RADIO
Week 11 of the NFL season is in the books, and now we get a nice 3-game mid-week Thanksgiving Day slate. The Thanksgiving Day Slate is one of the most anticipated NFL DFS days of the year, as we get three games all spread out throughout the day. A full day of NFL DFS action. The games may not be as great as years past due to injuries and whatnot, but we still get the football to go with all the family and food the day can bring. It is challenging for cash games on this three-game slate but follow the injury news and roster rate reports to get the best cash game lineups in the end.
For this small, tasty slate, we will stick with the usual cash gameplan of looking for a solid floor and going from there, especially when it comes to value plays. Value for Thursday is quite spread out. The popular moves will be paying up at quarterback for Josh Allen or Dak Prescott, which makes sense and will likely be doing in my cash lineups. After that, it is relatively wide open as there are top-end plays at each position and some excellent values. The double tight end builds may be very popular, and for a good reason this week, so do not sleep on paying up for Darren Waller or Dalton Shultz and save elsewhere.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are somewhat swinging for the fences. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets, or carries. So, let's look at the cash value plays for Thanksgiving Day of the 2021 NFL season.
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays - Thanksgiving Day Cash Games
Derek Carr, LV at DAL | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,400
Carr is coming off a rough Sunday versus the Bengals, but before that, he had put up 19+ fantasy points in three of four games and could bounce back nicely this week in Dallas. Tossing last week out the window, Carr had attempted at least 34 passes in the previous three games with at least 261 passing yards and at least one passing touchdown per game.
He will take on a Cowboys defense that brought it versus the Chiefs last week, but a defense that has also been getting torched by average teams like the Broncos. The Cowboys rank 10th on the season versus opposing quarterbacks, allowing over 17 fantasy points per game. It is not a lights-out spot, but in a game where the Raiders are seven-point underdogs with a 22 point implied team total, Carr should be throwing early and often, racking up some fantasy goodness.
Running Back DFS Value Plays - Thanksgiving Day Cash Games
Josh Jacobs, LV at DAL | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,700
The Raiders inconsistency with giving Jacobs the ball like a lead back should is quite frustrating, but we have to keep plugging along in anticipation it changes. Jacobs is still seeing 7+ carries and 4+ targets in three straight games. Even with the inconsistencies, Jacobs has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season. That consistency is what we can live with and keeps us coming back in cash games, especially on a 3-game slate.
With the Raiders being seven-point dogs this week, some may say the rushing game will be non-existent, but that doesn't matter if Jacobs is still getting passes out of the backfield. The Cowboys rank 10th versus opposing backs over the last four games, but they allow an average of 113 yards per game and over 15 fantasy points per game. So Jacobs is far too cheap on a 3-game slate and makes for a great cash game play.
David Montgomery, CHI at DET | DK: $6,000 FD: $7,500
Last week was lined up to be a substantial Monty week, but that fell through like most things do when Matt Nagy is involved. Well, this week is another great spot, and this looks to be Nagy's last game. Hopefully, that means the reigns are off, and Monty can run wild on the Lions. Since Monty returned two weeks ago, he has 15 touches in each game but has yet to find the end zone. The 15 touches alone make a lovely floor, but in a perfect world, a world with Andy Dalton at quarterback, Monty hopefully gets 20+ touches.
He takes on a Lions' defense that ranks 30th on the season versus running backs and 20th over the last four games. Over the previous four games, the Lions allow an average of 115 yards rushing, a touchdown, and over 20 fantasy points per game. The Bears are 3.5 point favorites with an implied team total of 22.5 points, meaning Monty should get a ton of work and make for a great cash game play on Thursday.
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays - Thanksgiving Day Cash Games
Michael Gallup, DAL vs. LV | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,500
The Cowboys are looking to bounce back in a big way after their dud in Kansas City, and Gallup may be a big piece to that. Since he returned two weeks ago, Gallup had racked up 15 targets, including a team-high ten targets last week. Aligator arms may have hurt him a bit as he only caught five last week, but the opportunity is there. Also, keep an eye on the CeeDee Lamb news as he is battling a concussion and is questionable for Thursday's game. If CeeDee misses, then Gallup is an even better play this week. Either way, Amari Cooper is out, and Gallup will be targeted early and often as the Cowboys work towards their implied team total of 29.
Tre'Quan Smith, NO vs. BUF | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,900
There is not a ton of excellent cash game value, so we look to Smith, who is at least getting targeted a ton of late. Over the last two weeks, he has been targeted 15 times which ties for the team lead with Mark Ingram and one ahead of Adam Trautman. The 21.74% target share over the last two weeks also comes with a team-high three red-zone and three end-zone targets on the team. Smith has scored double-digit fantasy points over the previous two games and three of the last four games with all this production.
Smith does draw an incredibly tough matchup versus the Bills this week, but there could be a lot of garbage time coming to Trevor Siemian and the Saints way, meaning a lot of Smith opportunities. But, again, there are not a lot of solid cheap cash plays without more news coming, so look to Smith if feeling the need to go below Gallup.
Tight End DFS Value Plays - Thanksgiving Day Cash Games
Dawson Knox, BUF at NO | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,900
I usually do not recommend many tight ends priced this high as a cash value, but Knox checks the boxes on this three-game slate. Waller and Shultz getting most of the love leave Knox a bit overlooked with similar upside, making him a value. Knox returned two weeks ago, and week one was a bit slow with one target, but he was back with ten team-leading targets last week. Knox caught six of those targets for 80 yards on his way to an excellent week.
He faces the Saints this week as 4.5 point favorites and an implied team total of 25.5. Knox also takes on a Saints' defense that ranks 17th versus opposing tight ends over the last four weeks, allowing an average of five receptions and 50 yards per game. So look for Knox to be a focal point again this week and maybe get a red-zone look or two to raise that fantasy appeal.
Nick Vannett, NO vs. BUF | DK: $2,500, FD: $4,200
If looking for a mega tight end punt, then Vannett is your guy. Most will look to Juwan Johnson with Trautman being out, but Vannett is the blocking tight end that caught his one target for 20 yards last week. Johnson did not see a target last week and has only seen three targets with Siemian under center. Vannett brings significant risk, but at the dirt minimum, Vannett brings some decent cash game value.
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