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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my PGA DFS Pivots for DraftKings! This week, the PGA event is the Honda Classic. I am excited to join RotoBaller and assist in any way possible to help make us all some money in PGA DFS!
This article is specifically geared towards tournaments plays. Pivoting can be easily defined as shifting from a highly owned golfer to a lesser-owned golfer at a similar price point. Pivoting helps create leverage in DFS. Leverage allows us to gain an advantage over the field in GPPs. This Leverage increases our chances to win a tournament. In GPP DFS, we are competing with thousands of other entries. Pivoting and creating leverage helps separate ourselves from these other entries.
The separation allows us to maximize our chances of winning a GPP. An example of this would be if golfer A is $9,000 and 30% owned, and golfer B is $8,900 and 10% -- we could pivot off golfer A and go to golfer B for the leverage. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
Honda Classic: DFS Lineup Pivots
Pivot Off Billy Horschel ($9,600) to Alexander Noren ($9,300)
On paper, Billy Horschel has great form heading into The Honda Classic. He arrives in Florida off two straight top 15-place finishes. In his last start in Phoenix, Horschel gained 4.1 strokes off-the-tee and .6 strokes on approach. It was Horschels’s first time in four starts that he gained strokes on approach. His results so far this season really depend on how well he has performed on the greens with his putter. He has yet to lose strokes on the greens this season and in each of his last two starts, he has gained over five strokes putting. Horschel is currently projected to be one of the highest-owned golfers in the field. On a course with so much water and danger, I would want to roster a golfer at high ownership who has been hitting the ball consistently. Unfortunately, Horschel has not shown that consistency.
Alexander Noren is currently projected to be half the ownership of Horschel. Noren differs from Horschel as he has gained strokes on approach in four straight tournaments. Secondly, Noren has also gained strokes tee-to-green in three straight starts. This week, the Swede returns to a Bermuda putting surface where he has had more success than Poa surfaces. In 2018, Noren finished third at this event. That week he gained 8.2 strokes tee-to-green and seven strokes putting.
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Pivot Off Aaron Wise ($8,400) to Gary Woodland ($8,200)
Aaron Wise is currently projected to be one of the highest owned golfers in the $8,000 range. Wise is simply not showing the form we would want to see in a popular golfer. While he has good course history at this event, I am worried about his recent performances. In his last three starts, Wise is averaging -2.9 strokes tee-to-green, -.86 strokes off-the-tee, and -.5 strokes on approach. His course history may not matter if he must take multiple penalties due to poor ball striking.
Gary Woodland is also not in great form heading into the Honda. However, Woodland is currently projected to be almost half the ownership of Wise. Woodland will need to improve his ball striking to contend this week. But he will likely be comfortable this week. Woodland has played this event eight times and has not missed a cut. In 2017, he finished in second place and gained 8.4 strokes tee-to-green. With the ownership discount, Woodland could be a nice pivot.
Pivot Off Lucas Glover ($7,400) to Aaron Rai ($7,400)
Surprisingly, Lucas Glover is projected to be one of the highest owned golfers in the $7,000 range. It is surprising because Glover is a notoriously-volatile player and not the type of golfer that I like to play as chalk. In his last two starts, he has lost strokes off the tee. At Pebble Beach, he lost 5.6 strokes total. As a popular play, Glover does not offer much security.
Aaron Rai is known as an excellent driver of the golf ball. When he was on the European Tour, he was consistently in the top 10 in accuracy off-the-tee. Before last week, Rai gained strokes off-the-tee in six straight tournaments. Rai is currently projected in the single digits ownership-wise. At a course that demands accuracy, Rai is one of the best in the field.
Good luck with those tournament lineups this week and make sure you check out all the other PGA DFS content we have to offer here at RotoBaller!
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