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Welcome to the Week 10 Sunday slates edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
- This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 10 Sunday slates!
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Matt Ryan, ATL at DAL | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $25
Ryan has hit his stride nicely in head coach Arthur Smith's offensive system in somewhat under-the-radar fashion, and it's particularly commendable he's accomplished it without the services of Calvin Ridley (personal) in several games. The veteran quarterback is currently equaling a career high with a 69.4 percent completion rate, has eclipsed the 300-yard mark in three of his past four games, and has multiple touchdown passes in six of his last seven contests overall.
Just as with last week's bargain suggestion Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan could thrive against a Cowboys defense that can sometimes struggle outside of star cornerback Tavon Diggs. Dallas has allowed 14 touchdown passes and is ranked 28th in explosive pass play rate allowed. Additionally, the Cowboys are allowing an elevate 11.9 yards per completion at home, placing them in the bottom 10 of the league in that category.
Carson Wentz, IND vs. JAC| DK: $5,900, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $24
Wentz has also been on a role while reacclimating himself to Frank Reich's system, which he enjoyed the greatest success of his pro career in back during part of his Eagles tenure. The sixth-year pro has a stellar 17:3 TD:INT, and he's had a chance to get some extra rest after Indy played on Thursday night in Week 9. Wentz checks into Sunday's contest with multiple touchdown passes in six straight games despite the presence and usage of Jonathan Taylor, making his production all the more remarkable.
The Jaguars have improved their run defense significantly over last season, but Jacksonville has struggled most of the season against the pass, last week's shocking upset of the Bills notwithstanding. The Jags still check in allowing an NFL-high 73.0 percent completion rate on the road and have given up the third-highest yards per completion (11.4) there as well. What's more, Jacksonville has just four interceptions and 15 sacks in eight games and ranks last in pass defense DVOA while checking in 31st in explosive pass play rate allowed.
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Darrel Williams, KC at LVR | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $17
Williams came through nicely as a value suggestion in Week 9, parlaying 22 touches into 77 yards in the win over the Packers. With head coach Andy Reid noting this week that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is highly unlikely to return Sunday from his knee injury, Williams should be set for another busy afternoon as the clear-cut lead back. The opposing Raiders have allowed a robust 133.5 rushing yards per game overall, including 150.0 per home game. Vegas has also surrendered a hefty 4.6 RB yards per carry, and Williams is also well-equipped to capitalize on the 40-360-3 line they've given up through the air to backs when considering he's recorded multiple receptions in seven straight games.
Melvin Gordon, DEN vs. PHI | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $20
Gordon's backfield mate Javonte Williams undoubtedly has the look of a special player, but Gordon is still enjoying a consistent and significant role and remains the preferred option near the goal line. The veteran has a massive 26 red-zone touches in just nine games, and he's averaging an impressive 4.4 yards per carry. Gordon also continues to have a presence in the passing game (20 rec, 163 yds, 2 TDs on 24 targets), while the Eagles have been generous to backs throughout the season. Philadelphia checks in with a No. 20 ranking in rush defense DVOA, the fifth-most touchdowns allowed to RBs (eight) and an NFC-high 65 receptions surrendered to running backs.
ALSO CONSIDER: AJ Dillon, GB vs. SEA | DK: $4,800, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $17
YAHOO-ONLY SPECIAL: Josh Jacobs, LVR vs. KC | $20
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Michael Pittman Jr., IND vs. JAC | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $23
Pittman makes for a highly appealing value play at wideout for many of the same reasons already cited in Wentz's entry, namely, the Jaguars' various deficiencies against the pass. In addition to the numbers already cited, it's also worth noting that Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most receptions (124) to wideouts and has allowed 12.4 yards per grab to the position in the process, a depth of completion that dovetails very well with Pittman's typical intermediate, possession-type role. The second-year wideout has an aDOT of 10.3 yards and is averaging 13.2 yards per catch, and with a sizable red-zone role (10 RZ targets in nine games, matching last season's total achieved in 13 games), he makes for a very appealing option at his still reasonable salaries.
Amari Cooper, DAL vs. ATL | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $23
Cooper underwhelmed last week and could therefore be at least a tad bit less rostered than he otherwise would be, making him a natural fit at his very reasonable salaries, especially in tournaments. Cooper had just two receptions for 37 yards on five targets versus the Broncos on a day in which Dak Prescott atypically completed under 50.0 percent of his passes. There should be more production to be had in a softer matchup against a Falcons defense that's ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA and that's tied with several teams for third-most touchdown grabs given up to wideouts (11). Cooper has been cleared of his hamstring injury ahead of Sunday's game and is being targeted on a robust 14.1 percent of his routes run, which should give him ample opportunity to deliver strong returns on his salaries.
Cole Beasley, BUF at NYJ | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $17
Beasley is another normally very productive player that's coming off a down game, as he mustered just 33 yards on eight catches in the big upset loss to the Jaguars. The veteran possession receiver was working through a rib issue in that contest, however, and he's now cleared of an injury designation heading into the weekend. Beasley already has five tallies of seven receptions or more this season, and a matchup against a Jets squad that's ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA, 30th in explosive pass play rate allowed and that's yielded 1,777 yards and 10 touchdowns in the three short/intermediate passing windowns are likely just what he needs for a big return.
ALSO CONSIDER: Hunter Renfrow, LVR vs. KC | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $17
YAHOO-ONLY SPECIAL: Diontae Johnson, PIT vs. DET | $23
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. DET | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $16
Freiermuth has seen his role in the offense progressively grow, and even though veteran Eric Ebron is expected to be back from his hamstring injury for Sunday's contest, the rookie has made more than enough inroads over the last several weeks to retain a sizable role. Freiermuth is coming off a two-touchdown tally against the Bears on Monday night and has a combined 16-145-3 line on 20 targets over his last three games while running a solid 90 routes over that span. The Lions have actually been good against tight ends this season despite their woeful record, but this is still a defense that's ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA and last in the NFL in explosive pass play rate allowed and yards per pass play.
Dan Arnold, JAC at IND | DK: $3,500, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $14
Arnold has become a favorite of rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence, notching a 20-219 line on 30 targets over his last four games. Arnold is being targeted on a robust 19.1 percent of his routes during that span, giving him a fairly solid floor, especially for a player with his salaries. The Colts rank No. 26 in pass defense DVOA and Indy checks in having allowed a 70.4 percent catch rate and 55-544-6 line to tight ends; moreover they’ve also yielded 109 receptions for 1,048 yards and 16 TDs in the short middle and short right passing windows, areas of the field where Arnold has 13 of his 22 receptions and 132 of his 248 yards during his time with the Jags.
ALSO CONSIDER: Tyler Conklin, MIN at LAC | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $16
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