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The 2021 MLB is underway and there is a ton of excitement surrounding it! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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Today, we will look at the Dodgers at Cubs, Phillies at Brewers, and Blue Jays at Athletics.
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Dogers@ Cubs
More or Less Contest
Walker Buehler more than 7.5 strikeouts and Kyle Hendricks less than 4.5 strikeouts
Walker Buehler started this season slowly, but has started to round into form as he has 19 strikeouts across his last 13 1/3 innings pitched. He will be facing a Cubs team that is currently striking out at a 26.6% clip against right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks ninth-worst in the league over that span. This number is set too low after Beuhler's last two starts and he should be able to get more than 7.5 strikeouts in this one.
The Dodger's K rate has dropped significantly over the previous week and are now just striking out at a rate of 23.7% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which has them ranked in the top half of the league over that span. Hendricks has only gone over this total twice, and both were against the free-swinging Brewers. This Dodger team will be more patient at the plate with their 12.9% walk rate and will make it very difficult for Hendricks to go over the total.
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Brewers @ Phillies
More or Less Contest
Vincent Velasquez less than 6.5 strikeouts and Adrian Houser more than 3.5 strikeouts
Velasquez will get another start for the Phillies in this one but has yet to make it through five innings in any of his previous starts. This strikeout total seems incredibly high given that he has yet to reach even six strikeouts in any start this season. The Brewers have also reduced their K rate recently and are only striking out at a rate of 23.9% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which has them ranked in the top half of the league. This number would be more understandable a week ago when the Brewers were near the top of the league in strikeouts against right-handers, but they have been better and Velasquez has not shown the stamina to go deep enough to get seven just yet.
Houser struck out seven Marlins in his last start and will now be facing a Phillies team that is striking out at a rate of 26.7% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks eighth-worst in baseball. They are also posting just a wRC+ mark of 71, which ranks fourth-worst in baseball over the previous 10 days. Houser should be able to last long enough to get four strikeouts in this one as he has made it at least five innings in three of his five starts. Even if it were to be a short outing for Houser, four strikeouts could still be achievable.
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Blue Jays @ Athletics
More or Less Contest
Steven Matz more than 5.5 strikeouts and Frankie Montas less than 5.5 strikeouts
While Matz has only gone over this total in two of his five starts this season, he has faced some teams that hit lefties pretty well in the Angels, Nationals, and Royals. Now, he gets the A's who are striking out at a rate of 29.9% vs. left-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks fifth-worst in baseball over that span.
The Blue Jays have been solid against righties over the previous 10 days as they are posting a K rate of just 22.5%, which has them ranked 11th-best in baseball. Montas has only managed to strike out six or more once this season and it came against the Detroit Tigers who have been one of the worst teams in the league against right-handers thus far.
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