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As players change teams and rookies are added through the NFL draft, there is a discernable impact on veteran running backs, specifically their projected volume.
The constant turnover in the NFL could result in a running back that saw a high opportunity share one year suddenly become an afterthought.
Here are a handful of running backs set to lose touches in 2021.
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James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
It doesn't get much more obvious than this. The UDFA darling, James Robinson, led all running backs in opportunity share in 2020, and he put up the numbers to show for it. Robinson did nothing to warrant getting replaced, but that's exactly what happens
. Not only did the Jaguars draft Travis Etienne in the first round, but in doing so, they paired him with college teammate Trevor Lawrence. There is simply no universe where Robinson comes anywhere near even a 50% opportunity share this season. He went from an RB1 contender to an RB3 at best. He did not deserve this, but here we are.
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
The Broncos didn't just draft Javonte Williams in the first round, they traded up to get him. Melvin Gordon is in the last year of his contract. We know he's going to be playing somewhere else in 2022. Gordon will open 2021 as the primary back, but it's very possible that the Broncos start transitioning Williams to 1a this season.
Gordon posted a very respectable 62.9% opportunity share last season. Williams is not going to completely vaporize Gordon's value, but he is going to knock it down a peg. Williams will make this a pretty even timeshare relatively quickly. By the second half of the season, Gordon may be seeing 40-50% of the touches.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
While JRob was victimized by poor management and Gordon is just dealing with getting up there in age, Josh Jacobs is going to lose touches this season and absolutely deserve it. Jacobs is incredibly overrated as a talent. He's replacement level. He's fine. He's not special at all. Jacobs' 67.2% opportunity share was 11th-most in the NFL last season. Just researching that number now was a bit surprising because it feels like it was even lower. I had Jacobs in a couple of leagues last year and I remember him constantly coming out for entire drives for Devontae Booker or Jalen Richard.
This year, Jacobs will be sharing time with Kenyan Drake, a far superior talent to Booker or Richard. Drake's two-year, $11 million deal suggests he was not brought in to merely be a change of pace back. He's going to split time with Jacobs. At worst, this should be 60-40 with the potential to be near 50-50. At cost, I'd much rather have Drake than Jacobs this season.
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one I'm the least confident in, just because Bruce Arians is liable to do anything. If you recall, the Bucs appeared to be a week or two away from cutting Leonard Fournette last season before a Ronald Jones injury forced Fournette into action and he took his opportunity and ran with it. Jones touched the ball 220 times last season with 60.2% opportunity share.
With the Bucs bringing Fournette back this season after his magical playoff run en route to a Super Bowl championship, it's very difficult to envision a scenario where Fournette isn't the primary back this season. Giovani Bernard was also signed to take pass-catching work away and further complicate the backfield. RoJo will still have a chance in the event of a Fournette injury, but unless that happens, I'd be surprised if Jones saw more than a 35% opportunity share this season.
Todd Gurley, Free Agent
Someone will probably sign Todd Gurley because he's Todd Gurley, but no one should. Gurley is done. Four years ago, he was the best running back in the NFL. Now, his career is over. Gurley touched the ball 220 times last season. He will be lucky to find a team to give him a quarter of that this season. Don't get sucked in by nostalgia - leave him alone on draft day.
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