Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher BABIP

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: FIP and xFIP

The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory, pitchers control only Ks, BBs, and home runs allowed. Therefore, Ks, walks, and dingers are […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Lineup Spot

You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pull%

We have previously determined that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way to illustrate […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Plate Discipline

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff a lot tend to continue […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Batted Ball Distribution (Hitters)

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not always the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and the manner in which batters make contact. […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Barrels

Last time, we looked at how exit velocity (or EV) is only one piece of the fantasy analysis puzzle. Baseball broadcasts will commonly cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement their EV figures, but it is given in terms of degrees. Am I evaluating a baseball player or trying to find the hypotenuse of an isosceles […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: BABIP for Hitters

The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember. Many know […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Exit Velocity

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: HR/FB

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: An Introduction

Hello, fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. Over the next two months, this series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use […]

Champ or Chump: Shed Long and Tommy Edman

With 2019 basically in the books, a lot of fantasy baseball content is starting to focus on 2020: namely early picks in 2020. While a lot of owners agonize over whether to take Christian Yelich or Ronald Acuna Jr. with the second overall pick, the truth is that the decision isn't likely to matter so […]

Champ or Chump: Tim Anderson and Jorge Soler

With only a week and a half left to go in the regular season, most fantasy owners either have their leagues won, have moved onto other things, or are finishing up their H2H playoffs. If you're one of the lucky few who still has a reason to care if your starting SS is getting a […]

Champ or Chump: Nico Hoerner and Ketel Marte

Is it just me, or are an unusual number of superstars missing time due to injury down the stretch? If you're looking for a Christian Yelich replacement, Trent Grisham was previously covered in the column as an intriguing add with playing time concerns. Those playing time concerns have now evaporated, so Grisham is an astute […]

Champ or Chump: Kevin Cron and Gavin Lux

While September callups are typically associated with Quad-A guys that fantasy owners are never going to hear from again, there were quite a few interesting names summoned this year. Kevin Cron of the Arizona Diamondbacks (and younger brother of C.J. Cron) could produce big power numbers if he gets a chance to play, making him […]

Champ or Chump: Ryan McMahon and Victor Robles

Every draft season, it seems like somebody who had a hot September the previous season ends up overdrafted and ruining their fantasy owner's chances. One of the hallmarks of a successful fantasy season is avoiding these pitfalls, but it can be tough to distinguish legitimate breakouts from flashes in the pan. It's still early, but […]

Champ or Chump: Will Smith and Rafael Devers

The end of August is always something of a turning point for this column. Many roto leagues are basically over, while owners in H2H formats are either waiting for their playoffs to start or looking ahead to next season. Waiver wires tend to be fairly barren even if your league is still competitive, and your […]

Champ or Chump: Josh Rojas and Aristides Aquino

While the top prospects likely to debut in 2019 have largely dried up, players coming up from the minors are probably still the best way to add a new dimension to your roster. The Arizona Diamondbacks have summoned Josh Rojas from the minors to play a utility role, and he has a chance to be […]

Champ or Chump: Trent Grisham and Anthony Santander

With NFL training camps getting started, it can be easy to abandon an underperforming fantasy baseball roster and start looking toward different sports. Your rivals might also fall into this trap, giving you an opportunity to charge up the standings and salvage your fantasy baseball season. Owners who stopped paying attention are unlikely to have […]

Champ or Chump: Bo Bichette and Yasiel Puig

The Trade Deadline has come and gone, leaving chaos in its wake. The Mets continue to prove why player agents should not be general managers, as Marcus Stroman's 2.96 ERA looks primed for regression (4.06 xFIP) and he never gets strikeouts (19.3 K% this season). While the Blue Jays appear to be on the rise […]

Champ or Chump: Tyler O'Neill and Ramon Laureano

This time of year, a lot of fantasy analysis is a simple reminder to look at your standings page. Trading Max Scherzer for Whit Merrifield and Mallex Smith is a terrible idea in terms of overall value, but if you stand to gain a lot of points in SB it could make sense for you. […]

Champ or Chump: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Lorenzo Cain

The trade deadline is rapidly approaching, both for real MLB clubs and most fantasy rosters. At this point, it can be a good idea to take a deep breath and assess what you currently have on your roster and what you might need to pursue your goals. Part of this process is evaluating whether the […]

Champ or Chump: David Dahl and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

With most of the All-Star festivities in the books, it's time to get back to managing our virtual fantasy baseball teams. While some owners may be starting to tune out, that only means that you can leverage their lack of focus to your own benefit. For example, maybe you can get a haul for "All-Star" […]

Champ or Chump: Brendan McKay

Major League Baseball has nearly a century and a half of games in the book, but we still see new things on a fairly regular basis. Shohei Ohtani's ability to both hit and pitch at an MLB standard is among the most amazing things that this author has ever seen, and Tampa Bay Rays prospect […]

Champ or Chump: Bobby Bradley and Jordan Yamamoto

Last week, we looked at a couple of players who are likely to be on first division fantasy teams. This week, we're taking a closer look at players likely to appear toward the bottom of your league's standings. Bobby Bradley is a former third-round draft pick summoned by the Cleveland Indians in an effort to […]

Champ or Chump: Max Kepler and Josh Bell

If you're in the top third or so of your league's standings, you've probably had more than a couple sleeper picks work out well. Good for you! Of course, sorting through all of those 2019 breakouts represents something of a first-world problem: who's for real, and who's extended hot streak is about to end in […]

Champ or Chump: Dallas Keuchel and Yordan Alvarez

If you've been following baseball news at all, you probably know that free agents Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel have finally signed with teams (the Braves and Cubs, respectively). You may have read a variety of conspiracy theories about how MLB owners were "cheap" or otherwise unscrupulous in dealing with each pitcher. In truth, teams […]

Champ or Chump: Zach Plesac and Mallex Smith

The calendar has officially flipped to June, which means that your league's standings page now contains useful information. No, it's not time to give up on your sixth-place team. Instead, it's time to pinpoint your unique areas of need and then make trade proposals and waiver wire acquisitions accordingly. For example, maybe the league-wide dearth […]

Champ or Chump: Bryan Reynolds and Cavan Biggio

Prospects continue to be called up faster than we can look at them, so we have two more on the docket this week. Bryan Reynolds was a second-round pick by the San Francisco Giants in 2016, but nobody seems to have noticed him raking for the Pirates. Cavan Biggio has big league bloodlines, and his […]

Champ or Chump: Brendan Rodgers and Austin Riley

The top prospects have been getting called up quickly of late, giving us plenty of options who warrant a closer look. Let's go with 22-year-old kids who took a big step forward at Triple-A this season, are infielders technically playing out of position at the big league level, and were drafted in 2015. Those criteria […]