RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~165 pick
CURRENT ADP: ~185 overall
ANALYSIS: Another Cardinals prospect that flew once he left St. Louis, García crushed 31 home runs and swiped 16 bags in 149 games for Texas last season (622 PAs). This came after he posted similar numbers at Triple-A for St. Louis in 2019 (32 HR, 14 SB in 132 games). But the concerns are valid, as he has plenty of swing-and-miss to his game. García only hit .211 in the second half after hitting. 270 in the first. In fact, outside of a torrid May with 11 HR, 5 SB, and a .312 average, García didn’t hit above .242 or slug more than six home runs in any other month. Though he did steal seven bases in September to bring some of us to Titletown.
However, let’s re-frame this and realize this was a 28-year-old rookie who must learn to adjust to MLB-level pitching and analytics. And even when the average faded down the stretch, he’s got speed to burn which can float his fantasy value throughout cold spells. The power-speed threat for García is real and you can’t steal first base, but an offseason as a starter coming off 2021’s breakout should give him his best chance at playing chess with MLB pitchers in 2022. It is worth this lowly pick to find out.
Of the 43 players who hit at least 30 HRs last year, García was one of 14 with double-digit steals. Of those 14 with at least 30 HRs and 10-plus steals, the next lowest in ADP is Jorge Polanco at around pick 77. You then have a 100-pick gap until García! That’s an aggressive indictment of García’s tools and I won’t stand for it. Let's just hope he really worked at plate discipline this offseason.
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