RADIO
It is finally Championship Week! After traveling for the holiday, I'm still a little behind from watching last week's games. I'm through the important ones and can make educated picks on the ten Championship games plus Cal-USC. We only have 11 games this weekend, so I need to make it count. I'd like to go into Bowl season sitting at 50%. We'll see how that goes.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
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Western Kentucky(-3.5) at UTSA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is interesting considering that UTSA beat the Hilltoppers outright on their own field earlier this season. The 73 over/under feels low after the first meeting. I trust the UTSA defense a little more, but they are definitely going to have problems with Bailey Zappe again. Considering the Roadrunners beat them earlier on their own field, I still like UTSA outright here.
(10)Oregon vs. (17)Utah(-2.5) at Las Vegas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Yeah, I don't buy it. Utah dominated this game in Salt Lake City just two weeks ago. Sure, Oregon looked better against Oregon State, but they didn't have to deal with Tavion Thomas or the Utah defense either. Utes win again, but probably by closer to 10 than 28.
(9)Baylor vs. (5)Oklahoma State(-5.5) at Jerry World
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Pokes won the first game by ten points in Stillwater. Now they are closer to Waco and Baylor is likely a better team. Still, I doubt that Gerry Bohanon is at 100% if he plays. That changes things. This Oklahoma State defense is probably the best the conference has seen this decade. I'll take the Pokes.
Kent State(-3.5) vs. Northern Illinois at Detroit
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The first matchup yielded 99 combined points and I doubt this one is any different. The NIU defense is still struggling. Kent's has actually toughened up a bit lately, and they haven't blown second half leads like they were earlier in the season. I'm taking Kent on the chance that Rocky Lombardi doesn't play. Even so, Kent should have run off with the first game and the Huskies were lucky to get back in it.
Utah State vs. (19)San Diego State(-5.5) at Carson, CA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This has been a nice run for Utah State, especially considering the state of disarray this team was in late last year when Jaylen Warren abruptly left. It's a feel-good story, but that wont beat the Aztecs. Give me SDSU.
Appalachian State(-2.5) at (24)Louisiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Cajuns destroyed App State on the first Tuesday game of the season earlier this year. The Mountaineers were without Camerun Peoples in that one, but it may not have mattered. That game went sideways in a hurry. So yeah, I'm surprised that App State is the favorite. I'm not sure they should be. I'll take the Cajuns.
(1)Georgia(-6.5) vs. (3)Alabama at Atlanta
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Saban has only been a dog five time since 2008. He has won four of them outright. The only loss was to Florida in 2008. The Tide haven't been a dog in any game in six years! Think about that for a minute. No player on this team has ever taken the field as an underdog. Alabama has looked fallible at times this year. The last time Bama was a dog? They beat Georgia 38-10. All of this is getting heavy money put on Bama. I choose to judge by the team on the field, and Georgia is the best team I've seen in the last decade. Give me the Bulldogs.
(21)Houston at (4)Cincinnati(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels at least a half point too high. Can Cincinnati bring the same intensity of the last two games now that they are in the top four? This is the game I'm most on the fence about. I think Cincinnati wins, but the spread is the bugaboo here. I really like that half for Houston. Give me the Cougars.
(2)Michigan(-10.5) vs. (13)Iowa at Indianapolis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Michigan should crush Iowa. Should. They are better at every position besides tight end than the Hawkeyes. I've watched enough Michigan in the Harbaugh era to know that there would no more Harbaugh thing Michigan could do than to lose this game outright. If Iowa weren't so bad (they are the worst ten-win team in a while), I would pick it. Give me Michigan, but I'm lowering the bet because......this is where Michigan has choked in the last five years. Games like this.
(15)Pittsburgh(-3.5) vs. (15)Wake Forest at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is practically a home game for the Deacons, but that doesn't come with an extra defender. They would need it to beat Pitt. Give me the Panthers.
USC at California(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
USC has their new coach. Does the team win the last one for Donte Williams? They almost pulled it off against a good BYU team. This just feels like a game Cal loses. I haven't done this much lately, but give me USC.
Championship Week can be a tough week for betting, hence five of the 11 games being two-point picks for me. I have four three-pointers and one each of four and five. Good luck out there! Let's head into the bowls with a little extra cash!
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