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We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June. You can check our first review of the early-summer risers and fallers at running back, wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback.
Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player in your team.
ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.
Running Backs - ADP Risers
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ronald Jones' ADP already went 12 picks up from the span of the draft to early June, and it has kept rising during the past four weeks. In fact, it has risen even more in this late timespan, which is 15 picks over where it was by early July. That is even considering the late addition of LeSean McCoy to the backfield. On top of adding McCoy, Tampa drafted Ke'Shawn Vaughn and also has Dare Ogunbowale in the backfield.
If we're honest, Jones hasn't looked closer to a world-beater in his first two years as a pro. He only had one 100-yard game in 2019 and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Vaughn snatching the lead role from him within a matter of time. This is assuming he clears the COVID-19 protocol he was put into a few weeks ago and has no underlying or nagging issues that derail his season.
Jones offered an atrocious ROI at the latest ADP we covered and although it sounds impossible, it is now worse (projected for 100 PPR/RB53 while having the 31st-highest ADP among RBs). If his price doesn't drop a lot, I'd keep fading him.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
Did you see that jump from below-20th pick to above-10th pick in the chart seemingly happening overnight for Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire? Well, that's the world we live in these days, as the impact COVID-19 is having on football is already huge. In other words, RB Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 NFL season and won't be playing for the Chiefs next year.
The rookie Edwards-Helaire was already being drafted super high, which made sense considering he was projected to get 188+ PPR points by PFF even sharing the backfield with Williams. Now all of Williams' opportunities (and thus fantasy points) will most probably fall on Clyde's lap, giving him a much higher floor nearing 250+ PPR points for the season. That is no joke, as Edwards-Helaire is now entering the realm of RB1 players with a real chance at finishing inside the top-10 at the position.
If you were passing on Edwards-Helaire because of concerns about him sharing duties with Williams, fear nothing now. I know he is a rookie and that should give pause to some fantasy GMs when it comes to drafting him with a first-round pick. But, all things considered, with KC having one of the most booming offenses in the league, all things point in the right direction for the freshman entering 2020.
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
At this point, there isn't much to uncover in Indianapolis' backfield. It's been months since the Colts drafted stud-running back Jonathan Taylor and he's getting drafted as the RB19 while projecting to be the RB25 overall in 2020. That is not a great variation between draft position and projections until we consider his true ADP of 34.4 overall and the paltry ROI that type of player would yield.
Not only that, but Taylor will be sharing the backfield with an already-tested rusher in Marlon Mack--who I have as Indy's RB1--and a very capable, do-it-all RB in Nyheim Hines. If all things stay the same given those three players' profiles and past performance, Hines would be the pass-catching running back among them. That means that he should, in principle, suffer the least inside this committee, as he will keep his role virtually intact.
That is perhaps why fantasy GMs are drafting him almost a round earlier than they were doing a month ago. While obviously not a league-winning player himself, Hines projects as one of the better pass-catchers among RBs in the whole league and as a top-10 player in receiving yards and receptions at the position even with his RB3 role in the Colts offense. He's a steal of a player at his current ADP, and he still would be even if it keeps rising.
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