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We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June. You can check our first review of the early-summer risers and fallers at running back, wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback.
Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player in your team.
ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.
Quarterbacks - ADP Fallers
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
No quarterback has seen a huge drop in ADP during the past few weeks. Carr leads the pack, but the fall sits at just 4.5 picks, which isn't even half of a round in 12-team redraft leagues. No news has dropped about the supposedly ongoing quarterback battle between Carr and Marcus Mariota, so it makes sense.
As I see it (and it is the same in the case of Mitchell Trubisky/Nick Foles, for example), Carr will hold onto the starting role at least for a few weeks (three? four?) before Vegas decides to move on if he puts on a streak of duds to start the season. But there is no chance Carr is not your Raiders' starter in Week 1.
That being said, Carr projects to just 258 PPR points in 2020 per PFF, which would make him the 19th-best QB in the league. Fantasy GMs are still drafting Carr as a late-rounder inside the 14/15th rounds, but there should be much better options out there earlier or even that late in drafts for you to look at instead. With his short-term future in the air and his back against the ropes (Mariota is waiting in the wings, remember), I'd pass on Carr.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jones and Carr are super close in terms of PFF projections. Carr is at 258 PPR points and Jones at 256, but the difference in ADP is massive. Carr is getting drafted as the QB27 while Jones is getting off the board as the QB14. The distance is ADP is currently at almost 50 spots, which is to say four rounds in 12-team leagues.
The Giants passer is projected to finish the year as the QB20 in 2020 but is getting drafted six spots earlier in the QB-draft-ranks. If we go by potential return on investment, there are 19 quarterbacks above Jones right now, and seven of them are cheaper than Jones while projecting to more fantasy points in 2020: Ryan Tannehill, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and Philip Rivers.
I think Jones has some upside to him, but the price is a little high for what he could end doing on the gridiron for the Giants next season. Truth be told, I'd rather bank on a rookie like Joe Burrow than paying a high price for someone like Jones.
Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts
Jacoby Brissett is nowhere close to Rivers' ability at manning a team, and Rivers is seemingly unbreakable no matter his age so he won't be missing any games. Even with that, Rivers only projects to 245 fantasy points in 2020, which would be good for only QB22 while he's getting drafted as QB25 with an ADP of 155 overall (13th round). As a late flier, that's not bad, but he's barely a QB2 by PFF projections so there is not much upside to getting him with a pick.
If anything, just grab him from waivers for free once the draft is completed and stream him when the situation (your roster and the bye weeks hitting) calls for it. Although only Carr has a better projection while being drafted at a cheaper ADP (assuming he plays all year as the starter, that is), it doesn't make much sense to me to waste a late-round pick on Rivers while you can get a receiver or rusher with much more upside to become a league-winning player instead of drafting a middling QB you can get for free easily. And if you can't, there will be plenty of other similar QBs on waivers for you to pick for free. Easy fade.
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