RADIO
The NFL heads into Week 13 with teams jockeying for position. With a full slate of games, there are great chances to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
After a grind-it-out win against the Baltimore Ravens on Wednesday afternoon – yes, Wednesday afternoon – The Pittsburgh Steelers are 11-0, one game ahead of the 10-1 Kansas City Chiefs in the race for the league’s best record.
At the other end of the spectrum, the New York Jets are trying to avoid a winless season but currently sit at 0-11, one game worse than the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have followed up a Week 1 win with 10 straight losses.
For many of the teams in between these extremes, there is still time to challenge for a playoff spot, either from teams that might be able to finish over .500 or the team that could win the NFC East, which may not require eight wins this year.
In any case, here are some prop angles to consider for the Sunday’s NFL schedule on Monkey Knife Fight:
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Deshaun Watson MORE THAN 275.5 PASSING YARDS
The Texans are starting to get more competitive and it’s mostly thanks to Watson, who has thrown for more than 275 yards in seven of his past eight games. He faces a Colts Defense that has been strong against the pass, allowing 209.9 passing yards per game and only three quarterbacks have passed for more than 250 yards against Indianapolis this season. Watson’s on a roll, so he could be the fourth.
Matt Ryan LESS THAN 274.5 PASSING YARDS
While Ryan is having a productive season, averaging 287.5 passing yards per game, he hasn’t put up big numbers in the past couple of weeks and he goes up against a Saints Defense that hasn’t allowed 275 passing yards in a game since Week 3.
Dalvin Cook MORE THAN 103.5 RUSHING YARDS
Cook has been awesome this year, averaging 113 rushing yards per game, but he ran for 61 yards last week and left with an ankle injury. While that could cast some doubt on Cook’s production this week, he’s also getting the benefit of going against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.
Derrick Henry LESS THAN 19.5 FANTASY POINTS
An average game for Henry this season includes 123 yards from scrimmage, a touchdown and 1.3 receptions. It’s not the easiest matchup for him, going against the Cleveland Browns, a team that has allowed 20 PPR points to a running back three times this season and has been a Top 10 team against the run this season.
RAPID FIRE
Calvin Ridley -0.5 receptions vs. A.J. Brown
As much as Brown has been a big-play threat for the Titans, he has not been a high-volume receiver, recording four or fewer catches in each of his past five games. Ridley has been a little more consistent, with five or more catches in five of his past six games.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Aaron Rodgers LESS THAN 285.5 PASSING YARDS
Rodgers has been brilliant this season, averaging 281.8 passing yards per contest. The last season he had a higher average yardage total was 2011. Nevertheless, the Packers take on the Eagles this week and the Philadelphia pass defense has been effective, allowing 210.7 passing yards per game and 5.9 net yards per attempt. They have allowed one quarterback all season to pass for more than 285 yards (Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow in Week 3).
Russell Wilson LESS THAN 280.5 PASSING YARDS
After a magnificent start to the season, Wilson has slowed down in terms of passing production, held under 250 yards in three straight games, but he gets a Giants Defense that has allowed more than 280 passing yards three times – to Nick Mullens, Carson Wentz, and Alex Smith – but also allowed 280 (Kyle Allen), and 279 (Tom Brady). It doesn’t require one to be an elite quarterback to have a productive game against the Giants, only that a team needs to throw enough to make it happen and that may not be the case in this game.
Justin Herbert MORE THAN 266.5 PASSING YARDS
The Patriots Defense is not as formidable as it has been in years past and it’s giving up 229.2 passing yards per game, which is fine, but they are also allowing 7.6 net yards per pass attempt and only the Jacksonville Jaguars are worse. They have only allowed more than 266 passing yards twice this season and they are tasked with trying to shut down Herbert, the Chargers rookie who has passes for more than 266 yards in eight of ten games.
Keenan Allen MORE THAN 6.5 RECEPTIONS
Herbert’s favorite target, Allen is averaging 7.7 receptions per game, has put up at least seven catches in seven of 11 games this season and he’s had double-digit targets in six of the past seven games. On the other hand, the Patriots have allowed precisely one wide receiver to record more than six catches in a game this season – Seattle’s Tyler Lockett had seven catches in Week 2. Still, if the Chargers are going to be competitive and Herbert is going to throw the ball like he usually does, then Allen should be a big part of that attack.
RAPID FIRE
Miles Sanders -1.5 rushing yards vs. Damien Harris
Both running backs are facing teams that are susceptible against the run. Sanders is averaging 75 rushing yards per game for the Eagles, even after managing just 15 yards on six carries last week, and he will try to get loose against a Green Bay defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry. Harris has put up 70.1 rushing yards per game for the Patriots, though he’s been held under 50 yards in back-to-back games and has a chance to produce against a Chargers team that is allowing 4.8 yards per carry.
Davante Adams -6.5 receiving yards vs. D.K. Metcalf
Adams is consistent. He’s averaging 100.9 receiving yards per game and that includes Week 2 when he was forced from the game with an injury after recording three catches for 36 yards. Metcalf is a beast in his own right, bigger and faster than anyone trying to cover him and coming off a game in which he produced a career-high 177 receiving yards. He’s averaging 94.5 receiving yards per game so this spread is fair enough but Adams is the safer play.
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