RADIO
In my first two articles, I highlighted running back stats and wide receiver stats you need to know before Draft Day. Next up, and the final article of the three-part series, tight ends.
Below are some tweets of mine that are filled with tight end stats you need to know prior to drafting your fantasy football teams in 2021. I'll explain what these stats mean and how to interpret the information to gain a competitive advantage over your league-mates this season.
Let's dive right into some tight ends stats!
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Can T.J. Hockenson Become an Elite Tight End?
Hockenson enters his third season in the NFL, but Year Three could look much different than Years One and Two. Instead of being second or third in the pecking order, Hockenson could (and should) easily lead this Lions team in targets. He no longer has to contend with Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. for targets. Instead, he'll be competing with the likes of journeymen Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams, along with rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown.
While new Lions quarterback Jared Goff might be a downgrade for the offense as a whole, it's certainly not a bad thing for Hockenson. Goff targeted his Rams tight ends (Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett) the fifth-most of any team the last two seasons. When Everett missed time at the tail-end of the 2019 season, Goff turned Higbee into an elite TE1 option, averaging 8.6 receptions and 104.4 yards on 11.2 targets per game. And so far in training camp, Goff and Hockenson seem to have quite the connection.
The Lions also project to throw the ball more this season than they did last season. New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn had the Chargers ranked first in plays per game last season with 70.4. Under the former regime (Matt Patricia and Darrell Bevell) in 2020, the Lions ranked just 28th in plays per game with 61.9. Detroit not only figures to play at a more uptempo pace, but they also figure to be playing from behind quite a bit this season, which should naturally mean lots of pass attempts in negative game scripts. Hockenson, along with pass-catching tailback D'Andre Swift, figures to benefit the most from this style of play. You should give him a long, hard look in fantasy drafts this season after Travis Kelce and Darren Waller come off the board.
Has the Torch Officially Been Passed to Dallas Goedert in Philadelphia?
For what it's worth, Eagles beat writer Jimmy Kempski remains convinced the Eagles will trade Zach Ertz before the start of the regular season. That makes a lot of sense right now, especially as converted tight end Tyree Jackson continues to shine in training camp. A 30-year old Ertz would cost the Eagles $8.5M to keep him on the roster this season. While he's been a staple in this offense for the better part of eight years, it makes a lot of sense to move him for some draft capital before he walks in free agency in 2022.
Even if for some reason the Eagles don't move on from Ertz, Dallas Goedert seems primed to take over as the featured tight end in this Philadelphia offense. The offense will undoubtedly be different this season with a new quarterback, new head coach, and new offensive coordinator, but Goedert is still likely to be fed. He had 6+ targets in eight of nine full games played last season.
But if Ertz is moved, Goedert's stock goes to the moon. He rarely came off the field when Ertz was out last season, playing on 95% of the snaps in those four games. Per PlayerProfiler, he averaged 34.3 routes run in those games without Ertz as opposed to 26.5 in games Ertz played. That's a sizeable difference, and one Goedert should be able to take advantage of in 2021.
If all that doesn't get you excited about the prospects of Dallas Goedert this season, let NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah help you out. He was recently at Eagles training camp and noted, "[Jalen] Hurts will lean heavy on TEs." And if that's not enough...
Tyler Higbee Primed to Breakout Sans Gerald Everett?
Gerald Everett is now a member of the Seattle Seahawks and 2020 fourth-round pick Brycen Hopkins didn't see a single target last season. That leaves Tyler Higbee alone atop the Rams' depth chart at tight end.
The tweet above is a reminder of how he was utilized as the only pass-catching tight end when Everett didn't play. It's a small sample size, but the consistency cannot be ignored. During those five games, Higbee never played on less than 85% of the snaps and never caught fewer than seven passes. He also saw 11 or more targets in four of the five games.
Things can certainly change from year to year, but it's clear the Rams are comfortable with Higbee as their primary pass-catching tight end, at least in 2021. Hopkins won't command many targets after not being targeted at all last season, and 2021 fourth-round pick Jacob Harris is still learning the position after spending his collegiate career as a wide receiver.
Higbee is one of my favorite tight ends to target late in fantasy football drafts with a current Average Draft Position (ADP) of 143.7 or TE16 per FantasyDataNFL.
There should be lots of opportunities for Higbee both at the second level and in the red zone this season.
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