weed masterminded the property on the rugged desert terrain, with Fuzzy Zoeller serving as his consultant. The course itself meanders through arroyos and canyons and features lush Bentgrass greens to go along with friendly Bermuda rough.

I've noted before that I don't play a ton of golf, but TPC Summerlin is a venue that I have teed it up at in the past. Only 15 minutes away from my house, the property is one of the most visually aesthetic in the city, but for what it brings in looks, you lose some of the difficulty along the way. One hundred and two bunkers were redone in 2018 to try and add a little more challenge, but it hasn't appeared to do much with the average winning score coming in at 22-under par during that time frame.

In my opinion, the only real defense for the course itself would be wind. Many people don't realize just how breezy Vegas can get throughout the year, and it does appear as if gusts are in the forecast. We will see if that holds accurate after an extremely subdued last few weeks, but it is worth noting that we might want to find golfers that play well in conditions that are a little tougher. The three par-fives and two short par-fours are the most accessible holes, and four of these are included during the final six-hole stretch. There is a challenging par-three 17th, but that will be the only real test for players coming home. Overall, golfers that can demonstrate ball-striking ability and strategy off the tee should exploit TPC Summerlin in an ideal situation, and it is not as if we should be anticipating anything that will be too grueling for the field.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	TPC Summerlin	Tour Average
Driving Distance	295	281
Driving Accuracy	59%	62%
GIR Percentage	72%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	54%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.53	0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Webb Simpson at 11/1, Patrick Cantlay at 16/1 and Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1. Kevin Na, your defending champion, enters the week at 70/1.

 

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Off the Tee 17.5%
• Weighted Bent Putting + Scrambling 15%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 15%
• Weighted Total Driving 15%
• Sand Save 12.5%
• Proximity 125-175 Yards 12.5%
• Proximity 200+ Yards 12.5%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are four players this week priced above $10,000:

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,800)

There are some weeks where you can get contrarian to find an edge in DFS contests, but it won't be easy to think outside the box for the Shriners Open. TPC Summerlin has proven to be a venue that consistently has the same names rise to the top, and I believe it is essential to look at course history before handicapping the event. That is never a narrative that you hear me discuss for this article, as I am a firm believer that stats and current form tell more of the picture than past results at a venue, but the top of the DFS board reads like a "who's who" for past success. Bryson DeChambeau's three consecutive top-seven results at the property, including his victory in 2018, will go a long way, but it won't come cheaply at $11,800.

Webb Simpson ($11,000)

A victory here in 2013 to go along with four other top-20 results in his other six attempts shows that TPC Summerlin has quietly been one of Webb Simpson's go-to locations. We always discuss his dominance at places like the Wyndham Championship, but Vegas has quietly turned into a location where the American has popped, even when he hasn't ridden the best form into the week. I believe gamers looking for a rebate in price can safely go down to the seventh-ranked player in the world, but we shouldn't be getting much deviation in ownership between Simpson and DeChambeau. Everyone above $10,000 will be popular.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,400)

Patrick Cantlay will provide us our first real thinking spot at $10,400. The American grades out as my fifth-ranked golfer in terms of overall DFS modeling, but he does come in below the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama. The margins are so thin that I wouldn't necessarily blame anyone for pivoting to the 13th-ranked player in the world, but it is worth noting that Cantlay isn't bringing the same form to the week of previous seasons, which might prevent him from adding his fourth consecutive top-two finish at TPC Summerlin to his resume. We are nitpicking here, but I could argue that Cantlay might end up being my odd man out for no other reason than strength around him.

Tony Finau ($10,200)

Surprisingly, Tony Finau is my first "true value" of the week, as the big-hitter from Utah should be priced $200 more on DraftKings. Again, we are talking fractions of a percent when it comes to expected output, but I like to pinpoint where there are deviations from my model to actual pricing. With all that being said, I always find it challenging to pay up in salary for Finau, who has proven to have trouble getting himself across the finish line. I am done predicting where Finau's next victory will happen, but TPC Summerlin is a good location for his style, and I wouldn't be surprised if he finds himself having another chance on Sunday.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900)

I'll be interested to see where Hideki Matsuyama falls with his actual ownership. As of right now, the Japanese sensation is expected to generate 15% for DraftKings contests, but I could see that number falling as gamers shift to other options around him. Matsuyama's ball-striking nature should give him a chance to grow from his 16th-place result here last season, and his overall makeup places him as perhaps the safest option under $10,000. I realize my happy-go-lucky disposition for every golfer is wearing thin, but it should explain how correctly priced a board we have received. Sometimes it just isn't easy to find value.

Collin Morikawa ($9,800)

From a pure upside perspective, Collin Morikawa is an intriguing route for GPP contests. His two missed cuts in his previous three events will take him off my board when it comes to cash games, but the American provides us with the same caliber upside as the top of the board, just at a reduced salary price. Saving a few dollars is never a bad thing, and it might allow you more maneuverability in roster construction.

Jason Day ($9,500)

I'd be negligent if I didn't discuss Jason Day during an event in my hometown. My affinity for the Aussie has not been hidden, but I want to make it clear that he earns his spot in this write-up because of his skills. Day's ability to scramble, play out of the bunker and score on par-fives will come in handy at TPC Summerlin, and he provides DFS participants an extremely intriguing situation to grab a top-tiered player at less than five percent.

Sungjae Im ($9,300)

It was a swing and a miss for Sungjae Im last weekend in Mississippi after fluttering to a 28th-place result at the Sanderson Farms. Lofty ownership from the previous week that doesn't result in a top-10 finish will typically account for most DFS players going underweight in the following contest, and that narrative is shaping up early in the week. Im is only projected to be nine percent owned, but I'd be careful in avoiding the 22-year-old. Im has a 15th-place finish on his record here in 2018 and showed some life last Sunday with a final round 66.

Joaquin Niemann ($8,100)

I think it is important to check how someone missed a cut when doing research. After a 10th-place showing in 2018 at TPC Summerlin, Joaquin Niemann failed to make the weekend last year, missing the cut on the number. Two rounds of 69 shouldn't indicate any potential issues, and the Chilean has the upside to make birdies in bunches - something that can play to his advantage if he gets hot.

Brian Harman ($8,000)

Brian Harman's lack of robust finishes has kept him subdued in salary for the last few months, but it continues to provide us a situation to grab the lefty at a reduced price tag. Harman has provided back-to-back top-18 results at this week's venue, and his ability to scramble and get up-and-down out of bunkers should give him an edge over most of the field.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Doc Redman ($7,900)

I guess we have to discuss Doc Redman, who is projected to be the highest owned player this week under $8,000. I typically don't find as much value as most on the 22-year-old, but I agree that Redman is underrated for this week's contest. I do think we have potential pivot situations possible, but I won't be entirely avoiding the American as I sometimes do.

Cameron Smith ($7,800)

Speaking of potential pivots, Cameron Smith gives us someone that has shown to be capable of winning on tour but isn't a name that most seem to want to roster. The Aussie enters the week having produced four straight top-45 results, and he hasn't finished outside of 13th in his previous two showings in Vegas. Golfers like Smith are typically where I like to shift when ownership clouds a section, and his five percent projected total has me raising both eyebrows.

Harold Varner ($7,500)

It is hard to compile all of what Harold Varner III has done over the past few years and not feel as if he has underachieved. The American has only produced one top-10 showing on tour in 2020, and he hasn't exactly been a beacon for consistency with eight missed cuts in 17 tournaments. However, despite all the negative traits we can highlight of why he hasn't found more success, Varner seems to be trending towards a golfer ready to achieve more in his career. Three top-29 finishes over his last four tournaments is an encouraging sign, and his ability to gain strokes off the tee shouldn't be discounted.

Aaron Wise ($7,400)

There are a lot of players in the field with a Las Vegas backstory, but Aaron Wise takes it to another level. The 24-year-old experienced his first big break at the property in 2016 when he finished 10th, and his success at the venue can be easily explained. Wise uses TPC Summerlin as his home course and is coached by Jeff Smith - one of the head teaching pros at the property. It has been a rocky past few seasons for the Oregon product, but he might be trending in the right direction after finishing last week in 17th-place.

Lanto Griffin ($7,300)

There is a relatively solid built-in floor for Lanto Griffin, entering the week having made his last seven cuts. An 18th-place finish at TPC Summerlin in 2019 adds to the sanguinity, and it is not as if gamers are flocking to the 68th-ranked player in the world. Griffin should be someone to consider for cheap in cash-game contests, and his par-five scoring might help him to crack another top-25 result.

Luke List ($7,000)

Three straight top-20 results for Luke List in Vegas has turned the Vanderbilt product into a trendy sleeper this week. List has been shaky as of late, but his eighth-place result at the Corales Puntacana should add some optimism that the 141st-ranked player in the world can keep his streak alive in Sin City.

Adam Schenk ($6,900)

I realize we aren't talking about bank-breaking results, but DFS sites have refused to do much with Adam Schenk's price tag. The American has executed nine consecutive made cuts, but it has gone relatively unnoticed because of some subpar weekends. I will continue to play Schenk until he sees an increase that places him in the $7,000 range, and I believe he once again presents one of the better values on the board.

Chesson Hadley ($6,700)

It was a disappointing result for Chesson Hadley in Mississippi, but it might be a blessing in disguise if it allows us to grab last week's chalk at a quiet ownership total. Hadley has not finished worse than 18th in his last three trips to Vegas and has two top-seven results during that time frame.

Matt Jones ($6,600)

Ranked seventh in my model in par-five birdie or better percentage, Matt Jones also grades inside the top-25 in weighted Bentgrass putting + scrambling, sand save percentage and overall par-five scoring. Jones has produced two top-30 finishes at this week's venue during the last four years and also has made three cuts.

MJ Daffue ($6,500)

I wouldn't feel comfortable playing a ton of MJ Daffue, but there are a few things to like about his recent form. Daffue rides into the week off of a 12th-place showing at the Sanderson Farms, and he has birdied nearly 60% of his par-fives during the eight trackable rounds I have on him. A 72.22 GIR percentage has the South African as someone to keep an eye on going forward.

Beau Hossler ($6,500)

It is funny what two years can do to a young player. In 2018, I selected Beau Hossler to find his breakthrough victory in Vegas at odds of 55/1, and it feels as if everything has gone wrong for the Mission Viejo native since that moment. Hossler is a world-class putter when he gets it rolling, and we have gotten a small taste of that with him ranking third compared to the field over his last 100 rounds on Bentgrass greens.

Justin Suh ($6,200)

I think we sometimes don't realize how good a younger player is until their breakout performance happens on a bigger stage. After missing the first four cuts of 2020, Suh has delivered two top-25 finishes since the Barracuda, and none of it should come as that big of a surprise to the American after spending 26 weeks as the number one amateur in the world between 2018-2019.

 

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