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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 3 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Week 2 was another jam-packed week of action, but it's already time for Week 3!
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills
Matchups We Love:
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Diggs has put up 258 air yards (8th) with a 28.21% target share (11th), so don't worry about the fact that he's only caught 13-of-21 targets for 129 yards and one touchdown in his first two games. Washington's defense ranks 16th in pass DVOA so far, a disappointing start for a front-seven loaded with first-rounders. Washington gave up big games to Keenan Allen (13 TGT, 9 REC, 100 YDS), Mike Williams (12 TGT, 8 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD), and Sterling Shepard (10 TGT, 9 REC, 94 YDS). Diggs remains an elite WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS)
Heinicke is in a tough spot on the road against a Bills defense that ranks 3rd in pass DVOA, limiting opposing passers to only 4.87 yards per attempt. Washington's offensive line has struggled in pass protection (-30% according to PFF). It's going to be tough for Heinicke to get much done against this Bills defense, which keeps him as a desperation play in SuperFlex formats.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
Thomas has caught 8-of-10 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown in two games, but his target share (15.38%) has decreased by almost four percent so far. That's because Washington has added other skill players like Dyami Brown and Adam Humphries. The Bills also have athletic linebacker Trey Edmunds, who could make life difficult for Thomas in this one. In a game where Heinicke will likely struggle, it's tough to like any of his ancillary targets, like Thomas.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, BUF)
Sanders has shown signs of life with 243 air yards (only 15 fewer than Diggs), but this is an underachieving Washington defense that should bounce back in the foreseeable future, perhaps even this game. It's tough to like any of the Bills wideouts aside from Diggs with the early struggles we're seeing out of this offense so far. Sanders is already a fringe option in deeper leagues, so you can leave him on the bench here.
Other Matchups:
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Gibson totaled only 15 opportunities in Week 2, a significant decrease from the 25 that he saw in Week 1. J.D. McKissic's increased role on Thursday night was a nuisance for anyone who rosters Gibson, but it's likely that we saw reduced usage for the second-year back since it was a short week. Gibson now takes on a Bills defense that ranks 7th in run DVOA, so it's not an easy matchup, but I'd expect more usage this time around. McKissic will continue to see a role in two-minute drills.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin had a big game in a tough matchup against Giants' corner James Bradberry, catching 11-of-14 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. It was nice to see him get peppered with targets after totaling only four in Week 1. McLaurin has another tough matchup against Tre'Davious White and company, but the volume should be there to allow for a WR2 performance. The third-year wideout now leads the team with a 31.82% target share.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen has been a massive disappointment for two weeks, completing only 56 percent of his passes with only 5.3 yards per attempt. While the Washington defense has yielded 7.42 yards per attempt (17th), this is a defense that should be better than it's shown so far. We need to downgrade Allen until he finds his groove, as it's not out of the realm of possibility that we'll look back at his 2020 season as a clear outlier. While you should still consider Allen has a mid-tier QB1, we can't look at him as an elite option right now.
Devin Singletary (RB, BUF)
Singletary has been pretty impressive in two games, totaling 154 rushing yards on 24 carries (6.4 YPC) while adding five receptions for 17 yards. Zack Moss played only 27.69% of the snaps in Week 2 after being a healthy scratch in Week 1, so we need to consider this Singletary's backfield for the time being. Washington ranks 21st in run DVOA this season. Singletary has some FLEX appeal with Washington likely focusing on slowing down this Bills' passing attack.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
Beasley is a low average target depth slot receiver who could rack up receptions in this game against a tough defense that looks to improve from a slow start. While obviously Diggs is the preferred option in this offense, Beasley has some WR3/FLEX appeal in PPR leagues, especially with the way Keenan Allen and Sterling Shepard performed against this defense. Gabriel Davis is the clear-cut WR4 here, so he's not worth playing in this one.
Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson is coming off a huge fantasy game against the Chiefs where he rushed for 107 yards and two touchdowns, demonstrating the major impact that he can make on the ground. He takes on a Lions defense that ranks 32nd in pass DVOA and 29th in rush DVOA, so there should be limited resistance in this game. Jackson is an elite QB1 with a terrific combination of floor and upside in this spot.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Hollywood Brown continues to perform at a high level. Dating back to last season, he's combined for 49 receptions, 716 yards, and eight touchdowns in his last 10 games (includes postseason). He takes on a Lions defense that allowed big games to Deebo Samuel (9 REC, 189 YDS, 1 TD) and Davante Adams (8 REC, 121 YDS). They lost corner Jeffrey Okudah for the season and now rookie corner Ifeatu Melifonwu is out. Brown looks like a rock-solid WR2 in this smash spot.
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
Swift saw disappointing usage in the Monday night loss to the Packers, totaling only 13 opportunities, but this is a projected shootout with a 49.5-point total. Swift has almost doubled Jamaal Williams' snap count in each of the team's two games this season. The second-year back is also second on the team with 16 targets, behind T.J. Hockenson. Swift should be able to rack up check-downs while the Lions try to keep pace with the Ravens here. It'll also help the running game with stud run defender Brandon Williams out for this game, as he was placed on the COVID reserve list.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson is living up to the hype so far, catching 16-of-20 targets for 163 yards and two touchdowns. His 20.88% target share ranks 3rd among tight ends. The Ravens gave up big games to Darren Waller (19 TGT, 10 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD) and Travis Kelce (8 TGT, 7 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD), so we could see another strong performance for Hockenson. This Ravens defense simply does not look imposing right now, so continue to fire Hockenson up as a Top-4 tight end.
Matchups We Hate:
Jamaal Williams (RB, DET)
Williams is a good pass-blocker and capable pass-catcher, but his lack of big-play ability makes this a tough spot against a Ravens defense that ranks 9th in run DVOA. Sooner or later, the Lions have to realize that Swift is their most explosive player on this offense, which will cost Williams some touches. I think that we'll see Swift play more of a role than Williams in this spot. Let's not forget that Monday night was against his former team.
Other Matchups:
Ty'Son Williams (RB, BAL)
Williams has been efficient this season, carrying 22 times for 142 yards (6.5 YPC) while catching 5-of-6 targets for 45 yards. He's the lead back in Baltimore, but he'll have to cede a few red-zone touches to Latavius Murray (three red-zone attempts, two touchdowns). Williams (48.68%) out-snapped Murray (35.53%) in Week 2, so that's a good sign. Consider the rookie an upside FLEX against a Lions defense that has given up 4.78 YPC (27th) to running backs this season. Murray is just a touchdown-dependent desperation FLEX.
Sammy Watkins (WR, BAL)
Watkins has caught 8-of-15 targets for 140 yards as a Raven, clearly demonstrating that he'll have a larger role here than he did in Kansas City. The veteran wideout has posted 7+ targets in each of his two games, which is a good sign for his value going forward, at least until rookie Rashod Bateman returns from injury. Like Brown, Watkins has a fantastic matchup here. He's got some WR3 appeal in this spot. You can also use him in DFS as a pivot play to the more popular Brown.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews has gotten off to a slow start, as he's taken a backseat to Brown and Watkins. Andrews has posted an 18.52% target share, which ranks third on the team. This comes after many expected the talented tight end to be the main target in this offense, so it's been a surprising start to say the least. Having said that, Andrews still ranks 5th among tight ends in target share. The big games are coming soon, perhaps as soon as this week. Continue to fire him up as a Top-6 tight end.
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff has a QB3 and QB15 finish this season, so it's clear that we slept on his fantasy value coming into the season. The volume should be there all year while the Lions play catch-up in most of their games this year. The Ravens have been more susceptible to the pass this season, ranking 24th in pass DVOA while allowing 8.94 yards per attempt (25th). Don't be surprised if the veteran approaches the Top-15 at his position once again.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
Matchups We Love:
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
Ridley (22.5% target share) is not seeing the massive volume we expected so far, but it was good to see him catching 7-of-10 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs. The big plays haven't been there yet, as evidenced by his 9.5 yards per reception, down from 15.3 in 2020, but we could see them this week. The Giants rank 23rd in pass DVOA and have given up big games to Terry McLaurin (14 TGT, 11 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD) and Jerry Jeudy (7 TGT, 6 REC, 72 YDS before leaving early with an injury. Ridley should see enough volume to provide strong production here.
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Jones is off to a terrific start this season, completing 63.8% of his passes for 7.5 yards per attempt with zero interceptions. He's also added 122 yards on 15 carries on the ground. Jones has finished as QB14 and QB4 this season, demonstrating the impact of his rushing upside. He now takes on a Falcons defense that has allowed big games to Jalen Hurts (QB6) and Tom Brady (QB3). Fire up Jones with confidence as a QB1 in this spot.
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
The Giants appear ready to turn Barkley loose after allowing him to play 84.06% of the snaps in a short week on Thursday Night Football. That's perfect timing because he now gets to take on a Falcons defense that ranks 27th in run DVOA. We can start to expect the touches to come close to the snap count this time around. Look for Barkley to turn in his first Top-12 performance of the season in this exploitable matchup.
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
Shepard has established himself as the top wideout on this team, catching 16-of-19 targets for 207 yards and a touchdown while leading the team with a 27.94% target share. Shepard's separation skills have allowed him to become Daniel Jones' preferred target. This is a smash spot against a Falcons defense that ranks 27th in pass DVOA. Look for Shepard to continue racking up short-to-intermediate receptions in this one. Falcons corner A.J. Terrell is out for this game, which will also help Shepard.
Matchups We Hate:
Mike Davis (RB, ATL)
Davis has turned in RB32 and RB18 finishes in PPR formats so far this season, but it's troubling to see Cordarelle Patterson start to emerge in this backfield. Part of Davis' appeal was his projected bellcow role, but what we're seeing is essentially a 65-35 split, which really limits Davis' upside. The Falcons offense has not been good so far this year, so it's tough to recommend Davis as anything more than a FLEX play, even against a Giants defense that ranks 30th in run DVOA. Davis needs to rack up receptions to stay relevant and Patterson (six targets last week) is eating into that usage.
Other Matchups:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Ryan has really struggled without longtime target Julio Jones, averaging only 5.7 yards per attempt with QB30 and QB16 finishes on the season. However, this is a good matchup against a Giants defense that just gave up 336 yards and a 73.2% completion rate to Taylor Heinicke. The other good news is that Ryan has attempted 35 and 46 passes in two games, so the volume is there if he can ever find his efficiency. He's a lukewarm play here.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Pitts has caught 9-of-14 targets for 104 yards so far, but he hasn't had a spike week yet, which is why we haven't heard much hype. Don't worry because this is an absolute stud who's getting nice usage, playing 73.61% of his snaps with a 17.5% target share. It was encouraging to see Pitts put up five receptions for 73 yards against a tough Bucs' defense. Consider him a Top-6 tight end in another exploitable matchup.
Kenny Golladay (WR, NYG)
Golladay has caught only 7-of-14 targets for 102 yards, but he leads the team with 213 air yards. Golladay has the ability to win downfield and haul in a contested catch, which gives him a chance for a breakout performance against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL here. I like Golladay as an upside WR3 in this spot, but there's also a risk that it's more of a Sterling Shepard week, or perhaps even Darius Slayton gets loose deep.
Additional Notes:
Giants TE Evan Engram is expected to return to the lineup this week. Monitor his usage, but it's tough to start him in his return. Rookie WR Kadarius Toney is also off the injury report heading into Week 3, but is not a recommended play.
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Matchups We Love:
It's hard to get excited about any matchup in this spot, as the game has a 42-point total.
Matchups We Hate:
Jameis Winston (QB, NO)
Winston has a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that ranks 2nd in pass DVOA and just picked off rookie Zach Wilson four times. The Saints are playing at the seventh-slowest pace in the NFL right now, a far cry from the Drew Brees explosive offenses that we used to watch and love. While Winston threw five touchdowns against the Packers, he only attempted 20 passes in that game. He struggled mightily against the Panthers and we could see more of the same here.
Marquez Callaway (WR, NO)
Callaway has been an absolute ghost so far this season, catching 3-of-6 targets for 22 yards. It's hard to see the second-year wideout get on track in this one with how good the Patriots pass defense has been. Until we start to see a game-script where the Saints are forced to air it out, Callaway needs to be left on your bench or even cut loose to the waiver wire. Callaway has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far.
Saints TEs
Adam Trautman is the preferred option here, as he's out-snapped Juwan Johnson 70.48% to 28.57%, but it's hard to even consider any of these players aside from DFS tournaments for salary relief. The Saints are simply not throwing the ball enough to justify starting any of their pass-catchers right now. Leave both of these players on your waiver wire, but keep an eye out in case we see an injury.
Mac Jones (QB, NE)
Jones is attempting nearly 35 passes per game, but he's only averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. He's going to be a low-upside game-manager for much of his rookie season. That's bad news against a Saints' defense that ranks 12th in pass DVOA with only 6.93 yards per attempt allowed this season. While Jones could see an uptick in volume given how strong this Saints' run defense is, I still can't recommend him as a streamer in this projected low-scoring affair.
Patriots RBs
Damien Harris has been impressive this season, rushing 39 times for 162 yards (4.2 YPC) and one touchdown. He's also caught 3-of-4 targets for 19 yards. The problem is that he takes on a Saints defense that ranks 3rd in run DVOA. This profiles more as a James White game, as he's the primary pass-catcher, having hauled in 12-of-13 targets for 94 yards this season. Having said that, it's hard to like either of these players against such a good defense.
Other Matchups:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara had an awful game against the Panthers last week, limited to five yards on eight attempts while catching 4-of-6 targets for 25 yards. We've yet to see Kamara make much of an impact in the passing game with Winston under center, which is concerning for his value moving forward. While the Pats rank 23rd in run DVOA, we've seen how Bill Belichick has taken away his opponent's best weapon. Just look at what they did to Corey Davis last week. Consider Kamara a low-end RB1 in this spot.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Meyers leads the team in both air-yard share (33.14%) and target share (22.73%), making him the most reliable option against a Saints defense that just gave up a solid game to D.J. Moore (11 TGT, 8 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD). The Pats are likely to have difficulties running the ball in this one, so we could see more short targets to Meyers underneath as the safety valve for Jones. Meyers is the best fantasy play on this Patriots offense.
Patriots TEs
Jonnu Smith (63.16% snaps, 15.15% target share) and Hunter Henry (75.94% snaps, 10.61% target share) continue to eat into each other's value. Smith (2.5 average depth of target) looks like the preferred target underneath with the team hoping to take advantage of his ability to rack up yards after the catch. Henry (8.9 average depth of target) gets the downfield targets. You can use either as a streamer at the thinnest position in fantasy football, but it's a risky play. They stay in the lukewarm section because the Pats will likely have to pass more here.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Matchups We Love:
There are no matchups to love in this spot. The Steelers defense looks elite and the Bengals have an improved unit.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Burrow had a disappointing performance against the Bears, averaging only 6.9 yards per attempt while throwing three interceptions. The Bengals are only passing on 50% of their plays in neutral game scripts, which ranks 27th in the NFL. The team looks like they're easing Burrow back from his torn ACL, so the volume is unlikely to be there to help overcome this Steelers pass-rush that has put up a 36% pressure rate with the Bengals at -45% pass-blocking (PFF).
Other Matchups:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon had a slow game against the Bears last week, but he still put up 22 opportunities. He has a very tough matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks 4th in run DVOA, so we can expect another inefficient game in this one. However, with this type of volume, Mixon is virtually matchup-proof. Fire him up every week and enjoy your RB1 usage. Perhaps he can overcome any potential inefficiency with a touchdown or some checkdown receptions.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Chase has gotten off to a fantastic start, catching 7-of-11 targets for 155 yards and two touchdowns, both over 40+ yards. He leads the team with 196 air yards as well as a 17.8 average depth of target. The problem here is that the Bengals could really struggle with this Steelers' pass-rush, which will make it difficult for Burrow to find Chase downfield. This looks like a bad spot for the rookie. However, Tee Higgins is doubtful for this game, which keeps Chase in the lukewarm section.
Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)
Boyd had a bounce-back game last week, catching 7-of-9 targets for 73 yards, and while it's tough to bank on a low aDOT slot receiver (4.9) when there are two other supremely talented options on this team, Boyd could theoretically get more work in this game. You're likely going to see Burrow forced to get rid of the ball quickly, peppering Boyd with some underneath targets in the slot.
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
Roethlisberger had a better game against the Raiders, completing 27-of-40 passes for 295 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He takes on a Bengals defense that ranks 15th in pass DVOA, so they're a bit more exploitable through the air. On the other hand, they've only allowed 6.4 yards per attempt, which ranks 6th in the NFL. Still, look for the Steelers to move the ball through the air in this one, as the Bengals' run defense has been very strong so far.
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Harris continues to receive RB1 usage with massive volume, leading the NFL in running back snap percentage with 97.37%. While he's coming off a strong game against the Raiders, he was once again inefficient on the ground, averaging only 3.8 YPC. We can project another inefficient game on the ground, as the Bengals rank 2nd in run DVOA. However, Harris gets a ton of work in the passing game (eight targets this season), so he's also pretty much matchup-proof.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)
JuJu has been pretty solid so far this season, catching 10-of-15 targets for 93 yards but with only 9.3 yards per reception. He continues to have a low aDOT (4.5), which really caps his upside. The good news is that he's put up a 20.83% target share, which gives him a solid weekly floor. Expect JuJu to get peppered with underneath targets since Johnson is out for this game.
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)
Claypool has been disappointing through the first two games, catching 6-of-14 targets for 115 yards. While he leads the team in air yards (255) and aDOT (18.2), he's a clear third in target share (19.44%). Having said that, the second-year wideout is an absolute playmaker. He has the highest weekly ceiling in this offense and it's only a matter of time before he gets loose deep. There's a chance that it's this week against the Bengals, especially with Johnson out.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Matchups We Love:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry showed off his monster ceiling against the Seahawks last week, rushing for 182 yards and three touchdowns on 35 carries. What's most encouraging is that he caught all six of his targets for 55 yards, giving him 10 targets on the season after totaling only 31 last season. If this type of usage continues, Henry has a path to finishing as the overall RB1, even in full-PPR leagues. He has a good matchup in a projected positive game-script (Titans are 5.5-point favorites).
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
Brown had a day to forget in Week 2, catching only 3-of-9 targets for 43 yards against the Seahawks. However, Brown is an absolute stud and these type of players usually bounce-back in a big way after a poor performance. He has a fantastic matchup against a Colts defense that gave up big games to Cooper Kupp (11 TGT, 9 REC, 163 YDS, 2 TD) and Tyler Lockett (5 TGT, 4 REC, 100 YDS, 2 TD). Week 3 is Brown's coming-out party.
Julio Jones (WR, TEN)
Julio had a nice bounce-back in Week 2, catching 6-of-8 targets for 128 yards against the Seahawks. There's a chance that both Titans wideouts go off in this game. The Colts rank 29th in pass DVOA, so this is a smash spot for these two phenomenal receivers. The one risk is that the Titans control this game on the ground with the Colts likely turning to backup quarterback Jacob Eason, but you have to love the matchup in this one.
Matchups We Hate:
Zach Pascal (WR, IND)
Pascal is starting to establish himself as the clear-cut number two and red-zone threat in this offense, catching 9-of-11 targets for 81 yards and three touchdowns this season. The problem here is that if Carson Wentz is forced to miss the game, it's hard to see how more than one wideout can make an impact, even in an exploitable matchup against a Titans defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA. I'd leave Pascal on the bench unless Wentz starts.
Other Matchups:
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Troubling usage for Taylor in Week 2, as the second-year back only played 50.35% of the snaps. The good news is that he continues to get fed in the red-zone, totaling 12 red-zone carries already. While he's yet to rush for a touchdown, this will change as long as he continues to get so much red-zone usage. The Colts need to wake up and realize that JT is their best offensive player and give him as many touches as possible. Until we start to see signs of that, he remains a lukewarm option. Taylor takes on a Titans defense that ranks 24th in run DVOA.
Nyheim Hines (RB, IND)
This game sets up nicely for Hines, since it projects as a negative game script with Wentz likely sidelined. We could see Eason pepper Hines with checkdown targets in this game. Hines was limited to only three opportunities last week, which makes him a risky play, but if you're in a deeper PPR format, I'd be looking at him as a potential sneaky FLEX play. Hopefully, the Colts don't start using Marlon Mack like they did last week because that would make this backfield a real headache.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Pittman turned in a super impressive performance last week, catching 8-of-12 targets for 153 yards. He leads the team with 177 air yards, while the next closest is 69. He also leads the team with a 23.19% target share. Pittman is starting to look like a potential breakout season, establishing themselves as the top option on this team. Even with Eason, this is a great matchup, so we need to keep Pittman on the fantasy radar.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Tannehill looked much better against the Seahawks last week, completing 27-of-40 passes for 347 yards while also rushing for 27 yards. The problem was that he didn't get any touchdowns. That's the risk he poses on a weekly basis, as the team could opt to feed Henry when they get in the red-zone. This profiles as a risky game as well because the Titans could control it with Henry if Wentz sits out. Having said that, the matchup keeps him in the lukewarm section.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Matchups We Love:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Herbert is in a good spot in a projected shootout against the Chiefs with a 55.5-point total. The Chargers will likely need to air it out to keep pace with this high octane offense. The Chargers have passed the ball 65% in neutral game scripts, which ranks 10th in the NFL, so the volume will be there for Herbert in this game. The Chiefs rank 25th in pass DVOA so far this season, making it an exploitable matchup for Herbert.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Ekeler got back on track in the passing game last week, catching all nine of his targets for 61 yards after failing to get targeted in Week 1. Now that he's finally get used in the red-zone (seven red-zone attempts), the sky is the limit for Ekeler this season. He has high upside in this spot with the Chargers projected to pass even more than usual. The Chiefs also rank 32nd in run DVOA, so Ekeler can also do some damage on the ground.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen has gotten off to a strong start this season, catching 13-of-21 targets for 208 yards. He's put up a 24.42% target share, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. Allen goes up against a Chiefs defense that just allowed Marquise Brown to go off for six receptions, 113 yards, and a touchdown. Allen is a rock-solid WR2 each and every week, but in a projected shootout like this, you have to love his ceiling.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
What a fantastic start to the season for Big Mike, as he's caught 15-of-22 targets for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Williams leads the team with a 25.58% target share, which is a huge development considering how highly new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi spoke about him during the offseason. Williams has evolved from a volatile deep threat into a potential target hot in a pass-heavy offense, which makes him an every-week WR2 going forward.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes has turned in QB2 and QB7 finishes so far this season. He's posted an absurd 76.1% of his passes with a 10.1 yards per attempt. While the Chargers defense ranks 18th in pass DVOA, they did just limit Dak Prescott to only 237 yards and one interception. However, this was a game where Prescott only attempted 27 passes, averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. Mahomes is in play for overall QB1 every week and this game is no different.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Hill is coming off a slow game against the Ravens where he caught 3-of-14 for only 14 yards, but this is the kind of volatility that you have to expect from a deep threat like Hill. He has a wider range of outcomes than other elite wideouts. We can expect Mahomes to make it more of an effort to feed Hill in this bounce-back spot. However, the Chargers have performed well against opposing wideouts, limiting them to the second-fewest PPR points per game. Still, Hill is an elite WR1 in this projected shootout.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce just continues to churn out elite production, catching 13-of-15 targets for 185 yards and three touchdowns. He's the overall TE1 each and every week, which reflects his dominance as a player. In one game against the Chargers last year, Kelce caught 9-of-14 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown. Fire him up with confidence like you do each and every week.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
CEH continues to underwhelm after he was hyped once again this offseason. He's coming off a poor game against the Ravens, limited to only 46 yards on 13 carries, including a costly fumble at the end of the game. It's disappointing to see that CEH continues to be underused in the passing game, as his receiving skills were one of his strengths as a prospect. Perhaps he can get it going against a Chargers defense that ranks 28th in rush DVOA, but we have to keep him in the lukewarm section due to his volatile usage.
Mecole Hardman (WR, KC)
Hardman is coming off a solid game against the Ravens where he caught 5-of-8 targets for 55 yards. The eight targets was encouraging for his outlook going forward, but there's a chance that this was because the Ravens were focused on stopping Tyreek Hill. The Chargers are a tough matchup, as they've really limited opposing wideouts this season, so we need to keep Hardman in the lukewarm section even with this potential shootout.
Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Matchups We Love:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray is started off his season with a bang, finishing as overall QB1 in each of his two games. He's completing 73.5% of his passes for 10.1 yards per attempt, adding 51 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Murray is simply a fantasy cheat code right now. He has a great matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 28th in pass DVOA, so there's a good chance that we see another spike week from Kyler.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
Hopkins is coming off a slow game against the Vikings where he caught all four of his targets for 54 yards and a touchdown. This is the risk with Hopkins this season, as the Cardinals' upgrades at wide receiver could result in slower games like this one. However, he should be able to get back on track against a Jaguars defense that just allowed Courtland Sutton to go off for nine receptions and 159 yards.
UPDATE: DeAndre Hopkins will be a game-time decision this week.
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Lawrence has gotten off to a poor start to his NFL career, but there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The Jaguars have played at the second-highest pace as the pass-heaviest team in the NFL in neutral game scripts so far. Once this offense starts to improve, you're going to see a ton of volume here, which bodes well for Lawrence and the pass-catchers. While Arizona ranks 8th in pass DVOA, this game is a projected shootout, so we could see Lawrence airing it out to play catch-up. I absolutely love the rookie this week.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate in this game because we could see fireworks here.
Other Matchups:
Cardinals RBs
Chase Edmonds (9 targets) is the higher upside play because of his work in the passing game, but James Conner (5 red-zone attempts) remains a threat, especially in the red-zone. This caps Edmonds' weekly ceiling. The Jaguars have been much better against opposing running backs, ranking 15th in run DVOA, but this could be a potential positive game script with the Cardinals as 7.5-point favorites.
Rondale Moore (WR, ARI)
Moore exploded last week, catching 7-of-8 targets for 114 yards and a touchdown. His snap rate nearly doubled last week, so it's clear that he's becoming more involved in this offense. Moore is a playmaker with the ball in his hands, able to evade defenders and take it to the house on any play. We have to consider him an upside WR3 with how good he's looked plus how dominant this Cardinals offense is playing right now.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Kirk has put up 60+ yards in each of his two games this season, including two touchdowns in their Week 1 win over the Titans. This is another opportunity for a spike week in an exploitable matchup against the Jaguars. The problem is that it's difficult to determine which Cardinals supporting wideout to target between Kirk, Rondale Moore, and A.J. Green. We have to favour Moore for now because of how dominant he's looked so far. Green will likely become phased out of the offense eventually, as he's clearly the fourth-best wideout on the team. Kirk is a volatile WR with some upside due to his big-play ability.
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
It was encouraging to see Robinson have a better game against the Broncos last week, as he totaled 14 opportunities compared to only 11 in Week 1. Robinson has now out-snapped Carlos Hyde 64.62% to 29.23%, so perhaps the second-year back can find some RB2 value once this offense starts to get in sync. The Cardinals rank 10th in run DVOA so far this season, so this is a tough matchup. Robinson looks like a low-end RB2 this week.
Jaguars WRs
Marvin Jones Jr. continues to establish himself as the top option in this Jaguars passing game. Through two games, he's caught 11-of-20 targets for 132 yards and two touchdowns. D.J. Chark leads the way in air yards, so he has the highest upside of the group, although with more volatility. Keep an eye on Laviska Shenault Jr's status throughout the week, as he injured his shoulder last game. He's a low aDOT slot receiver, so he has less upside, but he does have 17 targets through two games.
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns
Matchups We Love:
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Fields makes his first career start against a Browns defense that ranks 31st in pass DVOA so far this season. Before Tyrod Taylor had to leave last week's game due to injury, he had been shredding the Browns for 125 yards and a touchdown while completing 10-of-11 passes. This isn't an imposing matchup by any means. Fields has massive rushing upside and should hit the ground running as Bears starter.
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
Robinson gets a much-needed boost at quarterback with Andy Dalton now on the shelf, as the veteran wideout had only caught 8-of-15 targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in two games. The Browns' pass defense has not been imposing, allowing Brandin Cooks (14 TGT, 9 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD) and Tyreek Hill (15 TGT, 11 REC, 197 YDS, 1 TD) to go off against them. Look for Robinson to have his best game of the season with Fields.
Matchups We Hate:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
It's hard to love Mayfield in this spot with Jarvis Landry placed on IR and Odell Beckham Jr. likely making his season debut. The Bears rank 9th in pass DVOA while Mayfield has QB27 and QB18 finishes so far this season. This isn't a good matchup to use Mayfield as a streamer. Keep an eye on him throughout the season though because he's showing that he's improved as a passer. Just wait until he gets his full assortment of weapons.
Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)
Hunt has only racked up 23 opportunities in two games this season, making it difficult to trust him as anything more than a desperation FLEX play whenever the Browns have tougher matchups like this one. This is Chubb's backfield, so Hunt can really only be trusted when the Browns either blow a team out or play from behind, since Hunt is the primary passing-down back. I'd avoid Hunt in this spot.
Other Matchups:
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
Montgomery continues to demonstrate his improvements as a runner, as he's averaged 4.7 yards per carry so far this season. He just looks much better on film, showing more elusiveness and explosiveness. He takes on a Browns defense that has been stout against the run, ranking 6th in pass DVOA, but Monty should be helped by Justin Fields. Fields can open up running lanes with his rushing ability, allowing for Monty to go to work. Fire up Monty as an RB2.
Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)
Mooney has gotten off to a solid start to the season, catching 11-of-15 targets for 92 yards. He should also see a boost in value with Fields under center because the rookie quarterback throws a much better deep ball than Andy Dalton. We saw how Tyreek Hill absolutely torched this Browns' secondary, which gives Mooney a chance to get loose downfield in this one. I'll leave Mooney as a lukewarm play due to his volatility, but he looks appealing in this spot.
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Kmet has out-snapped Jimmy Graham 73.85% to 26.92% so far this season, so it's clear that the second-year tight end is atop the pecking order here. While we haven't seen the increased usage translate into production yet (8 TGT, 6 REC, 42 YDS), it's possible that Kmet starts to become more fantasy-relevant with Fields at the helm. Keep an eye on him in this spot, as he could become an appealing waiver wire target with a good game.
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)
Chubb continues to be one of the most efficient runners in the NFL, totaling 178 yards and three touchdowns on only 26 carries (6.8 YPC). The Browns offensive line has established themselves as one of the premier units in the league, so matchup doesn't matter as much for Chubb. Having said that, the Bears have been stout against the run this season, ranking 11th in rush DVOA. Still, the Browns are 7-point favorites here, so it could be a positive game script for Chubb.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, CLE)
Beckham is finally expected to make his Browns' debut in this one and it comes at perfect timing with the team desperately thin at wideout with Jarvis Landry placed on injured reserve. We have seen the Bears give up splash plays so far this season, namely to Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase, so it wouldn't surprise me to see OBJ get loose downfield in his return to action. I'll keep him in the lukewarm section for this week.
Additional Notes:
It's really difficult to start any of the Browns tight ends, since there are three who can make an impact. Austin Hooper gets most of the targets, but David Njoku racks up air yards. Harrison Bryant really muddles this picture, so we need to avoid this situation.
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 PM ET Games
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
Matchups We Love:
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Sutton is coming off a monster game against the Jaguars where he caught 9-of-12 targets for 159 yards. He put up an absurd 258 air yards with a 35.29% target share, so it's clear who the alpha is on this team, especially while Jerry Jeudy is sidelined. Sutton takes on a Jets defense that currently ranks 13th in pass DVOA, but this isn't a matchup to fear given their struggles last year. You can fire up Sutton as a rock-solid WR2 in this spot.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Fant is another Bronco who is going to play a major role in this offense. He's now put up an impressive 20.29% target share, which ranks fourth among tight ends. Fant remains one of the most athletic tight ends in the league and now that he finally has the volume, you have to consider him a high-end tight end. The risk here is that the Broncos go up early and play run-heavy while leading, which could make it tough for two Broncos pass-catchers to approach their ceiling. However, we have to go with Fant as one of the best tight ends on the slate.
Matchups We Hate:
Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ)
Wilson is coming off a disastrous performance against the Patriots where he threw four interceptions. The rookie is now completing only 55.7% of his passes with two touchdowns and five interceptions. The loss of offensive tackle Mekhi Becton has made this offensive line a disaster, which is bad news for Wilson. It doesn't get any easier this week against a Broncos defense that ranks 10th in pass DVOA. He's unstartable in all formats except as a desperation SuperFlex.
Jets RBs
We started to see a transition to Michael Carter in Week 2, as the rookie's snap count jumped from 24.62% to 45.59%. Carter looked good, rushing 11 times for 59 yards with two receptions for 29 yards. He essentially split touches with Ty Johnson, who racked up 12 carries for 50 yards. Veteran Tevin Coleman is now an afterthought in this backfield, limited to only five touches last week. Keep an eye on Carter because he has the talent and draft capital to make an impact once this offense gets on track. Avoid them this week though, as the Broncos run defense is really tough, ranking 8th in rush DVOA.
Other Matchups:
Jets WRs
Corey Davis is coming off a bad game against the Patriots, limited to only two receptions for eight yards. He has another tough matchup against the Broncos, but this defense did allow Sterling Shepard to go off for seven receptions, 113 yards, and a touchdown, so there's some hope for Davis. Elijah Moore showed signs of life last week, catching 4-of-8 targets for 47 yards. The rookie currently leads the team with 205 air yards, so stay the course with him. Once the offense gets going, he'll be able to make an impact.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN)
Bridgewater has gotten off to a fantastic start as a Bronco, completing 77% of his passes while averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. He's not dinking and dunking anymore - he's legitimately airing it out. This is great news for Broncos' skills players as well as the offense as a whole. Bridgewater is on the streaming radar against a vulnerable Jets defense, but the risk is that the Broncos take an early lead and take the air out of the football. This team places at a slow pace, so there's a reasonable chance that this happens. I'd consider Bridgewater a high-end QB2 this week.
Broncos RBs
Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon have shared the role pretty evenly, but it's only a matter of time before the rookie takes over. According to PFF, Williams has already forced 11 missed tackles (4th) with a 41% missed tackle rate (2nd). He's also a good pass protector. This is a great chance for him to get going, as the Broncos are 10.5-point home favorites and the Jets rank 26th in rush DVOA.
Additional Notes:
I wouldn't bother starting WRs Tim Patrick or KJ Hamler right now, especially in a game script like this one, which projects to be run-heavy. It's the Sutton and Fant show in the Denver passing game.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Matchups We Love:
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Waller has been an absolute machine this season, leading tight ends in air yards (268) and target share (29.21%). What's crazy is that the next closest tight end in air yards is T.J. Hockenson with only 138. Waller is going to contend with Travis Kelce for overall TE1 at this rate. He's completely matchup-proof while he's receiving this type of volume. Fire him up and enjoy the ride.
Matchups We Hate:
Jacoby Brissett (QB, MIA)
Brissett gets the call for the Dolphins with Tua on the shelf. The former Colts quarterback did not look good against the Bills in relief, completing 24-of-40 passes for 169 yards (4.2 yards per attempt) and one interception. Perhaps he'll look better after a week of first-team reps, but there's no way you're starting him unless you're completely desperate at quarterback in a SuperFlex league.
Dolphins RBs
The Dolphins backfield has become a messy situation, with Myles Gaskin (24 opportunities) leading the way but sharing with Malcolm Brown (10 opportunities), and Salvon Ahmed (15 opportunities). Gaskin is the preferred option, but you have to hate how Brown is stealing touchdown opportunities (two red-zone carries) and Ahmed is taking away targets (six targets). I'd steer clear of this situation.
Dolphins WRs
Will Fuller makes his return to the lineup, which can be a double-edged sword for the rest of the pass-catchers. On the positive side, Fuller is a fantastic wideout who can completely open up the offense. On the negative side, he's likely to eat into the target share. It remains to be seen how the volume will shake out with Fuller back in the fold, so I'd only consider using Jaylen Waddle or DeVante Parker if I was in a desperate situation. You also have to hate the fact that it will be Jacoby Brissett under center instead of Tua Tagovailoa.
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Carr is absolutely rolling right now, completing over 66 percent of his passes while averaging an absurd 408.5 passing yards per game. This is a tough matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 7th in pass DVOA. This defense just limited Josh Allen to a 51.5 percent completion rate with only 5.4 yards per attempt. While I love the way Carr is playing right now, I don't trust him yet considering what we've seen in the past. I think he has a letdown game in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Raiders RBs
Josh Jacobs looks like he'll be missing another game, which will allow Kenyan Drake to continue to function as the lead back. Last week, Drake had only 13 opportunities, but six of those were targets, which gives him some FLEX appeal in PPR formats. The problem is that Peyton Barber has carved out a role as an interior runner, rushing 13 times for 32 yards. Barber is a plodder, but he really caps Drake's upside.
Raiders WRs
Henry Ruggs looked great in the team's upset win over the Steelers last week, catching 5-of-7 targets for 113 yards, including a 61-yard touchdown. He's the preferred option out of this group, but the Dolphins have limited opposing wideouts to only 6.95 yards per target this season (7th). Bryan Edwards followed up his strong finish in Week 1 with only three receptions for 40 yards on three targets. You can't really trust him at this point.
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings
Matchups We Love:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Wilson continues to play at a ridiculously efficient pace, completing 74.1% of his passes while averaging 11.1 yards per attempt. The problem is that he's only averaging 27 pass attempts per game, but perhaps that is because the Seahawks jumped out to big leads in each of their two games (although they did blow it against the Titans). We'll likely see a close game on the road against a Vikings defense that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA. This game should feature a ton of fireworks and Russ could hit his ceiling here.
Seahawks WRs
Tyler Lockett is absolutely popping off right now, catching 12-of-16 targets for 278 yards and three touchdowns. He gets another mouth-watering matchup against a Vikings defense that has given up 11.54 yards per target to wideouts this season. D.K. Metcalf has gotten off to a slower start in terms of production, but his 30.77% target share is tied with Lockett. There's a good chance that we see Metcalf have a spike week over Lockett in this spot. It's only a matter of time before that happens because it's not like Lockett is out-targeting this third-year beast. Both wideouts are strong WR1s in this potential shootout.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
It's unclear if Cook will be able to play this week, so monitor his status. If he plays, it's just in time to face a Seahawks defense that got gashed on the ground by Derrick Henry last week. Cook is averaging 26 opportunities per game, making him one of the few bellcows remaining in the league. This game has one of the highest totals on the slate, so there's a decent chance that Cook can find the endzone in this spot. We could also see the Vikings opt to go more run-heavy here in attempt to keep this Seahawks offense on the field. Cook is in contention for overall RB1 this week.
Vikings WRs
Adam Thielen continues to show impressive rapport with Kirk Cousins, catching 15-of-17 targets for 131 yards and three touchdowns. Thielen laughs at preseason talk of touchdown regression, as he continues to be peppered with targets in the redzone. This is another smash spot in a shootout against the Seahawks. Like Metcalf, Justin Jefferson has been outproduced by his veteran teammate, but he still leads the team in air yards and target share. It's only a matter of time before we see a spike week and perhaps this is the game. Upstart wideout K.J. Osborn has carved out a role in this passing game, but you have to worry if the Vikings revert back to their run-heavy ways. They're currently passing on 60% of their plays in neutral game scripts so far and are now 0-2. We could see them really run the ball in this one, which adds risk to each of the wideouts, but mostly to Osborn.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate in this game. This has the highest total on the slate with 55.5 points. Expect fireworks.
Other Matchups:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Cousins has been killing it this season, completing 71.6% of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. My concern is that the Vikings have been a run-heavy team every year under head coach Mike Zimmer. We could see them revert back to those ways starting with this game, as the Seahawks just got run over by Derrick Henry. I'd still fire up Cousins as a streamer, but remember that there's risk in a potential lack of volume.
Chris Carson (RB, SEA)
Carson continues to dominate touches in this backfield, playing over 70% of the snaps so far this season. While he was inefficient against the Titans, he was still able to find the endzone twice to salvage his fantasy production. The Vikings rank 17th in rush DVOA and this is a potential shootout, so Carson will remain a rock-solid RB2 in this spot. Continue to start him with confidence and enjoy the uptick in usage.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
Matchups We Love:
Bucs WRs
Antonio Brown has been placed on the COVID/Reserve list. If he's unable to suit up, that would give more opportunities for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to go to work. While this is a tough matchup against Jalen Ramsey and company, it's unclear if we'll see him shadow a specific wideout here, so we can't be too concerned. This game has one of the highest totals on the slate, so we need to consider both Bucs wideouts as WR2s with upside in this spot.
UPDATE: Antonio Brown is expected to miss Week 3.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Gronk has absolutely turned back the clock so far this season, catching 12-of-13 targets for 129 yards and four touchdowns in two games. If AB is out, he'll also have more opportunities for targets. The Bucs passing game is firing on all cylinders right now and Gronk continues to be among the biggest red-zone threats in football. I wouldn't sell high on him because he's got huge touchdown equity in an elite offense. He's an every-week TE1.
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Stafford has looked phenomenal so far this season, completing 69.6% of his passes while averaging 10.7 yards per attempt with five touchdowns and only one interception. This Bucs defense is a pass-funnel because their run defense is so dominant. They have allowed 106 pass attempts in two games, which is the most in the NFL. In fact, the next closest team is the Cowboys at 91 attempts. An uptick in volume is going to be huge for Stafford and this passing game.
Rams WRs
Cooper Kupp has been ridiculous this season, quickly establishing himself as the preferred target for Stafford. Kupp has led the Rams in air yards (162) and target share (38.18%). He's finished as WR11 and WR1 so far. It's hard to see him slowing down in a pass-heavy game script in a potential shootout. Kupp is an elite WR1 right now. Robert Woods has gotten off to a slow start, but he still has a 23.64% target share, so the production will come soon, perhaps even in this game. You have to love the outlook for this Rams passing game in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Rams RBs
It appears that Darrell Henderson Jr. may miss this game, which would allow Sony Michel to carry the load against the toughest run defense in football. The Bucs rank 5th in rush DVOA while giving up only 3.09 yards per carry. It's going to be difficult for Michel to have an efficient game in this one. You'll also see a decrease in volume, which makes it tough to recommend him as anything more than a touchdown-dependent FLEX here.
Other Matchups:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady has been phenomenal this season, completing over 65% of his passes with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. The problem is that he faces a Rams defense that ranks 4th in pass DVOA this season. While the Bucs offense is good enough to overcome tough matchups and this could be a pass-heavy game script, we have to acknowledge the risk with Brady here given how deep the quarterback position is.
Bucs RBs
This backfield is a total mess, but perhaps we'll see Leonard Fournette start to get even more touches with Ronald Jones II continuing to disappoint. That's good news given this potential game script, as we could see points really fly in here. Fournette has out-snapped Jones 57-to-25, so the veteran is the clear leader in the clubhouse. I'd fire him up as a FLEX with upside in this spot.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Higbee really disappointed against the Colts, as he was limited to only one reception for eight yards, but he's continuing to see promising usage, playing 100% of the snaps so far this season. It's only a matter of time before we see a spike week from the veteran tight end. I'd continue to fire him up as a TE1. You'll just have to live with the down weeks, but I'd imagine that this won't be one of them.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Matchups We Love:
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones had a monster game on Monday, putting up six receptions, 115 total yards, and four touchdowns. This demonstrates how high of a ceiling Jones really has, as this isn't the first time he's put up multiple touchdowns in a game. Jones has played 59.84% of the snaps so far, leading running backs with a 13.33% target share. The 49ers rank 16th in run DVOA so far, which makes this an exploitable matchup for Jones. We can continue to fire him up as an elite RB1.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams had a big game against the Lions on Monday Night Football, catching 8-of-9 targets for 121 yards. While the 49ers rank 11th in pass DVOA, they've faced the Lions weak receiving core and Eagles unproven young wideouts. Adams should be able to have his way with the 49ers corners, as this team lost it's best cornerback Jason Verrett to a season-ending injury in Week 1. Fire up Adams as an elite WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Tonyan is only playing on 45.9% of the snaps so far this season. He's posted a modest 11.67% target share, making him a touchdown-dependent player. The Packers play at the sixth-slowest pace in football in neutral game scripts, which makes it difficult to rely on Tonyan on a weekly basis. Tonyan simply does not see enough targets to consider as anything more than a low-end TE1. He'll have his spike weeks, but he's really going to be unreliable and better suited for BestBall.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Garoppolo has only attempted 55 passes in two games, as he continues to function as the game-manager for a slow-paced offense. The 49ers are currently playing at the second-slowest pace in the NFL in neutral game scripts. They're also passing the ball only 48% of the time, which is the fourth-fewest in the league. This makes the matchup irrelevant for Garoppolo, as he simply does not get enough volume to get it done. He's nothing more than a desperation SuperFlex.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Aiyuk has entrenched himself as the biggest bust in fantasy football, as he's gone from a promising potential Year 2 breakout to an afterthought in this 49ers' offense. Aiyuk has only played on 51.2% of the snaps this season, putting up a ridiculously low 3.77% target share. While better days will likely come at some point, he's absolutely unplayable in season-long formats right now. I'd only consider Aiyuk as a tournament dart throw in DFS.
Other Matchups:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Rodgers had a bounce-back game on Monday, completing 22-of-27 passes for 255 yards and four touchdowns. The problem here is that the Packers continue to play at a slow pace, which limits Rodgers' volume. The veteran quarterback has only attempted 56 passes this season. When you consider the similarly slow-paced, run-heavy style of the 49ers, it's hard to see Rodgers as anything more than a lukewarm option this week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB)
MVS continues to be an air yards machine (268) with poor production (3 REC, 17 YDS). The good news is that he's posted a 20% target share so far this season. We also saw Rodgers miss MVS on a few throws on Monday night. The veteran quarterback specifically remarked how he regretted missing MVS in a post-game interview. This could mean that Rodgers will make it a point of emphasis to find MVS deep in this game, which is the only reason why he remains a lukewarm option.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
Samuel continued his breakout season last week, catching 6-of-8 targets for 93 yards against the Eagles. Samuel leads the 49ers in air yards (148) and target share (37.4%). He's clearly established himself as the top option in this offense, especially with tight end George Kittle used so often as a blocker. The good thing about Samuel is that his diverse skillset can help him overcome a potential matchup with elite corner Jaire Alexander. I wouldn't worry about Alexander in this game, but I'll still leave Samuel on the lukewarm list just in case.
Trey Sermon (RB, SF)
Sermon has a chance to take over this backfield with Elijah Mitchell listed as doubtful and JaMycal Hasty out for this game. This is a great opportunity against a Packers defense that ranks 25th in rush DVOA. Having said that, we have to leave Sermon in the lukewarm section because we're not sure how much he'll be used in this game. We can consider him an upside FLEX in this spot.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle has been a massive disappointment through two games, catching 8-of-9 targets for 95 yards. We all know how talented he is, but he's only run 43 routes, which is less than half of Darren Waller's total (91). It's tough to consider Kittle as an elite tight end when he's running so few routes. We need to bump him down until we start seeing some improved usage. Perhaps he gets going in this potential shootout, but it's tough to take him out of the lukewarm section.
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