Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 3

Welcome to the 2021 edition of "Are You For Real?" This is a weekly column where we dissect surprisingly good starts from under-rostered and unheralded hurlers to try and determine whether they can maintain their performance, or if it was just a flash in the pan.

Week 3 was another good one in the baseball world, as we saw a flurry of dominant starts from pitchers available in more than 50% of Yahoo leagues. This week we're breaking down a former top prospect in Alex Cobb, a current top prospect in Dane Dunning, and someone who was never really a prospect in JT Brubaker.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 04/19/2021.

JT Brubaker, Pittsburgh Pirates

29% Rostered

2020 Stats: 47.1 IP, 4.94 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 2.82 K/BB ratio

04/16 @ MIL: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Brubaker was in full control Friday night, fanning eight Brewers on 83 pitches while allowing just one run to score. It was the second career quality start for Brubaker, and he now owns a sparkling 1.76 ERA through his first three starts. Brubaker entered the season largely unknown and was seen as a back-end rotation filler for one of the worst teams in baseball. The 27-year-old righty is taking advantage of his opportunity, but the question remains, is there anything fantasy managers can take advantage of with JT?

Originally a sixth-round pick out of Akron back in 2015, Brubaker toiled away in the minors before making an uninspiring MLB debut in 2020. Although his rookie campaign left much to be desired, Brubaker did post some impressive numbers in the minor leagues, including a 2.81 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in 2018, and a 2.28 ERA in the minors in 2019. Granted, that was only 27.2 innings. While the results were solid, Brubaker’s low strikeout numbers (7.7 K/9 between 2018-19) kept him off prospect lists and off the fantasy radar.

The lack of strikeouts isn’t surprising with Brubaker when taking a deeper look at his repertoire. He throws five different pitches, most commonly his four-seam fastball, sinker, and slider, three pitches that he’s thrown a combined 73.7% of the time this season. He also throws an occasional curveball and will throw a changeup to opposite handed batters. It looks like a solid repertoire on paper, but none of these pitches rate particularly well in terms of movement or velocity, and Brubaker does not posses a pitch that can generate consistent strikeouts.

Brubaker’s best pitch has been his sinker, which opponents are hitting just .059 against this season and .232 against all time. The sinker has a 56.1% groundball rate all time, and has a -4-degree average launch angle against this year. Brubaker has hammered the zone with this pitch more often in 2021, raising his zone rate from 56.5% to 66.7%. He’s also done a better job of keeping the pitch down and in to right-handed hitters. Below is a sinker heatmap comparison of 2021 (top) and 2020 (bottom).

Those low and inside sinkers are hard to elevate and the biggest reason for Brubaker’s exceptional groundball rate this year. These rates are far from normalized, and Brubaker doesn’t have enough of a track record for us to buy into his command yet, but he does have the tools of a ground ball pitcher and this would be his ticket to major league effectiveness. That’s all well and good for Brubaker, but ground balls don’t have the same fantasy impact nor are they are predictive of future success as strikeouts. Brubaker struck out eight in this start, so how can he sustain these great strikeout numbers?

In short, he can’t. Well, nothing in his profile suggests Brubaker can be a good strikeout source. He only got ten whiffs in this start, and his slider only has a mediocre 30% whiff rate this season. He got an uncharacteristic amount of whiffs from his sinker and four-seamer, two pitchers that had whiff rates below 20% in 2020. Furthermore, Brubaker took advantage of a Milwaukee lineup that has struck out 27% of the time this season, the sixth-highest rate in the majors. The Brewers were also without Christian Yelich, Kolten Wong, and Lorenzo Cain, their best hitter and two of their best contact hitters respectively. Brubaker will throw an impressive slider every once in a while, but based on how his stuff grades and his minor league numbers, it would be hard to expect a K/9 much higher than 8.0.

Strikeouts notwithstanding, I’m still not all that interested in Brubaker. He has struggled to pitch deep into games, with this being just his second time completing six frames, and he plays for perhaps the worst team in baseball. Of course that limits his wins upside, but it’s deeper than that for pitchers on bad teams. Pitchers on bad teams tend to have bad defenses behind them, which is true for the Pirates infield outside of Ke’Bryan Hayes. Philip Evans has been good at third in his stead, and if he could secure a full time role at second or first base when Hayes returns, it would help Pirates pitchers. Beyond that, I don’t trust managers and coaches on bad teams as much either.

These examples are going to be in another universe compared to Brubaker, but think of how Pirates pitchers like Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, and Joe Musgrove have thrived outside of Pittsburgh. Or how Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, and (sort of) Alex Cobb have had success when leaving Baltimore. I’m still interested in all talented pitchers regardless of where they play, but organizations like this have proven to me that they can’t manage or develop pitching, which makes me less excited for their fringy pitchers compared to players I value equally on other teams.

Verdict:

Brubaker may not be the breakout star of 2021, but he has thrust himself into the streaming discussion, which is more than we could’ve said for him heading into the season. His sinker has gotten good results and Brubaker can be an effective ground ball pitcher, but the strikeouts likely won’t last. He doesn’t have much value outside of deep leagues or as a streamer. He’s usable in a pinch and probably won’t destroy your ratios on any given night, which could make him a boring but semi-reliable type of pitcher. Although they have different styles, think of the best version of Trevor Williams; that's what Brubaker could be. As things are lined up now his next start is Thursday at Detroit, and Brubaker is a fine stream in that matchup.

Alex Cobb, Los Angeles Angels

14% Rostered

2020 Stats: 52.1IP, 4.30 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 2.11 K/BB ratio

04/12 @ KC: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

Cobb was dominant against the Royals last Monday, posting his first double-digit strikeout total since 2014. Once a budding ace with the Rays (2.82 ERA between 2013-14), Cobb’s career took a downturn after he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015, and he’s struggled to recapture the success he once had. Despite his flaws, Cobb has a habit of teasing fantasy players every so often by showing flashes of his old self.  Today we’ll look to answer the question that has plagued philosophers for centuries: Is Alex Cobb back?

Back might be a relative term for Cobb, because while he looked every bit the part of a stud at one point, it’s been six years since his surgery. He’s spent more of his career being bad than good. It would be unreasonable to expect the weathered, 33-year-old arm of Alex Cobb to sustain his pre-injury performance at age 25, but Cobb still possesses enough raw talent that he could put it together and be an effective starter. He uses a three-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, a curveball, and his heralded splitter. Nicknamed “The Thing” when Cobb was a prospect, his split-change is among the nastiest pitch any pitcher throws in baseball. Don’t take my word for it, have a look at a few of Cobb’s splitters from this most recent start.

I know Jorge Soler can’t hit a beach ball right now, but you really can’t blame him for that swing. That thing is unhittable. Cobb will live and die by the splitter, so let’s dive into his first two starts and see if the splitter is performing up to snuff.

The surface results on Cobb’s splitter have been spectacular thus far, as opposing hitters have managed just a .154 AVG and .269 SLG against the pitch. Hitters have been wholly unable to square up the splitter as well, with an 84.9 MPH average exit velocity and a 0-degree average launch angle when putting Cobb’s splitter into play. And that’s only if batters can put the pitch in play, as they’ve flailed at it for a 46.7% whiff rate. That is 10% higher than his 2020 whiff rate, which was also a career-high for Cobb. Although it’s only been two starts, Cobb looks to have gone all-in with his splitter, as he’s throwing it 44.8% of the time, which would be the highest usage rate of his career by about 9%. The movement and spin of this pitch hasn’t really changed, which is good thing since it’s already known to be an effective pitch. The fact that Cobb is using it more often is quite encouraging, as that alone should lead to an improved strikeout rate and better run prevention. With this pitching style Cobb could follow a similar path to the Giants righty Kevin Gausman and see a later-career resurgence.

Gausman is the easy comparison here since both he and Cobb throw a plus splitter and were once teammates in Baltimore. Cobb probably can’t reach the same level as Gausman because Gausman throws much harder and has a more effective fastball. Cobb only throws a sinker, which is already a dying pitching style in today’s game, but batters have had an especially easy time with Cobb’s sinker. Opponents have hit .500 against the pitch thus far this season with a .667 SLG and 98.4 MPH average exit velocity. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but last season batters hit .353 with a .588 SLG against the splitter. Cobb has had a wicked case of gopheritis pretty much since he signed with Baltimore and the sinker is the reason. Getting out of Camden Yards should help, though Angel Stadium isn’t exactly cavernous.

As much as I want to see an Alex Cobb breakout, his bad fastball will prevent him from becoming a reliable, every turn starter in fantasy. Earlier I stated that Cobb will live and die by the splitter, which does have some truth to it, but Cobb’s curveball has been an effective offering over the last two years as well. Batters are hitting under .250 against the pitch with a ground ball rate above 54% in both 2020 and 2021. It at least gives him something else to throw that can keep hitters off balance. At this point in his career, Cobb is a high-end junkballer with a horrendous heater. If he doesn’t have his splitter on a given day, then look out because Cobb could be in line for a shelling. Still, he’s got enough strikeout upside that he’s usable in good matchups. Cobb is the type of pitcher I like to stream in head-to-head categories leagues when I’m already behind in pitching stats and trying to make up ground. A high-risk, high-reward arm that could strike out a dozen, or surrender half a dozen. His next start is scheduled for Thursday at Houston, and I wouldn’t use him there unless Houston is still without Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez.

Verdict:

Cobb’s splitter is for real, and with increased usage should come increased strikeouts. While his splitter is nicknamed “The Thing”, his sinker could be nicknamed “The Meatball”, because batters have teed off on that pitch. With his splitter and an effective curveball, Cobb can probably work around this deficiency more often than not, but he is liable to get blasted on any given start. Use him situationally as a streamer, depending both on matchup and your team’s situation that week. Need to make up ground in pitching? Roll out Cobb. Protecting ratios? Avoid. He’s a sit next time out against the Astros unless their lineup is still neutered due to COVID issues.

Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers

36% Rostered

2020 Stats: 34.0 IP, 3.97 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 2.69 K/BB ratio

04/17 vs. BAL: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

Dunning was the prize of the Lance Lynn trade this offseason, and while he had a promising rookie campaign for the White Sox last season, he didn’t get much fanfare heading into 2021 because Texas seemed hesitant to take the reins off of Dunning. Wanting to protect their investment, the Rangers were being cautious with Dunning, capping his pitch count at around 70. Even though he made it through six innings in his most recent start, Dunning still only threw 75 pitches. Even with pitch count concerns, Dunning has been so good that fantasy managers can’t ignore him anymore, and as long as he’s pitching well, Texas should start letting him go deeper into games. Pitching well is the key term here because Dunning won’t make it too far if he can’t keep up his dazzling performance.

Dunning has gotten it Dunn with a three-pitch mix consisting of a sinker, slider, and changeup. He has thrown the occasional curveball and cutter this season, but both pitches are used less than 5% of the time. The most interesting change for Dunning this season is his increased sinker usage and he abandonment of the four-seam fastball. Last season Dunning threw a sinker 39.8% of the time and he threw a four-seamer 20.8% of the time, but he has yet to throw a four-seam fastball in 2021. That was probably for the best. Batters enjoyed seeing Dunning’s four-seamer last season, hitting .364 with a .545 SLG against the pitch. His sinker has fared much better, with a .167 AVG and .222 SLG between 2020-21. Perhaps this was Dunning’s decision or it was coached into him by the Rangers staff, but either way it’s working for him thus far.

While the sinker has yielded good results for Dunning to date, he likely won’t maintain a .197 BABIP with the pitch. It has below average velocity (90.4 MPH) and spin rate (2072 rpm), so it’s fair to say that Dunning has had some fortunate results with this pitch. The best pitch in Dunning’s arsenal is his slider, which has been an extraordinary source of whiffs for Dunning in his young career. He had a 43.5% whiff rate with the pitch last season and has a 37% whiff rate through his first three starts. His slider is on the slower side with an 80.2 MPH velocity, but it has above average vertical movement and horizontal break, which gives it a sweeping downward trajectory to right-handed batters. Here’s one of Dunning's best sliders from this start.

His catcher Jonah Heim was fired up by that pitch, probably because he knows he doesn’t have to face that bender in the box himself. That was Dunning’s final pitch of the game, which shows how committed the Rangers are to managing his pitch count. He looks like he could’ve gone another inning and the Rangers shaky bullpen immediately coughed up the lead once Dunning left, but Texas is probably thinking about the bigger picture. It makes sense for their organization, but us selfish fantasy players want Dunning to be stretched out already.

Obviously, the additional innings and strikeouts would be nice, but I’d also like to see Dunning get stretched out and go deeper into games because I want to see how he fares going a third time through the order. The biggest hesitation I have with Dunning is that he hasn’t been tested at all this season. He has not faced an above average offense by wRC+ standards yet, and his most recent foe, the Orioles, are especially bad. As a team Baltimore has an 83 wRC+ and a league-worst 28.5% strikeout rate heading into play Monday. We don’t know how Dunning will react when pressed deeper into action or when facing tough lineups, and that’s why I hold off on making him a hard add in all (or most) league formats.

Verdict:

There’s a lot to like about Dunning. He has removed his worst-performing pitch, the four-seam fastball, from his repertoire in 2021. He is using a more effective sinker as his primary fastball. Dunning also has an above average slider that should be able to generate whiffs and produce strikeouts regularly. He’ll likely experience regression on batted balls considering his .231 BABIP and .172 BABIP on the sinker, but Dunning could still post a sub-4 ERA once things normalize. It would be nice to see his pitch count rise over his next few starts because he has been rather untested this season. Of all the pitchers covered this week, Dunning is the one I’d most like to add. I think he should be picked up in any league deeper than 12 teams, and could be added in a 12-teamer if you need pitching and want to stash upside.

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