RADIO
It's Friday, which means we have a huge slate of NBA games! There are nine games tipping off tonight, which gives us a plethora of spots to go to for DFS purposes. The prices on the stud players have really been boosted up for these big slates this week, which also works to make things more interesting and spread ownership out quite a bit.
On big slates like this, it's a pretty good rule to just not worry about ownership in most situations. With 18 teams available to pick from, there are dozens and dozens of viable options so it's pretty unlikely that ownership gets very concentrated. It's also very important to focus on upside. The cash line on huge slates like this will tend to be closer to 300 than 250, and often times it can exceed 300 even in cash games. That means you really need to get your picks right and focus on guys that can go for 7-8 salary multipliers in terms of value. We'll keep all that in mind here.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 12/3/21. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
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DraftKings Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Cole Anthony - PG, ORL vs. HOU ($8,200)
The Rockets are a miserable defense, surrendering a league-high 239.1 DraftKings points per game this season. Add on to that fact that Jalen Suggs is set to miss his second of many games, and you have a stand-out guy at the top of the Magic lineup in Anthony. Last game without Suggs, Anthony launched 21 seasons, a season-high for him. His 26.4% usage rate on the year was second on the team only to Suggs, so the logical conclusion is that Anthony will be the biggest beneficiary from Suggs being out of the lineup. His price will probably trend towards $9,000, and you can get him for just $8,200 tonight - making him a great way to spend some money, locking in a bunch of shot attempts.
Tyler Herro - PG/SG, MIA vs. IND ($7,500)
In games without Jimmy Butler this year (three games), Herro has a sky-high 32% usage rate while taking 20.9 field goal attempts per 36 minutes played. He has not shot the ball particularly well in those games, which has resulted in a much lower-than-expected 1.04 DraftKings points per minute rate. With Butler and Bam out of the lineup tonight for the Heat, Herro should have the green light to shoot the ball as often as he wants. That results in a massively high ceiling for this guy, especially against a beatable defense in Indiana.
Others to consider: Cameron Payne ($3,700), Chris Paul ($8,400), Caris LeVert ($5,700)
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DraftKings Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Landry Shamet - SG/SF, PHO vs. GSW ($4,000)
Devin Booker will miss his second game for the Suns, and that is probably the most significant piece of injury news on the slate right now. That opens up a ton of usage for the Suns, all of which cannot possibly be taken up by Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. Shamet drew the start for Booker and shot the ball 11 times while playing a season-high 31 minutes. He scored 14 points in that game on 5-11 shooting. The problem with Shamet is that he's unlikely to add much in terms of peripherals, as he's contributing just 3.5 rebounds and 1.2 assists per 36 minutes played this season. As a three-point specialist, he still adds quite a bit of upside here, and you can reasonably project him for five to seven three-point attempts, which is a very strong projection at just $4,000.
Franz Wagner - SF/PF, ORL vs. HOU ($5,800)
We already talked about the spot for the Magic tonight against the league's worst fantasy defense and without their highest-usage player. Wagner is the secondary piece to Anthony here, and the minutes have really been pushing upwards on him. He has played at least 33 minutes in his last three while averaging 15.3 shot attempts in those games. He is a multi-category contributor, averaging 13.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.5 assists this year to go with a setal and half a block as well.
The ceiling on Wagner is a bit lower than what we typically like at this elevated price tag, but the minutes and the usage make his floor quite high tonight against this bad Rockets team.
Others to consider: Cameron Johnson ($4,200), Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,000), Garrison Mathews ($4,500)
DraftKings Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Dewayne Dedmon - C, MIA vs. IND ($4,800)
Bam Adebayo will be on the shelf for several weeks, which opens up a lot of minutes for the backup big men. In the first game without Bam, Dedmon played 31 minutes, took 13 shots, scored 11 points, and grabbed 13 rebounds while also adding on three assists just for good measure. That sums up to 39.25 DraftKings points. That performance led to a $1,700 price increase, which takes away a lot of the upside from the play. It is not a sure thing that Dedmon plays 30+ minutes again, but if he does he almost sure to smash even this price tag. The production from centers is much less prone to variance since they get a lot of their points from high-percentage shots and rebounds, so it's always nice to lock in a value center here - and it's a great night to do that with Dedmon tonight.
Naz Reid - PF/C, MIN vs. BKN ($3,300)
This is only a recommendation if Karl-Anthony Towns does not play, and he is currently questionable. Reid should draw the start and play minutes in the mid-twenties if Towns does sit. For the year, he has scored a strong 1.08 DraftKings points per minute, averaging 15.2 shots, five three-point attempts, eight rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per 36 minutes this year. At $3,300 that makes him arguably the best play on the slate if Towns is out - but we likely won't know that news until this evening - so keep a close eye on it.
Others to consider: Daniel Gafford ($5,000), Wendell Carter ($6,500), Ivica Zubac ($4,800)
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