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Week 13 is officially in the books. This week, the Panthers, Browns, Packers, and Titans are back in action with the Colts, Dolphins, Eagles, and Patriots all on Bye.
In this weekly column, we'll look at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about these players.
Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 14 (and beyond) of the NFL season.
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Fantasy Football Risers for Week 14
K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings
After posting a 7-76-0 line on nine targets in Week 1, Osborn became one of the hottest waiver wire pickups on the market. He followed that up with a very solid 5-91-1 line on six targets in Week 2, but it’s been mostly downhill for him since that point (outside of a random fantastic Week 6 performance). But with Adam Thielen suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 13 and likely missing the team’s Thursday night game vs. the Steelers, Osborn should step right up as the WR2 behind Justin Jefferson. In last week’s game, Osborn ran 43 routes on 92% of the snaps, garnering seven targets from Kirk Cousins. Jefferson doubled him up with 14 targets (to be expected), but Osborn is in line for a full workload Thursday night and possibly beyond.
Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams
Jefferson is the WR9 over the last two games. He’s playing nearly every snap of competitive games and is averaging eight targets (including two red-zone targets) per game in his last three games with Robert Woods out of the lineup. He’s running an average of 37.3 routes per game in those three games, which is more than the newly acquired Odell Beckham Jr., who is running 30 routes per game in his two most recent games with the Rams. Jefferson has also caught a touchdown in each of his last two games. This is a pass-happy offense that heads to Arizona to take on the Cardinals for Monday Night Football in Week 14, and the Rams have an implied total of 24.5 points. You’ll want to fire up Jefferson as a WR2 in this one.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Historically, the knock on Jacobs’ fantasy value has been his lack of usage in the passing game. Well, that’s changing right before our eyes, and there’s no reason to believe it won’t continue with Kenyan Drake out for the season and Jalen Richard on the reserve/COVID-19 list. He’s averaging 24 opportunities (17.5 rush attempts + 6.5 targets) in his last two games and is the overall RB7 during that stretch. In his first eight games, Jacobs saw an average of four targets on 14 routes run per game. In his last two games, he’s averaging 6.5 targets on 27.5 routes run. He played on a career-high 85% of the snaps in Week 13 as well, so there’s a lot of reason to believe the Raiders will continue to give him a heavy workload down the stretch. A solid matchup against the Chiefs awaits Jacobs in Week 14.
Devonta Freeman, Baltimore Ravens
At 29 years old, Freeman has slowly become a workhorse for the Ravens and we’re partying like it’s 2016! Since the Ravens’ Week 8 Bye, Freeman has gotten 18.2 opportunities per game playing on average 60% of the snaps. But what’s even more impressive is that his workload is increasing, even with Latavius Murray back in the mix. Here is Freeman’s RB opportunity share starting in Week 11 – 61% > 58.6% >> 81.5%. He had an 81.5% RB opportunity share in Week 13 while Murray handled just 15.4% of the RB work on a season-low 19% of the snaps. It’s abundantly clear John Harbaugh trusts Freeman to protect the team's most prized possession, Lamar Jackson, and thus he’ll continue to be out there and getting the bulk of the work as a result.
Other Risers: Mike Williams, Laquon Treadwell, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, Tyler Conklin, Austin Hooper
Fantasy Football Fallers for Week 14
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
After looking like a true alpha in his first five games, Bateman has cooled off in his last two. He had been averaging 6.8 targets on 65% of the snaps those first five games. In the last two games, he's averaging just 2.5 targets on 45% of the snaps. In fact, in Week 13, Bateman played behind both Devin Duvernay and Sammy Watkins, running fewer routes (18) than both those guys (29 and 26, respectively). This is not a good development for the rookie. While this might be a good opportunity to buy-low in dynasty formats, you'll want to proceed with caution in redraft leagues as we head into the fantasy playoffs.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Elliott was the overall RB4 from Week 1 to Week 6. Since the Cowboys' Bye in Week 7, Elliott is just the RB24. Before the Bye, he averaged 20.3 opportunities per game, playing an average of 72% of the snaps. After the Bye, he's averaging just 16.7 opportunities per game and playing an average of 62% of the snaps. Zeke topped 69 rushing yards in five of his first six games. But since then, he hasn't topped 51 rushing yards in any of his last six games. Not only is Elliott dealing with a knee issue, but Tony Pollard has been playing at an elite level, averaging a whopping 5.63 yards per carry on 107 rushing attempts this season. A tough matchup against the up-and-coming Washington Football Team is on the horizon.
Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions
With D'Andre Swift sidelined for Week 13, Williams was supposed to be a smash RB1 play. That didn't end up happening, but it's his usage that makes him a faller heading into Week 14. After playing on 63% of the snaps in Week 12 when Swift went down, Williams played on just 47% of the snaps in Week 13. Godwin Igwebuike, while only seeing four opportunities, played on 39% of the snaps and ran 24 routes to Williams' 12. The Lions figure to be in a few negative games scripts the rest of the way (@ DEN, vs. ARI, @ ATL, @ SEA), which could continue to result in more Igwebuike and less Williams, even if Swift continues to miss time due to his shoulder injury.
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
It feels like every week one of the Broncos' pass-catchers finds themselves on this weekly column. This week, it's Fant. He played on a season-low 75% of the snaps in Week 13 and is now averaging just 4.5 targets per game in his last four games since Jerry Jeudy returned to the lineup. Fant had been averaging seven targets per game in his first seven games of the season, so we've seen a massive decrease in usage for a guy that was once considered a must-start in all formats. Meanwhile, Albert Okwuegbunam has averaged 3.4 targets per game in his last five games compared to just 2.5 per game in his first four games of the season. Believe it or not, Fant is no longer a must-start at the tight end position.
Other Fallers: Odell Beckham Jr., Chase Claypool, Latavius Murray, Tevin Coleman, DeeJay Dallas
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