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The Astros vs. Rays props are too close to call for my taste, but the Braves vs. Dodgers game features props worth considering. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.
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Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Hit Parade
Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger more than 3.5 total hits
Freddie Freeman:
53 batters have seen at least 100 fastballs above 96 mph since the beginning of last season, and none have posted a higher xwOBA against those pitches than Freddie Freeman (.504). Dropping that qualifier to 50 pitches expands the sample to 254 batters, and Freeman still ranks in the top-five, making him one of the best (if not the best) power-fastball hitter in baseball. Freeman will face off against a pitcher with a 97 mph average fastball velocity in Walker Buehler, and Buehler throws the pitch 54% of the time. Combined with the fact the Freeman has been arguably the best hitter in the National League with a resume that includes a .462 OBP that’s well-supported by a .341 xBA, a 28% chase rate, and an 8.5% swinging-strike rate, and Freeman’s relatively favorable matchup against Walker Buehler gives him a solid chance of reaching base multiple times on Monday.
Dansby Swanson:
If Freddie Freeman is the league’s best high-velocity fastball hitter, Dansby Swanson isn’t far behind. Since the start of 2019, Swanson has posted a .302 xBA and a .710 xSLG against fastballs faster than 96 mph, good for a top-10 xBA among hitters who have seen at least 100 of those pitches. Swanson also owns a 9.8% swinging-strike rate and 22.8% chase rate against curveballs (Buehler’s best pitch by swinging-strike rate), and that strength should help insulate Swanson from strikeouts on Monday. All of that means that Swanson should pick up a hit or two on Monday, making him a solid addition to this prop.
Cody Bellinger:
Cody Bellinger feasts on fastballs outside of the strike zone. Only 11 hitters posted an xBA above Bellinger’s .309 mark against fastballs outside of the strike zone this season (min. 100 results), and his matchup against Braves starting pitcher Max Fried is favorable in that regard as Fried threw his fastball 42% of the time this season with more than half of those coming outside of the strike zone. A lefty-on-lefty matchup with Fried isn’t ideal for Bellinger, but the platoon shouldn’t have too much of an impact on Bellinger’s production. Indeed, Bellinger’s xBA against fastballs outside of the strike zone from southpaws sits .264 since he entered the league in 2017 -- still good for a top-30 mark this season better than any other hitter on the Dodgers. Combined with the fact that Bellinger is a generally excellent hitter who finished the season with a .339 xBA over his last 50 PA, Bellinger’s solid matchup makes him a strong fit for this prop.
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