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You won't believe it, but you weren't dreaming. That turkey you stuffed your face with a few days ago? Real. Your weekly meeting with football on the telly this past Sunday? Also real. All of that together only meant one thing: the fantasy football regular season is almost over, and with just one/two more weeks of games ahead before most leagues enter their playoffs stage, it's time to gear up for that deep postseason run toward the championship.
To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.
Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!
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Week 12 - The State Of The Passing Game
One of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players is Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really overperforming or underperforming among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers.
Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with quarterback-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.
As we'll be discussing quarterbacks and their passing stats, I will reduce the fantasy points per game averages to just those related to passing. That means that I have removed the rushing/receiving fantasy points the qualifying quarterbacks have logged during the season. I've called this metric paFP/G, which is to say passing Fantasy Points per Game.
So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 90 pass attempts.
Time to Throw
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 6%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Although there is some relation between TT and FPPG (paFP/G, I mean), the truth is that randomness is the calling card of this metric. Just look at the top and the bottom of the leaderboard 12 weeks into the season, and you'll see why.
- Now, that said, the truth is that the quarterbacks taking the most time to throw the rock are pretty much all wild players not really established in the league and/or with deep flaws--other than Lamar Jackson, obviously.
- There are 12 qualified players who are throwing after 2.85+ seconds while averaging a combined 12.0 FPPG on the season. On the other hand, the top-12 quickest throwers (all below 2.70 seconds) are putting up an eerily similar 12.6 FPPG average.
- Colt McCoy has made this week's cut after backing up Kyler Murray for a few games, reaching 90 passing attempts on the year. Only that has kept Big Ben from (once more) leading/trailing every other quarterback with his quickest throws around the NFL. Of course, BB has 384 attempts to McCoy's below-100. So yes, Ben is still our king.
- Only Ben, Tom Brady, and Tua Tagovailoa are taking fewer than 2.60 seconds to throw their passes. All of them are averaging 12+ FPPG with Brady close to doubling that mark himself at 21.6 FPPG through 12 weeks of play.
- On the other hand, three other QBs are holding on to the ball at least 2.8 seconds before looking for a receiver. Jameis Winston is done for the season, Zach Wilson has missed time injured, and Jalen Hurts excels on the ground but his passing game hasn't been that great all things considered.
- Quarterbacks with 20+ touchdowns so far are averaging 2.73 seconds per throw with only two of them above a 2.78 mark (Josh Allen and Carson Wentz).
- Quarterbacks with 10 or fewer TDs (min. 300 attempts) are taking a much higher 2.84 seconds per throw with Jared Goff boasting the quickest time already at a high 2.77-second mark.
- QBs averaging 16+ FPPG through W12 are throwing the ball with an average TT of 2.73 seconds.
- QBs averaging <12 FPPG through W12 are throwing the ball with an average TT of 2.80 seconds.
- All things considered, don't put much weight on this metric, as it is way more descriptive of past performance and style than predictive of future fantasy outings.
Completed/Intended Air Yards & Air Yards Differential
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 31% / 19% / 0%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Justin Fields got injured since the last time we checked, but his few passing attempts in that span allowed him to overtake Lamar Jackson for the highest IAY mark so far this year at 10.2 aDOT compared to the latter's 10.0 yards down the field. We need Fields back on the green ASAP.
- Now, it is also true that Jackson (and Russ for that matter) is putting up a super close mark to that of Fields while having attempted 143 more passes than the rook. Kudos to Lamar then because he deserves to be called the no. 1 distance thrower 12 weeks into the year.
- Perhaps the sky-high 12 interceptions to Lamar's name has something to do with those mental tendencies when it comes to throwing the ball deep as hell... I guess at least Jackson still has a few more TDs (15) than INTs this year. Russell Wilson, on the other hand, is somehow keeping up a 12:3 ratio in touchdowns and interceptions while carrying a silly-high 9.9 aDOT. Fantastic to see.
- Colt McCoy has done enough to keep Arizona fighting for the postseason and looking good this year, but he's definitely not doing it in any sort of flashy way. McCoy has the lowest IAY mark (and it's not even close) while also having a bottom-two CAY, only behind Jared Goff's mark.
- Goff, I'm afraid, needs no introduction to y'all reading out there. He has been atrocious all year long, the Lions have yet to win a game, and although the depleted receiving corps was never going to help good pal Jared, the truth is that he isn't doing anything himself to help the situation.
- Only Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo are staying above water when it comes to their AYD marks. Both QBs have an Average Yard Differential of -1.2 yards, the highest among all qualifiers. None of them is completing passes for even 6.5 yards down the field, though, playing it safe more often than not.
- Among the six QBs with CAY marks of 6.5+, Zach Wilson has the smallest differential at .1.6 AYD while Russell Wilson has the largest at a ridiculous -3.2 AYD.
- Those Wilson -3.2 AYD yards rank second-lowest only above Jalen Hurts' mark of -3.3 yards. Hurts is trying and throwing deep balls often (9.1 IAY) but he's connecting on much shorter passes with an actual 5.8-yard CAY.
- Lowest AYD QBs: Hurts, Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers, Taylor Heinicke, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Sam Darnold
- Highest AYD QBs: Matt Ryan, Garoppolo, Tua, Mike White, Zach Wilson, Kyler Murray, Trevor Siemian, Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, Colt McCoy
Aggressiveness
Correlation with Passing Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): negative-23%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- NGS defines "Aggressiveness" as the percentage of passes a quarterback throws into tight coverage, that is when a defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the point of the catch/interception. Don't take this metric as a sign of "braveness" or anything like that, though. It relates more to reckless-passing than anything else.
- A quick peek at the most aggressive passers gives you an idea of what we're dealing with here. Outside of (maybe) Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, all other "aggressive" quarterbacks are far from what we would consider a bonafide star or good/solid passer.
- It's been a pleasure to watch rookie WR Ja'Marr Chase putting up numbers playing under Joe Burrow, and we probably have to 1) thank Burrow for keeping it tight and chase (pun intended) even the smallest of windows to complete passes and 2) wait for Burrow to actually thank Chase himself for catching rocks thrown into the darkest of places.
- Big Ben, on the other hand, has thrown bad passes into tight windows and that hasn't worked out that well for him nor the Steelers.
- The Dolphins find themselves in a conundrum when it comes to playing Tua, but it's not that Jacoby Brissett has risked the biscuit much less than Tua... Both rank into the top-seven most-aggressive passers of the season so far through W12.
- As I always remark, being aggressive (per NGS definition) doesn't mean being good or bad. It just means a high amount of passes are thrown into tight windows, which could work (reception) or not (missed pass).
- That's precisely why Patrick Mahomes and Colt McCoy have the two lowest AGG% marks in the NFL, but also why the former is averaging 18.7 FPPG to the latter's 5.3. Chiefs receivers are good at getting open, and Mahomes is a beast. Cardinals players might not be that good, so McCoy's lack of aggressiveness is actually coming from safe-route passes.
- Roethlisberger stays on top of the counting aggressive passes with 74 this season, the only qualified QB with 70+ such throws. He's followed by Joe Burrow (69) and Justin Herbert (68).
- On the other end, among QBs with at least 200+ attempts, Davis Mills (28), Kyler Murray (29), and Zach Wilson (30) have the fewest aggressive passes.
Attempts & Yards & Y/A
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 68% / 75% / 54%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- Not many big secrets are hidden in these three stats, am I right? The correlation is high with fantasy points basically because fantasy points rely mostly on pure yardage, and to rack up yards you have to throw the ball (the more the better, that is).
- Only three quarterbacks are attempting 40+ passes per game (Herbert, Mahomes, and Brady) and all of them are averaging 18.7+ FPPG. Tip: throw the ball often, folks.
- Shout out to Tom Brady for leading the league with 42 passes per game. That's way below his W3 mark of 47, but still high enough to sit atop the qualified bunch of QBs.
- Even though Brady has the most attempts per game, it is Carr who leads the total yards leaderboard with 3,414 yards to Brady's 3,403.
- Nobody is remotely close to Kyler Murray's 8.9 Y/A, with the two of Garoppolo and Burrow already half-a-yard down from that mark.
- Russell Wilson's 8.2 mark is good, yet he's only thrown the ball 222 times this season. The same goes for Colt McCoy, who is 11th in Y/A among qualifiers (7.6 yards per attempt) but has only thrown 90 passes.
- Not a thing to like about definitely-overhyped Trevor Lawrence, who is 9:10 in terms of his TD: INT ratio while averaging a measly and second-lowest 6.0 Y/A... Damn, those rookie growing pains.
- Speaking of freshmen: Zach Wilson is at 6.4 Y/A, Mills at 6.5, and Fields at 6.9. It's not that they're doing wonders, precisely. Mac Jones leads them all with a 7.5 average that is also top-13 in the NFL.
Completion Percentage & xCOMP & COMP Above Expectation
Correlation with Fantasy Points (based on the 2020 season): 37% / -2% / 50%
Leaders and Trailers:
Leaderboard Notes:
- The world of hypotheticals is cool, but what truly matters is what actually happens on the field. That is why the real completion percentage is the stat that matters, and why the expected rate doesn't cut a good deal for fantasy GMs.
- That being said, the difference between both marks (CPOE) is the strongest indicator of fantasy performance, which makes sense considering those that "overperform" or play to higher-than-expected levels on average are the ones who more often than not put on high-octane performances.
- I don't want you to waste your time, so let me introduce you to the most overperforming quarterback of the season to date: Mighty Kyler. Murray's complemented 72.7% of his attempts compared to the much-lower 65.8% expectations. That's wild, and a 6.9% overperformance on the year. Not even Geno Smith and his small sample of just 95 passes have him above Murray (6.4 CPOE to 6.9).
- Only Joe Burrow is keeping up a mark above 4.5% in CPOE among players with at least 300 passing attempts. Teddy Bridgewater (yes, that Teddy Bridgewater) ranks second as the only other QB above 3.6%.
- The low sample of attempts by Colt McCoy is helping him in having the highest COMP% of the season to date among qualifiers at a massive 75.6%. More surprising is finding teammate Kyler Murray clocking in at second with a 72.7% mark. Only Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones have been able to sustain completion rates above 70% among all qualifiers not playing for 'Zona.
- Lawrence has been an absolute disaster. He's completed just 58.1% of his attempts, the lowest rate among qualifiers with 300+ attempts on the season followed by Sam Darnold at 59.5% and Jalen Hurts at 60.1% already.
- Hurts' completion rate is bad, but it's not that he's underperforming the expectations wildly. In fact, he only has an xCOMP slightly above his actual completion rate at 60.6% compared to 60.1% on the actual season.
- Much worse are the cases of Trevor Siemian and Justin Fields, both of them completing 58.1% or fewer passes while both having xCOMP marks of 61.1% or higher (Siemian is at -3.8 CPOE and Fields at -3.6).
- Geno Smith, on the other hand, has a bottom-four xCOMP mark (62%) yet he's overperforming that number incredibly by completing 68.4% of his attempts for a 6.4% CPOE.
- Nobody has completed fewer passes than expected than Zach Wilson, whose actual 57.6% rate is -7.9 (!!!) percent behind what he should be doing on the field (65.5% xCOMP).
- That's something to expect when it comes to rookies, though, with Lawrence ranking second-lowest in CPOE and Justin Fields seventh himself.
- Mac Jones is bucking the trend, though, as he's completed 3.4% more passes than expected and boasts the sixth-highest CPOE through 12 weeks of play.
- The average FPPG of quarterbacks with positive CPOE comes out at 14.0 fantasy points.
- The average FPPG of quarterbacks with negative CPOE comes out at 12.5 fantasy points.
- QBs with 16+ FPPG are averaging a 1.6 CPOE.
- QBs with <12 FPPG are averaging a -1.6 CPOE.
That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!
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