Offensive Outliers From Week 11 - Coaching Matters

We now enter the 11th week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 11, we saw stat lines such as the Indianapolis Colts running backs combining for 42 carries, the Washington Football Team tight end room combining for 23 receiving yards, and the Chicago Bears wide receivers combining for 234 receiving yards.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Atlanta Falcons Tight Ends

Arthur Smith & Dave Ragone

	TE Rec.	TE Tgts	TE Rec. Yds	TE Rec. TD
2020 Falcons	4.13	6.5	41.19	0.38
Arthur Smith Prior (32 games)	5.31	7.66	59.84	0.59
Atlanta Falcons TEs vs. New England Patriots	4	6	34	0

The Atlanta Falcons tight end room had a subpar day against the New England Patriots where they combined for four receptions on six targets for 34 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 72 receptions (7.2 per game) on 105 targets (10.5 per game) for 851 receiving yards (85.1 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.3 per game). Given how much Falcons head coach Arthur Smith likes to utilize the tight end position in his offense, it's likely that we see better performances than last Thursday that is more in line with the current 2021 season averages.

Fantasy players this impacts: Kyle Pitts, Hayden Hurst, Lee Smith, and Parker Hesse

Detroit Lions Wide Receivers

Dan Campbell & Anthony Lynn

With Tim Boyle making the start at quarterback, the Detroit Lions wide receiver room struggled hard against the Cleveland Browns with the group combining for four receptions on eight targets for 18 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 97 receptions (9.7 per game) on 159 targets (15.9 per game) for 1048 receiving yards (104.8 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (0.4 per game). Based on what we're used to seeing from head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn, it's clear that the 2021 Detroit Lions wide receiver room has been underwhelming this season with the big problem being the lack of talent at the position. Expect this group to improve a little on the current season averages as the season goes on, but probably not enough to make any of the Lions' receivers worth rostering in 2021.

Fantasy players this impacts: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, Kalif Raymond,  Trinity Benson, KhaDarel Hodge, Geronimo Allison, Josh Reynolds, and Tom Kennedy

Washington Football Team Tight Ends

Scott Turner

	TE Rec.	TE Tgts	TE Rec. Yds	TE Rec. TD
2020 Football Team	4.69	7.25	43	0.38
Scott Turner Prior (20 games)	4.55	7.45	42.6	0.35
Washington Football Team TEs vs. Carolina Panthers	3	3	23	0

The Washington Football Team tight end room couldn't get anything going against the Carolina Panthers this past Sunday as they combined for three receptions on three targets for 23 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 43 receptions (4.3 per game) on 57 targets (5.7 per game) for 406 receiving yards (40.6 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (0.4 per game). Comparing this information to offensive coordinator Scott Turner's previous career averages, it seems that we could possibly see a couple more targets for the Washington Football Team tight end room in future weeks - especially with Logan Thomas soon making his return. Thomas is a solid buy-low right now and a good target if you are struggling at tight end in your fantasy leagues.

Fantasy players this impacts: Logan Thomas, Ricky Seals-Jones, and John Bates

In the blowout Thursday Night Football loss to the New England Patriots, the Atlanta Falcons running back room could not get anything going as they combined for 13 carries, 32 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, five receptions, seven targets, 20 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns on the day. On the season this group has now totaled 201 carries (20.1 per game), 712 rushing yards (71.2 per game), three rushing touchdowns (0.3 per game), 69 receptions (6.9 per game), 92 targets (9.2 per game), 629 receiving yards (62.9 per game), and six receiving touchdowns (0.6 per game). It's hard to compare the 2021 Atlanta Falcons running back room with the 2019-2020 Tennessee Titans running back room that Arthur Smith worked with previously since both have drastically different skillsets. But, the bottom line is that we should expect better performances than last Thursday in the future for the 2021 Atlanta Falcons running back room.

Fantasy players this impacts: Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Davis, Wayne Gallman, and Qadree Ollison

 

Decline Ahead?

A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers

Matt LaFleur & Nathaniel Hackett

In the Sunday thriller against the Minnesota Vikings, the Green Bay Packers wide receiver room combined for an impressive 14 receptions on 22 targets for 296 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 140 receptions (12.73 per game) on 218 targets (19.82 per game) for 1867 receiving yards (169.73 per game) and 14 receiving touchdowns (1.27 per game) on the season. Comparing this season's averages with what we're used to seeing from head coach Matt LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett prior, it seems that a lot of the numbers are in the right ballpark. Don't go expecting performances like this past Sunday every week, but the season averages, in general, seem pretty sustainable for the rest of the season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Randall Cobb

Chicago Bears Wide Receivers

Matt Nagy & Bill Lazor

The Chicago Bears wide receiver room had a strong day against the Baltimore Ravens where they combined for 11 receptions on 27 targets for 234 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 94 receptions (9.4 per game) on 167 targets (16.7 per game) for 1227 receiving yards (122.7 per game) and six receiving touchdowns (0.6 per game). Looking at the data, the 2021 Chicago Bears wide receiver room had actually been underperforming all season prior to last Sunday based on Matt Nagy & Bill Lazor's previous averages with the position. What this means is that while you shouldn't expect performances like this past Sunday for the Chicago Bears wide receivers each week, there is room for improvement on the season averages for this group.

Fantasy players this impacts: Darnell Mooney, Marquise Goodwin, Allen Robinson II, Jakeem Grant, Damiere Byrd, and Jesper Horsted

Jonathan Taylor and the rest of the Indianapolis Colts' running back room ran wild on the Buffalo Bills this past Sunday as they combined 42 carries, 228 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, three receptions, three targets, 19 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown on the day. On the season, this group has now totaled 274 carries (24.91 per game), 1469 rushing yards (133.55 per game), 15 rushing touchdowns (1.36 per game), 60 receptions (5.45 per game), 82 targets (7.45 per game), 534 receiving yards (48.55 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.18 per game). Obviously, it's rare for any team to give their running backs 40+ carries in a game in the modern era of the NFL, so you shouldn't expect Sunday's workload each week for the Colts running back room. Having said that, a lot of the current season usage averages are right in line with what we're used to seeing from Frank Reich's running back rooms historically. What this means is that while Jonathan Taylor may not have another 50+ fantasy point days this season, it is very doable for him to maintain his current fantasy points per game averages over the course of the rest of the season. Continue to hold and enjoy rostering the #1 overall fantasy running back for the rest of the season.

Fantasy players this impacts: Jonathan Taylor, Deon Jackson, Nyheim Hines, and Marlon Mack

 

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