NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 11) - Targets and Avoids

Week 10 good had its usual close games and blowouts. Favorites were nearly perfect straight up, going 12-2. The two blemishes were the Ravens losing to the Patriots and Eagles dropping one to the Giants. The Packers who were 14-point favorites, had to go down to the last drive with the Jaguars. And the game was in Lambeau.

Some of the other favorites were the Steelers, Bucs, and Raiders. They all took care of business. In total, they went 9-5 against the spread.

Week 11 kicks off with an NFC West battle between the Cardinals and Seahawks. The Bills, Bears, 49ers, and Giants are on bye.

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Survivor League Week 11

Teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 11; Steelers -10 @ Jaguars, Chargers -8.5 vs. Jets, Vikings -8.5 vs. Cowboys, and Chiefs -6.5 @ Raiders.

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Tuesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

I also give out my three top plays against the spread. That can be found at the bottom of the column.

 

Top Survivor Picks for Week 11

Steelers -10 @ Jaguars

The undefeated Steelers will look to move to to 10-0, while the Jaguars have lost eight in a row after opening the season with a win. Jake Luton has no shot against this Pittsburgh defense that ranks fifth in yards per play. Their defense also leads the league in 36 sacks so we'll get to see Luton running around a lot more than he did in Green Bay Sunday. The Steelers will be surely looking ahead to their Thursday night Thanksgiving game against the Ravens. They may be sluggish to start but will pull away in the second half.

Steelers 27 - Jaguars 14

 

Chargers -8.5 vs. Jets

The 2-7 Chargers host the winless Jets. The Chargers should be a .500 team but continue to find a different way to lose each week. Statistically, they're pretty average while the Jets are one of the worst. New York will get one win this year, but not this week. The game will be close though because the Chargers don't run away with any game.

Chargers 23 - Jets 19

 

Chiefs -6.5 @ Raiders

These teams played back in Week 5 with the Raiders dealing the Chiefs their lone loss on the year. This is the Sunday night game. Kansas City leads the division by two games and Vegas needs this one to have any hope at getting a home playoff game. Andy Reid is reportedly still upset about the Raiders taking a victory lap at Arrowhead during their first game. On top of that, Reid is 18-3 off a bye in his career. And the Chiefs are a road favorite off a bye. There is no way to stop the Chiefs offense, only slow it down, and the Raiders won't be able to do that. They have 11 sacks on the year and rank in the bottom half of the league in third-down defense.

Vegas will be able to establish Josh Jacobs early and often against a Chiefs rush defense that ranks 29th. But Patrick Mahomes is going to be too much.

Chiefs 38 - Raiders 27

 

Seahawks -3 vs. Cardinals

The NFL is such a week to week league and sometimes just doesn't make sense. This game falls right into that. Arizona is off a miraculous win. They've been celebrating like they've won the Super Bowl. Seattle is off two straight losses. Russell Wilson has not looked good. The defense is awful.

Looking ahead, Seattle has a chance to run the table. Their games; at Eagles, vs. Giants, vs. Jets, at Washington, vs. Rams, vs. 49ers. They should be favored in all those games.

We can expect a shootout in this one with both teams in the top-5 in yards per play. The over/under is 57.5.

Seahawks 37 - Cardinals 32

 

Vikings -8.5 vs. Cowboys

Minnesota has won three in a row off the bye while Dallas is coming off their bye having lost four in a row. The Vikings lead the league in yards per play, are fourth in third down's the last three weeks, and third in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. They should be able to dominate the Cowboys Defense.

Andy Dalton is expected to play which will make a difference. That being help them cover the spread.

Vikings 26 - Cowboys 20

 

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

Saints -5 vs. Falcons

Last year the Saints were rolling, winners of six in a row, until they met the Falcons. Atlanta had lost six in a row. Both teams were off a bye. And the Falcons throttled the Saints in New Orleans. These teams know each other all too well. Drew Brees may not play which means Jameis Winston will start. That bodes better for the Saints, but it will take time for Winston to adopt. The Falcons won two in a row before their bye. Their defense has been much improved through their last three ranking 10th in yards per play and fifth in third down's.

 

Best Bets for Week 11

• Chiefs -6.5 @ Raiders
• Seahawks -3 vs. Cardinals
• Cowboys +8.5 @ Vikings

 

Running Totals

• Last week: 1-2
• 2020 season total: 16-14
• 2019 season total: 23-26-2

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