RADIO
Just three games on the main slate tonight as the league loaded up the schedule for Martin Luther King Day on 1/17. The Rockets-Kings game stands out in a big way as its 240-point implied total is a full 16.5 points ahead of the Jazz-Nuggets contest and 24 points ahead of the Warriors-Timberwolves affair.
The biggest injury news has already been announced as Steph Curry will not play tonight, which is a primary reason for the Warriors' low implied total. Draymond Green is doubtful for that one, so we should be treated with a lot of Wiggins (REVENGE GAME) and Poole for the Dubs. The status of the Kings' bigs is another situation to monitor as both Richaun Holmes and Damian Jones could be making their return to action tonight. Let's get to it.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 1/16/22. Remember to monitor NBA injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock. As always, feel free to follow my Twitter (@RING_DFS) - I post about a variety of things but mainly NBA DFS with my K-Rate and Positional K-Rate model. Good luck RotoBallers!
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jordan Poole - PG/SG, GSW vs. MIN ($5,400 DK, $4,900 FD)
He's going to be immensely popular, but it's important to know when to play "good chalk" in daily fantasy sports. This is one of those times. It's a three-game slate and the third-year player is priced for his typical 22-28 minute role with the stars in the lineup. He leads the team with a 32.1% usage rate and sees a nice bump to a 1.03 FPTS/min rate with Curry and Green off the floor. At the 30+ minutes he's projecting for tonight, an average game would have him reaching close to 6x value. The Wolves aren't exactly stingy against opposing guards, either, so there's a chance we get a ceiling game out of Poole tonight despite the team's low 105.75-point implied total.
De'Aaron Fox - PG, SAC vs. HOU ($8,100 DK, $8,000 FD)
Fox is my dude tonight. He's a little bit volatile for a player priced in his salary range as a lot of his fantasy production comes from scoring, but when he's on, he can be extremely valuable. This is the first time he has been priced at $8,000+ since late December, and he has hit what he'd need for 5x value tonight in five of his last 10 games. His 1.10 FPTS/min over his last five games isn't going to blow anyone's pants off, but his 29.1% usage rate over the same stretch leads the team by a mile as he's the primary playmaker and shot-taker for the fast-paced Kings. The Rockets also like to play fast and play as little defense as possible against opposing PG's, so this all lines up nicely for the Kings' star. Houston is allowing the most FPPG to opposing PG's this season and Fox just dropped 49.5 DK points on them two nights ago.
Kevin Porter Jr. - PG/SF, HOU vs. SAC ($6,500 DK, $5,800 FD)
KPJ is a solid choice over on the other side of this Kings-Rockets shootout, though his pricing on FanDuel is much more favorable. He has been struggling with his shot and his fantasy production over his last 10 games or so, which has resulted in a drastic decrease in salary that we can now take advantage of. The matchup with the Kings on Friday proved to be the remedy that Porter needed as he dropped 40.25 DK points in 31 minutes of action. He only shot 1-for-7 from deep, so there's still plenty of room for an even bigger game here tonight in the same exact matchup. The Kings are almost as bad as the Rockets are against opposing PG's, allowing the third-most FPPG (and most real-life PPG) to the position on the season.
Others to consider: Will Barton ($5,900 DK, $5,700 FD), Andre Iguodala ($3,700 DK, $4,000 FD), Tyrese Haliburton ($7,800 DK, $7,700 FD)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Andrew Wiggins - SF, GSW vs. MIN ($6,600 DK, $5,800 FD)
Wiggins is a lot more appealing over on FanDuel, but both he and Iguodala can be deployed over on DraftKings as well. He averages a paltry 0.79 FPTS/min with Curry and Green off the floor this season, which is actually a significant dip from his 0.93 FPTS/min average with them on the floor. However, his 27.9% usage rate with the stars out is what we're targeting here as that's a mighty high number for a player at his price. The matchup has its bright spots, too, despite the low implied total. It's usually a fool's errand to go too deep into chasing narratives, but there are absolutely exceptions to this rule. Wiggins has a notable history with the Wolves as he played six seasons there and the high expectations for the former #1 pick never really materialized. As payback, he has averaged 26 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game in four games against his former squad. In the most recent game (11/10/2021), he put up 35 points, four rebounds, and two steals. The Wolves allow the fifth-most FPPG to opposing SF's and I'm all over Wiggy at this price.
Marvin Bagley III - PF, SAC vs. HOU ($5,600 DK, $5,600 FD)
Bagley exploded for 48.75 DK points as he put up an efficient 26/13/1/2 line over 33 minutes against the Rockets on Friday. It was the embattled forward's second-straight value-crushing performance as he recorded a solid 31.25 DK-point effort in his previous game against the Lakers. He gets the Rockets again tonight, and it shouldn't be surprising that they don't defend PF's well, because they don't defend any position well. Houston's allowing the second-most FPPG to the PF position for the season, and the most FPPG to PF's over their last seven games. A repeat of Friday's performance may not be in the cards, but he shouldn't have any trouble hitting 5-6x value at his salary.
Note: You'll want to dial back exposure a little bit if Richaun Holmes and/or Damian Jones are ruled in, though there's a good chance they'd have their minutes limited anyway. Keep an eye out for news and adjust accordingly.
Christian Wood - PF/C, HOU vs. SAC ($8,000 DK, $7,300 FD)
Others to consider: Jae'Sean Tate ($5,800 FD), Jeff Green ($3,800 DK), Alperen Sengun ($3,800 FD), Harrison Barnes ($6,100 DK), Aaron Gordon ($5,200 FD)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Nikola Jokic - C, DEN vs. UTA ($12,000 DK, $10,900 FD)
DraftKings kept Jokic priced up where he should be, but FanDuel didn't follow the same tactic as the reigning MVP is too cheap on the blue site. Denver has played in two blowouts and two low-scoring affairs over their last four games, which has resulted in some "floor" outputs for the Joker (57, 43.5, 50.75, 56.5 DK points). Jokic has had his share of struggles against Gobert and the Jazz in his career, but he has been mostly lights-out over his last seven. In that stretch, he has posted slash lines of (most recent to oldest): 26/21/11/2, 24/9/13/1, 47/12/5/2/1, 35/14/9/2/1, 30/11/7/3, and 30/21/10/2. Those are some absolutely insane performances. His only "miss" came in the game where he played just 15 minutes. This season, the Jazz surprisingly rank in the bottom-half of the league in FPPG allowed to opposing C's, and they're allowing the fifth-most FPPG to opposing C's over their last seven games. Fire up Joker.
Others to consider: Richaun Holmes ($5,300 DK, $5,400 FD)
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