RADIO
If you've followed me (@FAmmiranteTFJ) on Twitter, you'll know that I love to fire off my opinions and engage in debate, especially when it's about a hot take.
There's nothing I enjoy more than debating about fantasy sports, especially football. It's the main reason why I started my Twitter account and joined the fantasy industry.
The time has come to share my four favorite hot takes with our beloved readers here at RotoBaller. I hope they come in handy and help guide you to a fantasy football championship!
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Jonathan Taylor finishes as a Top-Five RB, outscoring Ezekiel Elliott
At the start of the offseason, I proudly proclaimed my affinity for Jonathan Taylor, aggressively ranking him as the overall RB1, even shouting out my bold claim on SiriusXM RotoBaller Radio with Scott Engel (@scotteTheKing) and Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio). I've come to realize that this was an overly optimistic take, but I've remained above consensus on Taylor. I expect the second-year pro to finish as a top-five running back this season.
Taylor got off to a slow start in his rookie season, ranking as RB24 in PPR points per game from Weeks 1-9. From that point forward, he absolutely erupted:
Jonathan Taylor rushed for 741 yards and seven touchdowns in his last six games.
That would put him on a season-long pace of 1,976 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns.
(@RotoViz)
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 26, 2021
Taylor finished as RB4 in PPR PPG (among RBs with at least six games) from Weeks 10-17. This type of rookie production put Taylor in elite company:
Jonathan Taylor put up the fifth-highest PPR PPG for a 21-year old RB since 2000.
Only Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Clinton Portis, and Maurice Jones-Drew had higher averages.
This is elite early career production. Ignore it at your own peril.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 17, 2021
During this dominant stretch, Taylor demonstrated why he was considered the best pure runner in the 2020 running back class:
There were four RBs with 35 or more 10+ yard runs last season:
Derrick Henry: 48 on 378 ATT
Dalvin Cook: 46 on 312 ATT
Nick Chubb: 39 on 190 ATT
Jonathan Taylor: 38 on 232 ATTPrioritize explosive runners.
(@PFF)
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 1, 2021
Simply put, this is a special runner. He plays behind one of the best offensive lines in football, with PFF ranking the Indianapolis Colts second, behind the Cleveland Browns. I'm not worried about Nyheim Hines, as Taylor out-touched him 130-to-54 in the final six games of the season. Marlon Mack isn't too much of a concern, as he's coming off a torn Achilles and should act solely as insurance if Taylor misses time.
Taylor also addressed criticisms about his receiving ability, catching 36-of-39 targets for 299 yards and a touchdown. Taylor is currently being drafted as RB11 (16.2 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues. Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson are expected to return earlier from injury, so we shouldn't worry too much about Taylor. Buy the dip on this special player because:
Jonathan Taylor is Nick Chubb, but with higher receiving upside and without a former Pro Bowl RB behind him.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 22, 2021
Clyde Edwards-Helaire finishes outside the Top-19 RBs, outscored by David Montgomery
There's a lot to like about the guy we call CEH. He has first-round draft capital, playing for a head coach in Andy Reid who helped Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, and Kareem Hunt put up elite fantasy seasons. He plays in one of the most explosive offenses of all time. The Chiefs have an improved offensive line with the additions of Orlando Brown and Joe Thuney, ranked seventh by PFF. Le'Veon Bell is no longer with the team, which could allow CEH to return to the high volume he saw before they signed Bell. However, I have my fair share of concerns.
My issue with CEH is that everyone is ignoring warning signs:
- Scaled back workload in rookie season
- Extreme pass-heavy offense
- Mahomes doesn't target RBs too much
- Chiefs pursued veteran pass-catching RB Gio Bernard before settling on Jerick McKinnonHe's not a bellcow.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 21, 2021
Let's first address his scaled-back workload following Bell's arrival following Week 6.
- Weeks 1-6: 6 games, 66.11% snaps, 31 TGT (5.17 per game), 107 ATT (17.83 per game), 18 RZ ATT
- Weeks 7-17: 7 games, 53.02% snaps, 24 TGT (3.43 per game), 74 ATT (10.57 per game), 10 RZ ATT
Usually, we see rookie running backs see their volume increase as the season progresses. This happened with almost every single 2020 rookie, including Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, D'Andre Swift, Antonio Gibson, and J.K. Dobbins. The opposite was true for CEH. It's concerning that the team signed a veteran like Bell because it shows an unwillingness to trust CEH in a bell-cow role.
The next issue is that the Chiefs are extremely pass-heavy. According to RotoViz, the Chiefs passed on 60% of their plays in neutral game scripts, which tied for fifth-most in the NFL. While CEH is a good receiver, Patrick Mahomes has not targeted his running backs at a high rate throughout his career:
Patrick Mahomes: RB TGT per game
Kareem Hunt: 3.18
Damien Williams: 3.36
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 4.152020:
Alvin Kamara: 7.13
J.D. McKissic: 6.88
Austin Ekeler: 6.5
Nyheim Hines: 4.81
Ezekiel Elliott: 4.73Mahomes doesn't target his RBs as much as we'd like him to.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 16, 2021
Jerick McKinnon is a good pass-catcher out of the backfield and could cut into CEH's usage in the passing game:
Jerick McKinnon had a 3.4 average depth of target last season.
That ranked 2nd among RBs with at least 30 targets, behind David Johnson.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 1, 2021
CEH also simply wasn't very efficient as a runner last year:
CEH ran for 33 yards below expectation as a rookie.
Only 2 RB with Top-24 ADP were worse:
Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon.
(@PFF)
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 31, 2021
He wasn't explosive either:
CEH's longest run was 31 yards.
That ranked 55th among RBs.He had only three 20+ yard runs.
That tied for 32nd in the NFL.— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 1, 2021
We also saw him play a minimal role, even in fantastic game scripts. In a 35-9 win over the Jets, CEH put up six carries for 21 yards and caught three targets for 10 yards. In a 33-31 win over the Panthers, CEH was limited to five carries for 14 yards and three catches for 20 yards and a touchdown. This is a player who sometimes gets phased out of the offense. I understand that the situation looks mouth-watering, but I think we're overrating CEH as a player and letting him off the hook despite some red flags during his rookie season. Currently being drafted as RB14 (23.4 ADP) in Underdog leagues, I think he's totally overvalued.
Chris Godwin finishes as a Top-12 WR, outscoring Terry McLaurin
Chris Godwin is currently getting no respect from the fantasy community. It's like everyone has forgotten how dominant he was back in 2019. They're putting too much stock into the presence of a 33-year old Antonio Brown.
Chris Godwin had surgery on his broken index finger right before Antonio Brown arrived.
Godwin had an injury designation for this injury from Weeks 9-14.
W9-14:
WR34 in PPR PPG
5 GM, 34 TGT, 26 REC, 308 YDS, 1 TDW15-17:
WR8 in PPR PPG
3 GM, 21 TGT, 14 REC, 253 YDS, 5 TD— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 14, 2021
Godwin is currently being drafted as WR19 (40.5 ADP), making him an absolute gift right now:
Chris Godwin consistently produces efficient catch rates on deep yards per target.
He's one year removed from a WR2 overall finish in PPR PPG.
Godwin played injured, but he still finished as WR15 in 2020.
He's still only 25.
ADP: WR19
Godwin is being drafted at his floor.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 6, 2021
Let's address the first point here: Godwin consistently produces efficient catch rates on deep yards per target. Catch rate is the percentage of targets that are caught. A higher yards per target means that the player is being targeted deeper downfield. It's more difficult to produce a strong catch-rate with a high yards per target because deeper passes are harder to catch. Despite this, Godwin has consistently ranked among the league leaders in both categories.
According to Stathead:
- 2020: 10 Yards per TGT (8th), 77.4% Catch Rate (5th)
- 2019: 11.02 Yards per TGT (4th), 71.1% Catch Rate (20th)
*at least 70 targets
This is a player who is firmly in his prime as the WR1 in one of the best offenses in the NFL. We don't need to worry about Tom Brady because he's showing no signs of decline:
Tom Brady's average throw depth was 8.6 yards in his first year with the Bucs.
His last year with the Patriots: 7.1 yards.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 13, 2021
Brady can still be effective throwing the ball downfield, something he was asked to do much more frequently with the Bucs. Godwin is undervalued right now and looks poised for a bounce-back season.
Jerry Jeudy finishes as a Top-22 WR, outscoring Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase
Jeudy put up a solid rookie season, catching 52-of-113 targets for 856 yards and three touchdowns, but it didn't translate as well to fantasy, where finished as WR51 in PPR PPG (among WRs with at least 10 games). However, we need to acknowledge this impressive rookie production:
Don't let a few drops make you ignore that Jerry Jeudy put up the 10th-most receiving yards for a 21 year old since 1990. pic.twitter.com/uKrcC4IidP
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) February 17, 2021
He was able to separate at will:
Jerry Jeudy had a perfectly fine rookie season:
113 TGT, 52 REC, 856 YDS, 3 TD
Don't let that be masked by a stacked rookie class.
He had issues with drops, but he also created separation consistently.
Go buy him in dynasty.
Steal him in your redraft. pic.twitter.com/Z15jQLBXbb
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) January 8, 2021
Jeudy's proficiency at beating man coverage was highly impressive for a rookie. According to Matt Harmon's Reception Perception, Jeudy's 75 percent success rate against man coverage graded in the 87th-percentile in Reception Perception history. That's incredible for a 21-year old.
We also need to consider the team context here. The Denver Broncos project to have one of the best defenses in the NFL this season. They get pass-rusher Von Miller back. They signed cornerbacks Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby to go along with their first-round selection Patrick Surtain II. They have a defensive-minded head coach in Vic Fangio. What does this mean for Jeudy? It means that Teddy Bridgewater is the better fit at quarterback because he can protect the football and move the chains, unlike gunslinger Drew Lock.
According to Reception Perception and Sports Info Solutions:
Let's quantify DEN QB-WR:
Lock is a gunslinger.
Bridgewater is a game manager.Average Throw Depth
Lock: 8.8 (1st)
Bridgewater: 6.8 (28th)Sutton excels at contested catches.
Contested Catch Rate
Sutton: 84.6% (7th)Jeudy gets open.
Success vs. Man
Jeudy: 75% (20th)— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 13, 2021
If Bridgewater starts as I expect, Jeudy will become his number-one target. He has a good chance at putting up a season similar to another route-running technician who struggles with drops in Pittsburgh:
Jerry Jeudy will be the 2021 version of Diontae Johnson.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) February 23, 2021
Jeudy is currently being drafted as WR29 (58.8 ADP) in Underdog leagues. While his price has increased dramatically over the past few months, you still need to capitalize on this buying opportunity.
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