RADIO
We're treated with an in-between kind of slate as we have six games on tap for Saturday night. There are a few matchups that stand out from a DFS perspective in the Rockets-Grizzlies and Kings-Cavs matchups, though the Nuggets-Spurs and Jazz-Wizards are also appealing. Butler and Adebayo remain out for the Heat, which again opens up a ton of value on the Miami squad. Kevin Porter Jr. is a true question mark for the Rockets, so that's a situation that's worth monitoring as we move throughout the day. Let's get to it.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 12/11/21. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
De'Anthony Melton - PG/SG, MEM vs. HOU ($5,100 DK, $5,800 FD)
Ja Morant is out again and Melton holds a solid 23.1% usage rate and averages 1.13 FPTS/min without him on the floor - he should easily be able to take advantage of the Rockets' poor guard defense in this one. They're allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the point guard position, so this is definitely a matchup where at least a few Grizzlies' guards can crush their price tags tonight. The return of Dillon Brooks dings Melton's potential ceiling slightly, but he's definitely in play with a projection of 25 minutes at his mid-tier price.
Caleb Martin - SG/SF, MIA vs. CHI ($3,500 DK, $4,900 FD)
You're going to want to mix in a decent amount of value from Miami as there are plenty of options to choose from with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo continuing to miss time. Martin has stepped up big recently, shooting 58.5% FG% (52.6% 3PT%) and averaging 27.3 DK points over 27.5 minutes per game over his last five games. He has exceeded 30 minutes in each of his last two contests and just went for 49 DK points against the Bucks on 12/8. Additionally, his rates see a huge jump to an 18.7% usage rate and 0.97 FPTS/min with the two Miami stars off the floor. This certainly isn't the best game environment as it holds the lowest implied total on the slate and the Bulls are tough on defense, but this kind of value is extremely difficult to ignore.
DRAFTKINGS ONLY PICK:
Terence Davis - SG/SF, SAC vs. CLE ($3,700 DK; $5,700 FD)
There must be something going on with the algorithm over at DraftKings - I've never seen a full $2,000 price difference on a player between the two sites. He has played between 22 and 30 minutes in four straight contests, and he has averaged 35.4 DK points in that stretch. He hasn't been efficient shooting the ball, but that literally has zero impact on his DFS score so we can look past it. The Rockets-Kings game is profiling to be a great one to target for DFS lineups tonight as neither team plays much defense at all, and getting to standout value play in a game environment like this is a gift. This is simply an egregious misprice on DraftKings and pretty close to an auto-play on that site, outside of large-field GPP's.
Others to consider: Tyus Jones ($6,400 DK, $5,800 FD), Kyle Lowry ($7,700 DK, $6,700 FD), Kyle Lowry ($7,700 DK, $6,700 FD), Ricky Rubio ($5,200 DK, $5,900 FD), Darius Garland ($7,800 DK, $7,600 FD)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jaren Jackson Jr. - PF/C, MEM vs. HOU ($6,400 FD, $7,500 DK)
Everything is lining up for an explosion game here. The only scenario that you'd want to get away from JJJ is as a tournament pivot if his rostership gets to unreasonable levels. He's just simply way too cheap on FanDuel and while his DraftKings salary is a little tougher, he's still right at the very top of the player pool at the position as his floor won't absolutely crush you and his ceiling is right around the 50 FPTS mark in this matchup. Memphis rates out as the #1 team to target tonight according to my K-Rate model, and it's for good reason as the game holds the highest implied total on the slate, the fastest projected pace on the slate, and features the two worst defenses on the slate (in terms of FPPG allowed as well as defensive rating). Ja Morant continues to be out and now Dillon Brooks is in the COVID protocol, and Jackson Jr. holds a monster 34.4% usage rate and 1.32 FPTS/min with the star off the floor this season. The Rockets absolutely bleed points to the PF position and there's no reason Triple-J can't crush 5x value tonight. Note: Brooks is going to play tonight, but Jackson Jr.'s rates are still way up there at a 30% usage rate and 1.29 FPTS/min with just Morant off the floor. He's still very much in play and could definitely approach his ceiling in this matchup.
P.J. Tucker - PF/C, MIA vs. CHI ($3,100 DK, $4,400 FD)
Yes - I hate playing him too. He has always been an extremely low-usage player and that certainly hasn't changed this season as he's averaging an 11.6% usage rate even with Morris, Butler, and Adebayo off the floor. That being said, he holds a somewhat decent 0.79 FPTS/min rate with those players out, and he can certainly take advantage when the matchup is right. He put up 40.25 DK points over 35 minutes in his last game (vs. MIL) and while that came out of nowhere, the Bucks are allowing the eighth-most FPPG to opposing PF's this season. His matchup tonight, the Bulls, are even worse in that category as they're allowing the fifth-most FPPG to the position and the second-most FPPG to the position over their last seven games. It feels a bit like point-chasing after his big game, but he's $3,100 on DK for crying out loud - you need just 15.5 DK points for him to hit 5x value. He's appealing on FanDuel as well but to a lesser degree.
Evan Mobley - PF/C, CLE vs. SAC ($6,700 DK, $7,500 FD)
This game is lining up to be a potential explosion game for the rookie out of USC. He has his fair share of clunkers mixed into his recent game logs, but he also has some upside with games of 42.25 and 38.25 DK points over his last four contests. He has increased his swats lately, recording 11 blocks over his last five games, and that bodes well against the Kings tonight. The Kings are allowing the second-most FPPG to C's this season and they permit the sixth-most blocks per game to the position as well.
Others to consider: Kevin Love ($4,400 DK, $5,100 FD), Troy Brown Jr. ($3,100 DK, $4,000 FD), Lauri Markkanen ($5,500 DK, $5,200 FD), Duncan Robinson ($3,500 DK, $4,600 FD),
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Nikola Jokic - C, DEN at SAS ($11,900 DK, $11,200 FD)
I really don't see any reason why you'd want to talk yourself out of playing The Joker tonight. He's expensive, sure, but I'm reminded of the classic expression "You get what you pay for" in this instance. He has exceeded what he'd need for 5x value in each of his last three games and has only one game below 52 DK points over his last 10 games. He's averaging 58.5 DK PPG for the entire season, which is absolutely insane. He just put up 63.75 DK points in this same matchup two days ago as he went for a typical 22/13/10/1/2 line - and he only shot 8-for-19 from the field (2-for-8 from 3PT). The Spurs haven't revamped their frontcourt since Thursday, and they're allowing the seventh-most FPPG to the position this season. He's a core play for me on both sites tonight.
Jarrett Allen - PF/C, CLE vs. SAC ($8,300 DK; $8,500 FD)
I wouldn't advise getting too many lineups with both Mobley and Allen together, but Allen is set up for another huge game and he should be less popular as his salary is now in the "uncomfortable" range. However, he has been very steadily putting up right around 40 DK PPG recently, never falling below 38 DK points and exceeding 52 DK points twice over his last 10 games. He's averaging a tidy 20.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game over his last six contests. As mentioned in the Mobley blurb, the Kings permit a ton of blocks and fantasy points to big men and you'll definitely want pieces of this appealing game environment.
Others to consider: Steven Adams ($5,400 DK, $5,500 FD), Jakob Poeltl ($6,600 DK, $6,700 FD), Tristan Thompson ($3,500 DK, Don't play on FD)
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