RADIO
The 2021 Tout Wars season kicked off this week with the 15-team Draft and Hold starting on Monday and then the NEW 12-team Mixed draft on Tuesday. The Draft and Hold is a slow draft, while the 12 team Mixed was live and rocking. I was fortunate enough to take part in the 12-team draft.
The new 12-team Mixed league was still a 5x5 rotisserie league, with a slight twist to a few categories. On the pitching side of the stats, instead of using WINS, the league will use INNINGS PITCHED (IP) and SV/HLD instead of just SAVES. On the hitting side of the stats, the league will use OBP instead of AVG. All Tout Wars leagues have changed to OBP in recent years, but the pitching categories of IP and SV/HLD is a new twist that makes sense with the changing landscape of the game of baseball. Each season, we are seeing fewer and fewer pitchers go deep into games that make W or QS tricky, to begin with, not to mention the flaws of the two categories. When it comes to IP, it rewards pitchers going deeper into games, which in return would usually result in a W or QS. It also rewards long relievers and other pitchers who are overlooked, putting in quality work that could help ratios and strikeouts but with the thrust for wins.
When it comes to the change to SV/HLD, it was just a matter of time. With more and more teams using multiple relievers to gain saves, using their best pitchers in high-leverage situations instead of strictly the ninth a necessary change. SV/HLD, similarly to IP, rewards many quality bullpen arms who are overlooked yearly.
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Strategy
Now that everyone knows the format let’s talk strategy. I have been fortunate in recent years to play in BARF (Bay Area Rotisserie Fantasy), where we use OBP instead of AVG. It seems like an easy transition when drafting, but at first, it is not as easy as most would think. Some individual players take a nice leap in OBP leagues, while others fall. Knowing those players and how that changes the player pool allows you to know when to jump ADP. I have also been fortunate to play in a deep league that uses SV/HLD. I knew going into the draft; you can wait on relievers if you choose as there are always HLD on the waiver wire.
Going into the draft, I was fortunate enough to draft with the third pick. The night before, I narrowed down my first-round targets to Juan Soto, Mike Trout, and Jacob deGrom. I wanted the best OBP machines, game-changers on offense, or one of the best IP arms in baseball. After the first round, I tried to nail down two to three heavy innings pitched arms while addressing high-end OBP talents with some speed. It was work with the draft flow while not forgetting about OBP and not worrying too much about saves. I say not to forget about OBP because I have found it harder to find OBP help on the waiver wire throughout the season than many other stats. I may be wrong, but that has been my experience.
The draft was my first “fast draft” of the season, and it did not disappoint. It was a blast drafting with some of Tout Wars veterans and a handful of newcomers like myself. Let’s go pick by pick and check out the team with some brief analysis of the drafting thought process.
Draft Results
1.3 Juan Soto, OF, WAS - Going into the draft, I was hoping for Soto, Mike Trout, or Jacob deGrom for my first pick. When Ronald Acuña and Fernando Tatis Jr. went first and second, I ran to draft Soto. When it comes to OBP leagues, there are not many better than Soto. He has had an OBP over .400 in each of his first three seasons, including leading the MLB with a .490 OBP in 2020. Drafting Soto was one of the easier draft picks I will ever have the luxury of making.
2.10 (22) Lucas Giolito, P, CWS - When it comes to IP being a new stat instead of W, I want to make sure I had some aces early on. This season I have Giolito as my SP4, so to see him fall to me near the end of round 2, I was ecstatic. Giolito threw 72.1 innings in 2020 after a back-to-back season of 173 or more innings pitched. He will be the workhorse we are looking for as an SP1.
3.3 (27) Luis Castillo, P, CIN - Sticking to the plan of getting aces early, I snagged Castillo. Castillo is high up my SP rankings, SP8 to be exact, so to see him fall to SP11 in the draft was music to my ears. Castillo is coming off a 2019 season where he threw 190 innings and a 2020 season where he threw 70 innings. There is no reason to think he cannot throw at least 170. The Giolito/Castillo combo of 170+ innings arms sets the team up nicely through three rounds.
4.10 (46) Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, KC - After back-to-back pitchers in the second and third rounds, I went back to the bats and grabbed Merrifield is a potent OBP bat who also brings very nice stolen base upside. Merrifield stole 34, 45, and 20 bags from 2017-2019. He projects for 25 or more steals and brings his nice OBP to a shallow 2B position.
5.3 (51) Lance Lynn, P, CWS - When it comes to innings eating machines, there have not been many better targets than Lance Lynn. He has thrown at least 175 innings in all but one season from 2012-2019, throwing over 200 innings three times, and threw 84 innings in 2020. Lynn makes for an outstanding SP3 in an IP league.
6.10 (70) Gleyber Torres, SS, NYY - Torres leads the way as one of my many picks that were 2020 bums after such high expectations entering the season. He only hit .243 with three home runs in 2020 but still put together an outstanding .356 OBP. In his first three seasons, he has not had an OBP worse than .337. I am in on a bounceback 2021 season with 30+ home runs as Torres hits in the middle of the Yankees lineup.
7.3 (75) Yasmani Grandal, C, CWS - The catcher position is usually a wasteland in AVG leagues, but there is more life in OBP formats. That still does not mean punt the position, but perhaps grab two tangible OBP assets instead of waiting till the end. I chose to draft Grandal, who was the third catcher off the board after Realmuto and Smith. The thing is, when it comes to OBP leagues, Grandal ranks right behind Realmuto when looking at the auction calculator. They are very close in projections as Grandal has had an OBP .349 or better for three straight seasons. I targeted Grandal before the draft and left with my C1 in this format.
8.10 (94) Rhys Hoskins, 1B, PHI - Oh Rhys’s Pieces. I have drafted Hoskins in many leagues already this season, but in an OBP format, he gets an even more significant boost. In his four seasons in the bigs, he has had an OBP between .354 and .396. Hoskins has the sixth-highest projected OBP according to ATC, bumping him up in this format. Jump on board the Hoskins bounceback 2021 train.
9.3 (99) Ketel Marte, 2B, ARI - Speaking of bounce-back seasons, look no further than Marte. Marte is coming off a down power season, yet still had a decent .287 AVG and .323 OBP. It was an odd season as Marte’s max EV was close to his norm at 115.9 mph, his hard-hit rate was still 40.5%, but he only had a 3.7% barrel rate. His flyball rate dropped while his groundball and popup rates rose some. It should not take Marte much of a chance to return to more of his 2019 form. 20+ home runs and ten or so steals are on the table with a quality OBP at second base.
10.10 (118) Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, TOR - Gurriel is the Jays outfielder that everyone should be drafting first in drafts. He has continued to showcase power improvements, some speed, and an increased walk rate in three straight seasons. He should be hitting in the middle of the Jays order, which will lead to a lot of fantasy goodness.
11.3 (123) Raisel Iglesias, P, LAA - I had mentioned above that there will be many SV/HLD candidates late in the draft and even on the waiver wire, but Iglesias was one of the few I wanted to target in the draft. There are five or six top-end closers when I draft, and if I can draft one of them, I will nearly all the time. Even in this format, the idea of a locked-in reliever that should save 30+ games and help with ratios and strikeouts is enormous. The reasoning behind drafting a lockdown closer instead of waiting until later is that you can just plug Iglesias in and leave him for the season. In contrast, later relievers may be like playing Russian Roulette some weeks. Not to mention Iglesias had 67 or more innings pitched in each of his first five MLB seasons.
12.10 (142) Tommy Edman, 2B/SS/3B/OF, STL - This was my first pick where I was not 100% sold on at the selection time. I love Edman as a player and do believe he can take the next step. He should be leading off for the Cardinals, leading to many runs scored and steals while hopefully adding in some home runs and RBI. More importantly, Edman brings massive multi-position eligibility to a team, allowing for more potential streaming roster spots for pitching.
13.3 (147) Alex Verdugo, OF, BOS - In an OBP format, Verdugo gets a nice bump in ADP for me. He has had an OBP of .340 or higher each of the last two seasons, and the projection sites have him with a near .350 OBP in 2021. He will be leading off for the Red Sox, who will be an offense that will score its fair share of runs, adding to Verdugo’s fantasy upside.
14.10 (166) Marcus Stroman, P, NYM- Stroman feels like a forgotten player in many drafts. It was not that long ago he was the Jays’ ace and was a heralded fantasy target. He is coming off a 2020 season in which he did not play, which could be the reason for the drop in ADP, but that does not bother me. He is a veteran arm thrown 180 or more innings in three of the last four seasons and has been an outstanding ratio asset.
15.3 (171) Mark Canha, OF, OAK - When it comes to OBP outfielders, Canha should be a heavy target later in drafts. He is coming off back-to-back seasons with a walk rate of at least 13% and an OBP between .387 and .396. In 2019 Canha also showcased some power by hitting 26 home runs. He is projected to hit second in the Athletics lineup and will even throw in a handful of steals to help in all five categories.
16.10 (190) Austin Nola, C, SD - I may have reached a bit here for my second catcher, but I wanted to lock in two studs not to have to worry about the position unless an injury occurs. Nola had a solid 2019 debut and continued that into 2020. He has an OBP of at least .342 in his two MLB seasons and now joins a powerful Padres lineup. Taking Nola, albeit early, locks in two very nice OBP assets behind the dish.
17.3 (195) Josh Lindblom, P, MIL - Like my thoughts with Stroman, Lindblom is going too late in drafts. His overall 2020 numbers do not look great, but a look under the hood tells a different story. Lindblom has five pitches with a swinging strike rate of over 10% and four pitches with a CSW of 30% or above. He battled a back injury for most of the season, is working on increasing his spin rates, and will look to a bounceback in a big way in 2021.
18.10 (214) Christian Walker, 1B, ARI - Walker brings 20+ home run upside, decent RBI and R production, with 5-10 steals, and a nice OBP. There is nothing extra flashy about Walker, but a player you can plugin and not look back at the CI position.
19.3 (219) Raimel Tapia, OF, COL - Leadoff batter in Coors sounds good to me. He will not hit a ton of home runs, but has 15+ stolen base upside, should score a ton of runs atop the Rockies order, and brings an OBP around .330.
20.10 (238) Eduardo Rodriguez, P, BOS - I may be bullish on ERod coming off 2020, where he missed the season due to COVID and had some serious health concerns due to COVID. All reports this spring point to ERod being fully healthy, he is ready to throw as many innings as the Red Sox will allow him, and he looked great in his first spring start throwing 2.3 innings. I am willing to take the gamble on ERod’s upside in round 20.
21.3 (243) Yusei Kikuchi, P, SEA - The Mariners will use a 6-man rotation, which will limit his total innings, but the innings he throws should be very, very good. Kikuchi made some significant changes to his pitch mix in 2020, which improved K% from 16.1% to 24.2%, swinging strike % from 8.8% to 12.1%, and HR/9 from 18.8% to 9.4%. Kikuchi should be good for at least 150 innings and help in other pitching categories. Not bad for round 21.
22.10 (262) Peter Fairbanks, P, TB - One of the other fantastic parts of SV/HLD leagues, besides just waiting till the end of drafts for relievers, is the fact of messy closing situations like the Rays now becomes so much more fantasy-friendly. Fairbanks was outstanding last season with a 33% K% through 26.2 innings with a 2.70 ERA. He also made nine postseason appearances, striking out 17 in 12.1 innings while racking up three holds and three saves. He should get plenty of late-game chances once again in 2021, similar to Nick Anderson, but did not cost the high draft price.
23.3 (267) David Fletcher, 2B/SS/3B, LAA - Fletcher is not a sexy pick at all but brings an OBP of .350 or better in back-to-back seasons. He will also leadoff for the Angels, which will be a much more improved lineup. Lastly, he brings something I love so much: the positional flexibility of 2B/SS/3B.
24.10 (286) Ty France, 1B/2B/3B, SEA - France, similar to Fletcher, brings more position flexibility. He also brings a lot more power, improved OBP skills in his first full MLB season, and should hit in the middle of the Mariners lineup. France has the potential to be a top 150 pick in 2022.
25.3 (291) Nate Lowe, 1B, TEX - Lowe has finally been freed from Tampa Bay but still has to prove he can keep the position. He brings 25 home runs upside with a nice OBP. Hitting in the middle of the Rangers lineup should help with RBI production as well. If he keeps the job, he’ll help the fantasy team, but he is also on a short leash and maybe one of my first drops.
26.10 (310) Tanner Rainey, P, WAS - Rainey begins my SV/HLD run to end the draft. I felt Rainey should have been the Nationals closer and should get plenty of late-inning chances. He brings an elite strikeout rate and solid ratios to the staff.
27.3 (315) Tanner Scott, P, BAL - Like Rainey, Scott has late-inning stuff, and I believe he will get his fair share of 9th inning action. The good thing about this format we do not have to wait for that and can enjoy his 27% K% and 58% GB% to lock down some holds.
28.10 (334) Lucas Sims, P, CIN - Sims is battling an elbow injury, but reports look positive for Sims being ready for the season’s start. If healthy, we get a reliever with a 33% K% and some end game upside. If not, he hits the waiver wire.
29.3 (339) Emilio Pagan, P, SD - Pagan has had his fair share of late-inning work, and that should not change this season. The Padres have a deep bullpen with late-inning talent, but we do not need Pagan to throw the ninth to be productive. This format fits Pagan so well.
Final Thoughts
The saying goes that you should always like your draft in a 12 team league. That holds with this team. I am also realistic and know there are some flaws. My third base position is ok, but there were higher hopes before the draft. I believe all offensive stats look good, but my desire to lock in OBP may have hampered my power and steals a bit. I am thrilled with my pitching. I have my three workhorses with some other nice starters. I was then locked in some excellent SV/HLD targets that bring strong strikeout rates and ratios.
It was an honor to partake in this draft, and I am looking forward to the regular season’s grind. I will need to be aggressive early and often on the wire, but in a 12 team league, there will be many options available. Hopefully, come late September, I can write an article about my Tout victory, but for now, good luck to everyone.
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